Saturday, May 04, 2019

I Provoke Therefore I Am

The attempt by Guaido to get Maduro to go into exile failed as promised Venezuelan military support fizzled, allegedly with Russian prodding for Maduro to stay and fight. The situation is as follows:

The acute standoff between the opposition-controlled National Assembly and the Maduro regime has continued since January 2019. On one hand, Guaidó has been recognized as interim president by the United States, most Latin American countries, the European Union and a large portion of the Venezuelan populace. On the other, Maduro is supported by Russia, China, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Mexico, and by left-wing Chavista activists in Venezuela (supporters of the left-wing political ideology of Chavism, based on the ideas, programs and governing style of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor). The severe political, economic and social crisis in Venezuela has greatly diminished the popular appeal of Chavism, but the military and security forces have remained loyal to the Maduro regime. The attempt to remove Maduro on April 30 failed as rebel military personnel did not attract much active support within the ranks. Clashes between pro-Guaidó protesters and security forces ensued, and at least one protester was killed in the streets of Caracas. Nevertheless, the regime survived, and Maduro boasted about crushing the attempted coup. The pro-Kremlin media in Moscow also cheered the outcome.

Do read it all.

The Russians are just being odd:

The crisis in Venezuela has been thrust to the top of a list of long-simmering spats between the United States and Russia, with both sides entrenched in diametrically opposed positions from which they are unwilling to retreat.

Is Putin's action in Venezuela reflexive based on his bizarre determination to be America's enemy?

A former SOUTHCOM commander says the situation still is at a "tipping point:"

As Tuesday, April 30, dawned, the U.S. administration believed the tide was finally turning against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But by the end of the day, it was clear that an elaborate attempt by U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó to seize power had failed miserably, leaving U.S. officials scrambling to save face.

But don’t count Guaidó out quite yet, according to retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis, who led U.S. Southern Command from 2006 to 2009. Stavridis said the failed uprising was merely a setback in the broader attempt at regime change in Venezuela, where a deepening humanitarian crisis has forced more than 3 million people to flee the country.

I hope so. Although if it isn't, bolstering the morale of opponents is a good thing until it does reach a tipping point.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings