After five weeks of fighting LNA (Libyan National Army) forces are stalled in the southern suburbs of Tripoli. The many Islamic militias that have controlled Tripoli since 2011 are in a panic and becoming even more oppressive to the civilian population. There have been over a thousand dead and wounded so far and more than 50,000 civilians have fled their homes to avoid the fighting. The LNA can only bring up a limited number of reinforcements without risking problems elsewhere in Libya.
Normally in an offensive that is advancing, the attacker loses power from losses, supply and replacement problems as the advance continues, and the need to protect flanks and garrison captured territory. Meanwhile the defender, even as it suffers casualties, is falling back on sources of supply and replacements, while absorbing rear area garrisons as the retreat continues.
Eventually those two vectors can cross, and the attacker loses the advantage it had that allowed it to start pushing the defender back, so the attacker must halt its offensive. That is called the culminating point. Is that what is happening to Hiftar outside Tripoli?
We'll see if Hiftar can shift forces, add firepower and forces (from defection and recruitment) to regain the advantage. Perhaps GNA militias will dissolve. But they might grow stronger.
And consider who supports the GNA:
Haftar has the support of most Libyans along with Russia, most Arab states, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and now the United States as well. The UN opposes Hiftar, as does ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), the Moslem Brotherhood and pro-brotherhood nations like Turkey, Qatar and Iran.
I long wondered why we supported the GNA over Hiftar's LNA.
And note Turkey's support for the GNA. Libya was once part of the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan seeks to rebuild Turkish influence in those territories. So a victory of Hiftar will represent a defeat for Erdogan on top of his defeat due to the fall of Bashir in Sudan.
