Does Putin want to explain this logic to Iran? To Belarus? To North Korea? To China? "Vladimir Putin said NATO arms supplies to Ukraine make the alliance a “participant” in the conflict."
Democracy requires educated citizens able to participate and hold leadership accountable. Communism only requires subjects who can read the orders issued by the government. I worry that our colleges no longer educate as well as our high schools used to do. And I worry that with TikTok, the communists don't even need its subjects to be able to read. Just watch. Do our woke elites and educational establishments alarm you in this light?
Putin is gambling on the "long game" in a war of attrition and endurance to defeat Ukraine. Okay. But remember that Putin gambled on the "short game" to quickly and cheaply overthrow Ukraine's government. And failed.
British, French, and German officials are preparing a NATO-Lite and arms agreement for Ukraine in order to pressure Ukraine into granting Russia territorial concessions. Obviously, no security agreement at all and less military and financial support are the implied alternative. A lot rides on Ukraine proving it can go on the offensive and defeat the Russians. Slowing down but not reversing Putin's conquests is no lesson to Russia. Or China.And now for something completely different:
And did I mention our media can ef itself? It was bad enough to censor open debate on Covid-19's origin. But the media tossed in baseless accusations of racism. So Wuhan Flu right back at you, you fascist fluffers. Maybe it wasn't a lab leak. Although that's the way to bet. China acted like it was guilty. And we're years behind in looking at that question. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's mobilization efforts bypassed the Ministry of Defense to put irregular formations into the war quickly. The poor, dumb, bastards died for their country in large numbers. We'll see if that's a war-winning strategy. They bought time for Putin to mobilize additional military power while Wagner and the others bought time with their troops' lives. Yet despite claims that Russia can sustain these heavy losses until it wins, Putin isn't acting that way: "He has not turned back to voluntary recruitment and is unlikely to do so, but he seems to remain nervous about how much sacrifice he can impose on his people." There are limits to what Putin can do, in both the recruiting pool limits and public acceptance. Although clearly I was wrong about a lower limit to acceptance.
I wouldn't mind those with anxiety over climate change taking actions in their personal life to reduce their perceived vulnerability or take personal responsibility. But too often the climate anxious want the world to revolve around their anxiety, changing everything. Do we treat the paranoid by imprisoning everyone just in case? Are hypochondriacs treated by giving them every medicine and medical procedure they want? Do we make everyone else take preventative action to protect the hypochondriac from imagined viruses and diseases?
Recruiting woes. It would be comforting to my biases if the problems are from wokeness creeping into the military. But I can't say with confidence that it is a major component of the problem with many parts. Mind you, I think it is infecting the top civilian and uniformed leadership. The flag officers need a good purging.
And now for something completely different:
Russian troops are reacting to the failure of the Russian government to pay them. Iran and North Korea can be paid for weapons and ammo with food, fuel, aircraft, and nuclear technology. But the troops can quit-in-place, desert, or refuse to show up in the first place.
Actual religious-based patriarchy: "Girls are being deliberately poisoned in Iran using 'chemical compounds' to keep them out of schools, according to a minister." This will never get old while the mullahs rule Iran, will it?
The Army thinks it needs "new unit designs specifically for long-range precision fires, air and missile defense, and counter-unmanned aerial surveillance."
Lesson one: Don't jump in the water when in the Arctic.
Russian warships are acting more aggressively in the Mediterranean Sea? Have fun. Because you'd live a short but exciting life during a war. Exhibit A for my claim: "Three NATO aircraft carriers from the United States, Italy, and Spain just wrapped up multicarrier operations in the Mediterranean Sea[.]"
The Army doesn't know why junior officers are leaving the service. Maybe look to the upper ranks for answers.
Getting Ukraine a modern fighter: "NATO countries should immediately provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and trained personnel as part of an 'affordable' strategy, says an Air Force veteran." I have a suggestion to jump start the capability. Exactly! "'The idea is simple,' he wrote. 'Ukrainian pilots fly the jets, contracted experts work on the aircraft while providing on-the-job training to Ukrainian Air Force ground support personnel.'" Stand up the Flying Nightingales.
Ukraine is using American-supplied RAAM artillery-delivered anti-tank mines. They are being used defensively against Russian attacks. They are also useful on offense to protect flanks or to interfere with enemy mobility behind the point of attack.
Belarusian anti-government activists say they damaged a Russian A-50 AWACS-style aircraft. We'll see if that is used as a pretext by Russia to force Belarus into the war.
The proto-empire strikes back: "The European Commission president will fly to London on Monday to finalise a new Brexit deal with Rishi Sunak, despite warnings from Tory MPs that they will revolt if European judges retain a say over Northern Ireland."
Zelensky fired the Ukrainian commander responsible for the Donbas sector of the front. No explanation given. Hmmm.
And now for something completely different:
China basically conflates flying spy balloons over American territory with an American plane flying through international airspace in the Taiwan Strait. It's been 22 years since the Chinese accidentally rammed one or our planes in the region trying to elbow us away with dangerously close maneuvers.
Finland adds to European defenses. Indeed. I once worried that Finland and Sweden would be consumers of NATO strength and not providers. But since then both have stepped up in my opinion.
Green is the color of money--for the politically connected who can lobby for government rules rather than persuade consumers. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm seeing a lot of stories that the war will drag on. Honestly, with the record of the consensus I have to wonder if one side or the other is on the cusp of breaking. Although to exploit enemy brittle morale, you really need to attack.
The Russians made rapid advances out of Crimea despite the choke points and numerous irrigation canals in the Kherson region. How did that happen? A year later Ukraine says it still doesn't know. Although clearly the Ukrainians had too few troops. The story recounts the volunteer militia that rose up to blunt the drive on Odessa at Mykolaiv, which is already known. I was shocked at the speed of Russia's advance in the south. Without that failure, Ukraine would be in a far better position. I suspect Russia turned some of the leadership in the south who expected a quick Russian win.
I've had a recent spate of delivery snafus. How does this shipping path make sense?
The woke are destroying our schools and higher education by claiming that the leftists who run those institutions for decades have created systemically racist (and every "phobic" you can imagine) institutions. So sure, replace those institutions. Ef 'em. But what about the military services that the woke have turned their destructive attention toward?
The leftist demand for white hate clearly far exceeds the supply.
Electric cars still suck at "refueling". "Fast" chargers--if we get them--would mean waits of up to 40 minutes! LOL Gas stations have convenience stores. Recharging stations will need full-service, multi-course restaurants to keep you occupied. As if "Subway" is enough for the higher-income EV owners!
Also, I assume that eventually people will be able to buy EV stickers and fake magnetically attached charging cables so ICE drivers can park in EV-only parking spaces.
Don't worry! Putin will be fine: "Sending waves of young men onto the battlefield, compounded by
emigration, will result in tens of thousands of fewer births and hasten
an already long-term decline in birth rates."
I can believe this at a macro level: "The most rigorous and extensive review of the scientific literature concludes that neither surgical masks nor N95 masks have been shown to make a difference in reducing the spread of Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses." The article seems to be talking about keeping the virus from spreading through the population in general rather than individual protections. I have long been against mask mandates because I thought the former limitation is clear. I still think it makes sense to protect individuals. I want friction. And depending on mask type, user skill, threat environment, and time in that environment, at an individual level masks can make a difference. Although I'm prepared to be wrong about that. Especially as more and more of what we told was Science! is shown to be wrong. But until I see health care professionals abandon mask use I'll hold back on that issue.
In regard to the possible/likely lab leak origin of the Wuhan Flu, it is not a "conspiracy theory" to suggest that. It is a conclusion based on some information at best and speculation at worst. Calling it a conspiracy theory is just a way for the media and its government allies to rule the idea out of bounds.
The Secretary of the Army said, "Our goal is to avoid fighting a land war in Asia." I'm sure the Chinese appreciate having their potential military problems simplified, particularly on Taiwan.
Strategypage reports that Russian industry can’t keep up with Russian military requirements. And poor medical care is killing wounded troops and reducing the number of wounded soldiers who can be returned to duty.
China puts tow truck in orbit.
The politicized FBI may not be the Democrats’ Gestapo, but that’s a damn low bar to pass in America. Tip to Instapundit.
Western companies need to get out of China (via Instapundit): "This week, the CCP cell inside the Beijing office of Big Four accounting firm EY demanded that party members wear CCP badges at work in the run-up to China’s annual parliamentary meetings." Although I'll admit that Western hopes that economic growth would lead to rule of law and democracy there may simply have not happened yet. But it might not. And China might be infecting us with their oppression.
Ten thousand Gaullists marched in Paris to protest aid to Ukraine and to demand France exit the EU and NATO. For Macron, two out of three isn't bad, eh?
Singapore will buy 8 more F-35Bs in addition to the 4 they bought already.
Yep, sucks to be you. Sucks worse for the people you invaded.
I've mentioned this angle: "Vladimir Putin’s current objection to U.S. military aid to Ukraine is again ironic, given Russia was historically an active participant on the ground in Vietnam and both directly and indirectly killed Americans in efforts to defeat the United States."
Trump erred in promising the Taliban to withdraw contractor support for the Afghan government and the Afghan government erred in thinking there was no way Biden would carry out such a nonsensical agreement to withdraw all American troops--and do it so quickly. I was very unhappy with Trump and disgusted that Biden made it even worse. Pulling out of Afghanistan was the one Trump policy Biden didn't want to reverse? Don't buy the Biden spin that the withdrawal was great!
Patient Zero for America losing a war it was winning. You may question the price. Sure, we probably could have done better than we did. Or maybe we should not have fought at all. But we paid the price and lost. I'd rather have paid the price and won.
Japan will buy 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Russia can only produce 20 new tanks per month in its single tank facory. Still, that's about 20 more new tanks than America produces. All we do is rebuild tanks built long ago. And Russia wrecked Ukraine's only tank factory. And Europeans are faltering in providing Ukraine with working tanks.
The U.S. may allow Australia to produce HIMARS rockets.
Poland wants 1,400 new infantry fighting vehicles to replace its Soviet BMP-1 variants in service.
The Germans have a word for their defense awakening after Russia invaded Ukraine: Zeitenwende. There's an English word, too: bullshit. In two wars as our enemies the Germans were ferocious. Now as an ally? Sitzkrieg.
The Philippines has a lot of littorals, so American Marine Littoral Regiment units have a lot of room to exercise along with the Philippines marines.
China has port facilities for their navy in Cambodia.
The U.S. is arming Somalis to fight the jihadis.
China, 2023: "It turns out that having your ruling party alienate the entire world with a genetically engineered plague, rampant human rights abuse and widespread intellectual property theft is not conducive to continued economic success. Who knew?" Tip to Instapundit.
Why is our government doing to our power grid with green rules what Russia is doing to Ukraine's with missiles? Our enemies must be dumbfounded at our self-destructive idiocy. Hat tip and more from behind the paywall.
The "national divorce" notion is silly. We already have a system for "national separation"--federalism. We do need more federalism.
Mayor Lightfoot knows why she lost her reelection bid: "Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot attributed her election loss to racism and sexism[.]" Chicago is overwhelmingly Democrat and liberal. But it is a bastion of racism and sexism. Got it.
Fair is fair. You can't erase that stain, right? Tip to Instapundit.
Not everyone thinks the Russian army will necessarily keep showing up to die as ordered. It is possible. But Ukraine has to attack to make that happen. And the West needs to support Ukraine.
It's not the size of your tank force that matters. It's how you use it.
Ukraine denies being responsible for those drone attacks on Russian soil. I don't necessarily believe Ukraine's denial. But I don't rule that out.
Well, it's a start. It's no Mannerheim Line, that's for sure.
Damned if we do disperse aircraft. Damned if we don't. America's Pacific Air Force bases need more active and passive defenses plus better logistics.
The Army is working on ships for its Pacific intra-theater logistics needs.
Support for arming Taiwan appears strong. But Ukraine experience suggest that when the going gets tough, the support gets going away.
The E-3 AWACS replacement, the E-7, is on the way.
I never thought it was a weapon: "The illness known as Havana Syndrome reported by hundreds of U.S. intelligence and other officials overseas was unlikely to have been the work of a foreign adversary targeting American personnel, according to a new U.S. intelligence report." It thought it might be foreign eavesdropping equipment side effects. But I never saw that raised. Might be mass hysteria, basically.
"News" organizations. Gosh, why do I trust them so little? Tip to Instapundit.
Yet nobody uses this as evidence drones are obsolete: "In the last year UAVs have been heavily used by both sides. During that period Russia lost over 2,000 UAVs while the Ukrainians lost about half as many." Granted, many are small and cheap. And I assume many "losses" are explosions, as intended.
For supporting infantry against other infantry, they are adequate: "In late 2022 Russia ordered 800 T-62 tanks that were recently taken out of storage for use in Ukraine be somewhat upgraded before use." Stored T-72s and T-90s could not be used: "Many if not most of those reserve tanks had been rendered unusable because of theft of key components." I hope Western intelligence services encouraged that.
On a dating site I use it is not uncommon for liberal women to say they will not date conservative men or Trump voters. Yet I'm the intolerant one?
DARPA works on autonomous drone swarms.
If it isn't flying it isn't carrying out missions: "There’s little dispute that the F-35 Lightning II, which is flown with modifications by the Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy, can be a devastatingly effective weapon when it’s available." Can we bring down the costs to keep them flying routinely?
Ukraine developed a longer range rocket: "The Vilkha-M has a range of 110km (68 miles) and a 300mm, 485-pound warhead that can hit targets with great accuracy[.]" I wondered why Ukraine hadn't done this already. HIMARS rockets provided have a range of 50 miles. I assume Ukraine is working on one that can reach the Kerch Strait bridge.
We aren't ignoring Russia's "peace" terms. We're rejecting them. Russia will stop fighting if it can keep what it took. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Do we know what China's leaders think about war with America? I have no opinion on the author's specifics. But I've said it many times in many ways that we have no idea how China will define what is rational for them to do. China may think we are weak. China may think they are strong. China may think it has no choice but to go to war regardless of the chances of victory because of internal problems. China may miscalculate thinking we will back down in a small crisis that then expands. So it would be good to challenge our assumptions about what China thinks.
I don't know why conservatives are getting hopes up that Mayor Lightfoot was defeated. Chicago will just elect another leftist who promises that this time for sure they'll provide "true leftism".
I have high confidence the mullah regime is evil: "CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school girls." Western feminists don't give a damn.
Come on, Doctor Hanson, that's just morale-building bravado for people under Russian occupation: "Zelenskyy’s team now even talks of a victorious Ukrainian armored counteroffensive into Moscow’s Red Square." But point taken.
Putin is riding the Prigozhin tiger: "ISW assessed on February 26 that Putin has allowed the ultranationalist community to expand its influence at the expense of the Russian MoD so the Kremlin can leverage the community’s pre-established networks to recruit volunteers."
Lukashenko links his personal survival to Putin's invasion of Ukraine: "Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a package of 16 documents on March 1 that may facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese aid to Russia through Belarus." I'm conflicted on whether Belarus should be sanctioned. I don't know if that step would deter Lukashenko from helping Putin or if that would push him to openly wage war on Ukraine. As ISW notes, this does provide Chinese leverage against Russian domination.
Serbia is feeling pressure to choose Russia or the West.
Leftists have lots of rules about what you must not do. No thank you. Tip to Treacher.
Driving your child-mined EV to get the ice cream, no doubt. And now for something completely different:
Bastards: Ukraine says "Russia captured 90 percent of all PoWs during the first days of the war and currently has more PoWs than Ukraine because of their arrests of civilians."
Europeans are working to increase artillery ammunition for Ukraine.
Or maybe China's economy isn't effed: "Chinese factories are roaring back into life as the country’s economy reopens."
Wow. Democracy really does die in darkness. Attorney General Garland on why some crimes by leftists aren't being solved: "Those who are attacking pregnancy resource centers, which is a horrid thing to do, are doing this at night in the dark." Those diabolically clever bastards exploited our weak spot!
Iraq plans to gradually phase out natural gas imports from Iran. That seems wise when you consider Iran uses Iraqi money to undermine Iraq. Hopefully the "Baghdad Ballet" is ending its long run of performances.
We seem to have a lot more helium than we thought we had available to extract from the ground.
EV owners are "raping the planet, poisoning entire communities, enriching genocidal tyrants, and creating a massive hazmat problem while doing nothing to stop 'climate change.'" Oh! So close to being morally superior. Tip to Instapundit.
The Russians are still losing tanks because they can't conduct combined arms operations. Note that the problem isn't the Russian tanks. The problem is that Russians operate them. So don't get your hopes up for the pathetically small number of modern Western tanks Ukraine is getting. Ukraine will win with their old Soviet models if they can conduct combined arms operations. Western tanks will enhance that outcome but not cause it.
Good luck with that: "Israel hosted the top U.S. military officer, Army General Mark Milley,
on Friday for discussions that it said included the need for cooperation
on denying Iran nuclear weaponry." Democrats loooove mullah-run Iran.
Mali's decision to eject the French-led coalition in favor of the Wagner Group made the jihadi problem worse. Disorder is a feature and not a bug for Wagner. Wagner works for Russia. Russia wants chaos in the region to drive refugees north into Europe.
Is it really shocking that not everybody in the world is aligned with Western ideals? Really? Authoritarians like Russia will always have a receptive audience. But as long as the modern West holds firm, Russia only makes gains at the margin.
If the news media doesn't tell you a politician criminal's party affiliation, assume it's a Democrat.
America doesn't need to fight China. America can outlast China because China is weaker than believed and doesn't have long-term advantages over America. Indeed.
Defending the proto-imperial European Union's efforts to strip away the prefix. Screw that, I say.
Meanwhile the Queen of the Victim Prom prepares to regain their crown.
A Japanese think tank's wargame said that after two-weeks the Chinese were bloodily defeated in an invasion of Taiwan. The article notes the earlier CSIS wargame with similar results. Question: Was the PLA still on Taiwan at the end of two weeks? Did the Japanese game have the same flawed definitions for victory and defeat that CSIS used? I mean, I hope the game is accurate. But I don't count on it.
Still tinkering with the F-35 to make it America's prime tactical combat aircraft. How was engine vibration not detected before production?
Ukraine ordered the partial evacuation of the small liberated city of Kupiansk as Russia pushes toward it and shells it.
Bastards! "CNN reported on March 2 that Russian occupation authorities established a complex and widespread network and methodology of torturing Ukrainian civilians to coerce cooperation with Russian authorities, citing investigators and survivors of Russian torture." Allegedly, I guess.
But how many does China claim? "Japan has recounted its islands – and discovered it has 7,000 more than it previously thought." Tip to Instapundit.
Golly! Its a damn shame Austin, Texas residents are getting exactly what they said they wanted. Tip to Instapundit.
Biden sided with Congressional Republicans to reject the Washington, D.C. city council's insane proposed pro-criminal policy. Huh. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's local come-as-you-are mobilization.
Even as we worry about the threat of China's navy, the Navy will lose nearly 9% of its afloat VLS cells by retiring our cruisers with no immediate replacement. I have an old modernized solution to fill the gap.
New American ships need new power systems to generate enough electricity. There are many new needs for electricity on our ships.
Power projection: "The Navy took delivery of a new Lewis B. Puller-class Expeditionary Sea Base ship, the service announced this week." I like to think I helped pressure the Navy to build these ships. I think of USS Hershel “Woody” Williams as The AFRICOM Queen.
The U.S. doesn't have the machine tools to ramp up artillery shell ammunition production as much as it needs to. The West got a needed alarm bell on this logistics issue when Russia invaded Ukraine. But it may become a crisis before it gets solved.
Saying the AVLB going to Ukraine will allow Ukrainian forces to cross "rivers" overstates their capability. They are vehicle-carried 60-foot bridges that unfold at the edge of an obstacle. Better to say they help heavy vehicles cross streams and anti-tank ditches.
When government "gives" us things, government can deny them to certain people. Tyranny can come not just from a government stomping you down with violence, but from a government that gives you nice stuff you don't want to lose. So it is in the government's interest to make nice stuff unattainable without the government's help. The good news is we really can't afford this model much longer. The bad news is that changing it is going to hurt us as much as it does the government built up to run that model.
Getting Ukraine some tanks is ridiculously difficult: "Germany wants to buy mothballed Leopard 2 battle tanks from Switzerland to replace tanks that Berlin and its Western allies are sending to Ukraine, the Swiss government said Friday."
Who knew you could get a PhD in f**king stupidity? Tip to Instapundit.
I'm not all that worked up over wokifying Roald Dahl's books--if clearly marked as newly edited and if the original is still available for purchase or library lending. I don't recall getting worked up years ago reading that some conservatives had versions of movies available edited to remove objectionable scenes. To each their own--as long as you don't limit me to your own.
No! Way! "Face masks, once an essential Covid-19 protective measure, are now being worn by criminals to conceal their identities, according to New York police[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
And now for something completely different:
I'm sorry, but how many helmets would have to be wokified to accommodate this ridiculous demand? God help us if we're not at Peak Woke. Athletes sacrifice a lot to excel in their sport. How many swimmers enjoy shaving their body hair off? If your hair style is stopping you from competing in your sport, you don't want to compete.
Well that's just great: "Britain has reasserted its sovereignty over the Falkland Islands after Argentina pulled out of a cooperation agreement and demanded new talks over the South Atlantic territory that sparked a 1982 war between the two countries."
The Green climate nutballs' "ever-expanding climate melodrama" targets the farmers. To Hell with the clearly dangerous "the end is nigh" Green religious fanatics. Let them eat artisanal bugs. Let them swelter in the heat and freeze in the cold. Leave me alone.
Why would Russia mess with Moldova and try to open up a new front? Russia can hardly afford to risk troops and assets to supply them. And Ukraine could likely take neighboring Transnistria with the large--if old--arsenal there. Hell, NATO might intervene. And if not, a coalition of the willing within eastern NATO might do it. It's just more scary talk from Russia to stir up chaos and add to the Western angst about helping Ukraine win.
South Korea's new mobile command post.
Fresh off its BS peace proposal to let Russia keep its conquests in Ukraine, China offers a BS peace concept to let China take Taiwan without fighting. I guess China learned from Russia's failed military campaign, after all.
Will China arm and supply Russia? "Such a decision could transform the conflict - and give China's manufacturers a crucial testbed as they evaluate weapons amid fears over an invasion of Taiwan." A big effort would provoke Western sanctions on China. And China might not be able to sustain a large logistics effort across such a great distance. To me the more symbolic testbed angle of small supplies of key weapons avoids the sanctions and distance problems while benefiting China with an eye on Taiwan.
A lesson from Covid-19: "Again and again, claims to expertise turn out to have been cloaks for politicized misbehavior." And mistrust in them is our fault?
