Weekend Data Dump

In its eagerness to reject anything that Trump says, the Washington Post writes that under Trump cities are in a "golden age." Tip to Instapundit. Democracy may die in darkness, but apparently cities thrive in it!

Boom! They don't throw any ammunition out and just keep it until they use it or it blows.

Does India's revocation of Article 370 autonomy status for Indian Kashmir deny Moslems rights while allowing Hindu colonization; or enable economic development to decrease jihadi recruitment? I find it hard to believe that the violence won't deter Hindus from moving there, but I don't actually know that. Wait. What? China is complaining about the loss of territorial autonomy? Hello? Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong? And Article 370 revocation is the straw that breaks the camel's back? Really? With a bonus description of Pakistan's support of terrorism as "hybrid warfare." Which is strangely correct in that my view is that it consists of Country A invading Country B; Country A denying they have invaded Country B; and the rest of the world going along with Country A's lie.

Does the parliamentary election mean Ukraine will actually clean up corruption? Unless Ukraine wants to be a weaker version of Russia--and so lose to the larger Russia--Ukraine needs to get on that.

Post-INF treaty, the US will put intermediate range land-based conventional warhead missiles in Asia. Other than on Guam and Alaska (which doesn't make sense unless we want to target Russia), I wonder where he means given that other significant land is in allied territory. And they'd have to grant permission.

A survey of Iranian activities in the Middle East. Also, thus far Britain and South Korea have agreed to join America in Persian Gulf escort operations.

Iran once again displayed pretend advanced weapons they claim to have built. Do Iranians still believe this BS?

Giving the LCS an anti-tank missile is better than nothing, I suppose. But that is not a blue water combat capability.

Turkey threatens to go after our Kurdish friends along the border with Syria. The Kurds help fight ISIL. America, Britain, and France (and I assume others quietly) have some troops among the Kurds and oppose such an operation despite conceding that Turkey has legitimate security concerns. We hope to work something out short of a Turkish invasion.

A Naruto run at Area 51? Strip club: hold my beer.

If I'm to understand the situation correctly, Trump is a racist dictator; and he should take away all the guns from the people, with only the police and military being armed. I just don't get nuance.

The Saudi coalition continues to win slowly in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi; and the UAE, sick of the UN and corruption that promotes a humanitarian crisis, pulled their combat forces out to face Iran. And there are still jihadis running around and Yemen itself is a corrupt mess. But don't worry! The Deeply Concerned can still blame Saudi Arabia for difficulties in getting humanitarian aid to those in need!

Terror attack in Cairo. It sounds like the driver of the car bomb was going elsewhere when an accident led him (I assume) to detonate.

It should be a no-brainer to quickly negotiate and sign a trade deal with Britain to help them get the Hell out of the European Union. And it should be a fair deal despite Britain's need for our help. So we'll see. This issue confuses a lot of Americans who oddly see the proto-empire as something we should promote.

So the left admits that socialism is entrenched mediocrity? I think the professor's employer should pay her minimum wage. Because paying her more would be capitalistic. Tip to Instapundit.

The Mossad has a large net to combat its enemies--including in Venezuela where Hezbollah has long been active.

I have no problem going after white nationalists. War, even, under certain circumstances. Globally, perhaps those scum really are a growing threat. Still, unlike jihadis there is no white supremacist state that can provide logistics and encouragement. So the war angle is tougher to adopt. But by all means, combat them. And let's go after violent Antifa, too, which has the backing of the left.  Funny how that gets less coverage.

If you spread the death toll out over a couple days, nobody notices or cares. Although it is MAGA country according to Jussie Smollett ...

I eagerly await the morally superior Hollywood types to throw away all of their prop guns for making movies.

Red flag laws might be okay to prevent shootings. But I have grave reservations about whether or not the proposed system can be trusted. How do you stop people from harassing political opponents by triggering red flag provisions even though the target is no threat at all? Who do we trust to administer this? The same people who only see motives of shooters that back their existing hatreds? Just what is the experience of states that already have such laws?

You know, I read Gordan Chang on China. But I don't really know how good he is at analysis. I like what he says. But that's about what I'd like and not about what will be--or Chang's ability to analyze China's present and future.

As long as we are talking about red flag laws, how about a First Amendment red flag for Representative Joaquin Castro's abuse of his free speech rights? Like maybe before someone is killed by someone who takes his rhetoric seriously?

There are no problems, you deniers. The cars were sent by God to save us. Tip to Instapundit.

I have to believe that the Antifa morons look down on these Democratic Socialist morons. Yeah, there are no jazz hands in the Revolution. The actual Bolsheviks these morons want to support will kill them all with ice picks when the Revolution comes. Brian Dunn. Ann Arbor. Bite me/screw you. No, thank you comrade.

Watching Iran.

Russia and possibly China are testing nuclear warheads with low-yield tests. We rely on computer simulations. Over time there is a chance that errors in our programs will lead to our nukes being nothing more than inert chunks of expensive components while China's and Russia's work. Let's hope our coding isn't open to hacking, eh?

I've begged for the return of armored cavalry recon into the Army. I'd considered articles on this issue, but Major Jennings seems to own the topic, so I'll just link him again.

Oh what fresh Hell is this? This is why I don't really follow the fighting in corrupt Yemen. They fight. They split. They fight more. They make up. Repeat with different factions. My interests are killing jihadis and preventing Iran from getting a position along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping routes. But this junk gets in the way. Taking Aden is serious. But at least there was a step back from conflict. Or not. There are problem people in the government coalition between Saudi- and UAE-backed forces, to be sure. But the fracture in the anti-Houthi forces is a gift to Iran. Focus, people. Focus.

A crisis in Kyrgyzstan will "test the stability of Central Asia’s most fragile state." It's fragile. There is no stability to test. I wonder how the Russians and Chinese will react?

Turkey said that it has come to an agreement with America on a "safe zone" along the Turkish border with Syria east of the Euphrates River. Syria condemned the announcement. Although it is unclear what the depth of the zone will be, with Turks wanting way more than the Syrian Kurds seem willing to endure.

Information on mass shootings.

Fulani and Dogon and jihadis. Oh my! Good luck to the French. Mali is a less known front in the war on jihadis.

The Army is working on precision electronic warfare. Which fits the bill for my effects support system.

The next large Navy surface warship might be an even more advanced Burke destroyer. Also, the Navy wants to reverse the ratio of heavy to small ships that is currently way too top heavy. Apparently the Navy has picked a number. Long ago I wrote about this top-heavy situation. The end of history and post-Cold War peace made having fewer but more capable warships optimal. Sea control--whether in blue or brown waters--requires a lot more expendable ships. Note that the LCS did not turn out to be that cheap warship.

There are a bunch of things wrong with this article, but the idea that Iran proved in the Iran-Iraq War that they could endure casualties--and so will again if they fight America today--ignores that the Iranian morale actually broke in 1988. That's why the Iranian mullahs agreed to a ceasefire. Iran is no more willing to die in large numbers today because they died in large numbers in the 1980s than Russia is willing to endure casualties today because they died in horrific numbers in World War II. Neither have the demographics to support human wave assaults any more.

The El Paso shooter's manifesto is way different than what the media says it is. If plumbers were as bad at their job on average as journalists are, we'd all be knee-deep in water in our homes and work places.

The battle for Tripoli has dragged on since April, and the UN calls for a "humanitarian truce." Which will just allow the losing side to regroup and rearm. And because the UN recognizes the government that holds Tripoli, the UN is obviously biased in favor of that government and not Hiftar (Haftar) who controls most of the rest of Libya. In my opinion, as a general rule, a faster victory by the good guys (or less bad guys) is the most humanitarian course to follow. But instead, Libya got some of that false compassion the UN hands out.

Let's get past the grim reality that the Storm Area 51 people will either pass out in the desert trying to reach the fence or starve because there is no nearby Whole Foods Market--or any major grocery chain--to feed them. By giving up the element of surprise and telegraphing the assault, the government has had all the time it needs to move the aliens and their space ships to Area 52.

I not infrequently noted that Vice President Biden was President Obama's assassination insurance. What opponent of Obama would be willing to put Biden in the Oval Office? So don't say you weren't warned. Imagine what he'll do with the POTUS Twitter account?

After all this time, do you still believe Trump called white nationalists and neo-Nazis "fine people?" Here's another effort to debunk. People claim there are so many examples of his so-called racism. Why stick with this one obvious fabrication if that claim is true? In normal times, political people would celebrate that their opponent is kind of a dick. Now that's not enough for some reason.

Significant--if true. Tip to Instapundit.

How can there be a radiation spike with a rocket engine explosion, as happened in Russia? This may puzzle me only because I don't know very much about rocket engines, but isn't the warhead the only part of a rocket that would have nuclear material? But if so, why test a rocket with a nuclear warhead on it? Testing is done with a dummy warhead stuffed with sensors. But this sounds like just an engine test and not a rocket test. And city officials weren't trying to hide it, saying the levels died down to normal. Odd, isn't it? Or not? Oh, a nuclear isotope power source. So there you go.

I have always accepted the global warmers basic position that mankind affects the climate. But I've also said that given the fluctuations in direction of temperatures since 1950 when climate change scientists say humans first did enough to affect the climate, temperatures have gone down, then up, then flattened out. So how can human contributions be decisive compared to natural effects? So yeah, I'm predisposed to a study that says human impact is insignificant.

Let a thousand conspiracy theories bloom. It is odd. And convenient for some. Why didn't police keep a closer watch on such a high profile prisoner? But in a contest between conspiracy and incompetence, I always vote for incompetence as the reason for something. Tip to Instapundit.

Yeah, I'm kind of enjoying seeing women's sports dominated by ex-men. Enjoy your own rules. Women are learning that--as I've long observed--feminism is just the women's auxiliary of liberalism (or extreme Leftism, now), rather than being a true form of equality promotion.

For you morons out there plotting your fight against a non-existent dictatorship from your command posts in organic bakeries, this is Resistance to tyranny.

How ground forces got an air force. Recon and fire support is more responsive this way. I suspect ground forces will need their own air superiority for the "brown skies" above the tip of the spear, as I argued for in this Army magazine article.

Trump may just be massaging Kim's ego by "siding with" Kim on American military exercises in South Korea--if the exercises continue despite Trump's words--but God almighty Trump could so easily lose my support with things like this if the Democrats had the brains that God gave mossy rocks. All they have to do is not act crazy ...

Wow, Iran sure does announce a lot of new indigenously developed advanced weaponry! Odd how they never show up outside of the press conference photo-op.

Here's some more actual brave Resistance to tyranny. Some in Russia still want free and fair elections. Good luck with that.

Some red flags for future violence are completely invisible, apparently.

Michael Yon continues to report from the Hong Kong freedom demonstrations.

Screw You Guys. I'm Out!

You know, the Left has honestly managed to turn the dial to 12 (tip to Instapundit). I scarcely imagined it was possible.



I already dialed back my consumption of television news to avoid the hatred. I know that the hatred is generated by a very small number of people and amplified by the media. And I've greatly reduced my Weekend Data Dump links to things that really just piss me off because of the unfairness of it all.

I remain stunned at the Left's hatred and efforts to sow division that are based on false charges of racism and division leveled at their political foes. It's all Hitler and all racism, all the time. The Left knows so little history that they really seem to believe that Hitler was a German who wanted to reduce the rate of growth in the food stamp program in 1935.

I'm exhausted. With the idiocy. The ignorance. The hate. And the unfairness. And it is 15 months before the election.

Good God, people, we've already heard August 8th dog whistle bullshit. FFS, pull your head out of your 18.

The left-wing media amplifies the charges because they agree with the charges; and the right-wing media amplifies the charges to get a good round of outraged "how dare they?" going.

To some extent that outrage is justified by the unfairness of the charges.

Still. By watching either angle it is too easy to draw the conclusion that all liberals are as hateful as the visible Left. And I know that is not true. Twitter is tiny and the percent of a-holes on Twitter who post all out of proportion to their percentage of that tiny percentage do not define American liberals.

So I've decided to really scale back my television news viewing to the bare minimum of an hour per day maximum (Fox News weekdays from 6-7 if you are curious--and I'll keep the Greg Gutfeld show for the weekend). I'm tired of the insanity.

I'm out!



Maybe if more people tune out, the business models will fail and as a last resort they'll all just try to report on the news. I have to believe the demand for that in America is more than a niche market.

UPDATE: Away from social media which I already skip, and now the media, the country is more civil:

Seeing these real human interactions should be a reminder that when you turn on cable news and watch the panels of pundits, candidates and experts explaining how their side is better and the other side is the devil, you are watching "experts" who rarely ever observe people outside of social media.

Hate is certainly being incited.

The Sword Works With the Shield

I keep writing that I wish Germany would support a navy capable of fighting to control the Baltic Sea. Do you see why?

Russia’s Armed Forces have commenced Okeanskiy Shchit (“Ocean Shield”) 2019 naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, under the direction of the commander-in-chief of the Russian Military-Maritime Fleet (Voyenno-Morskoy Flot—VMF), Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov. The exercises, running from August 1 to 9, also involve platforms from the Aerospace Forces (Vozdushno Kosmicheskikh Sil—VKS). Okeanskiy Shchit 2019 is bringing together 49 warships and combat vessels, 20 support vessels, 58 VMF and VKS aircraft, and 10,634 military personnel.

If Russia ever does try to capture the Baltic NATO states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, covering their Baltic Sea flank will be important to Moscow.

The Germans need to step up and revive the floating debris that used to be their navy.

The European Threat

Europe without American help has the economic, demographic, and scientific base to keep a weakened Russia out of Europe. But if left on its own, Europe's long history of autocracy will return and risk a Europe that again poses a threat to America.

The unofficial reason for NATO after World War II was to "keep American in (Europe--unlike after World War I), keep the Russians (Soviets) out (of Western Europe, after the Soviets advance to the Elbe River), and keep Germany down (after starting two world wars)."

The modern purpose of NATO is to keep America in Europe, keep Russia out, and keep European autocratic impulses down. The third reason is a real threat that is easy to forget in the post-World War II time frame that we remember as the normal state of European affairs. And the first reason is the means to achieve the third.

We forget the role that America played in creating the free and democratic Europe that we wrongly assume is the natural state of now-free Europe:

And that distance [between America and Europe] is allowing Europeans to revert to their pre-World War II nature of being a mix of autocracy, monarchy, and democracy. I had to be reminded by this author that our long period of influence in Europe during the Cold War had a role in making Europe truly democratic:

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

If left alone without the benefit of American influence, Europe as a political entity will evolve in ways hostile to America, as the proto-imperial body already exhibits:

The EU wants to help Iran despite Iran's record of terrorism and support for mayhem--on top of a nuclear program. And the EU wants to shield Russia from British anger over Russia's use of poison gas on British territory to kill people.

So yeah, basically I do want the EU to die with festering boils.

Europe and America are drifting apart. This is caused by the end of the major threat that the USSR posed to the heart of Western Europe from its advanced military position on the Elbe River. And it is caused by a European elite that wants to push American power out of Europe and reclaim their autonomy that NATO with the outsized influence of America denies them.

Even a revived Russian threat is limited to eastern Europe because of the limits of Russian military power. So the counter to the drift that has taken place after 1989 is only partial.

The Euro elites wrongly claim that the European Union itself has given Europe its long peace since World War II. They despise NATO and America so much that they actually believe their own BS.

The sad fact is that without America, the USSR would have conquered Western Europe.

And without America's continued influence Europe will revert to its norm of autocracies and intra-European violence. Which will weaken Europe to the point that even a weaker Russia can exploit:

And when the EU collapses as the Persian Empire did, the weakened nation-states that once made up Europe will be unable to stand on their own. The empire might not be able to govern, but it can kill the habits and structure of state governance. And then Russia will have the opportunity to move west again. It has always been ludicrous to argue that Russia would fear the supposed might of a united EU as if that would be more dangerous to Russian ambitions for conquest than the American-led NATO.

And even if the EU does not collapse or if the Russian empire remains weaker than even a shaky European Union empire--which is what the Euro elites want--that new European empire run from Brussels is a threat to America. So NATO is still our bulwark against a Europe controlled by a hostile autocratic power:

Europe is fully part of the free West because America helped make Europe fully part of the free West. The EU is a force working against that positive American influence to go back to the Europe of autocracies and strongmen whose legitimacy came from blood and soil rather than individual liberty.

It has long been in America's interest to prevent a hostile power from taking Europe and mobilizing its scientific, military, economic, and demographic potential to be used against America. We stopped the Kaiser, we stopped Hitler, and we stopped the USSR.

The EU will so obviously be a threat given time that I am astounded that any American--or any European who values freedom and liberty--can support the EU.

Obama recognized and Trump has emphasized that European NATO states don't pull their weight. As we debate burden-sharing for the defense of Europe, let's not forget that the Europe of sometimes shaky and weak allies is also an objective worth fighting for:

This survey of European power and resentment is a valuable reminder of just how much broad power Europe has despite its long decline in hard power and global influence[.] ...

All this is why it has been American policy for a century to prevent any potentially hostile power from gaining control of that concentration of potential power.

And yes, I include the European Union as a a potential power America should absolutely oppose in controlling geographic Europe.

Defending Europe is not a favor America grants Europe. Although the Europeans obviously benefit from that.  Defending Europe is a core American national interest. And we need to defend free Europe from Europeans themselves.

UPDATE: Trump should not pull American troops from Germany to put them in Poland. Our troops there are not a gift to Germany. They are an insurance policy for America.

And they maintain a power projection platform (see article starting at page 15), among other reasons to keep significant numbers of troops in Germany and Europe.

Can China Afford to Be Patient?

Time is not on China's side in negotiating a new trade deal with America:

China’s best-case scenario for a U.S. trade deal looks worse by the minute. Negotiators on Wednesday evening wrapped up yet another round of negotiations, but made little progress. A tariff ceasefire brokered in June has dragged on, and President Donald Trump no longer seems enthused about a quick deal that could expose him to criticism ahead of a 2020 presidential election. With supply chains already migrating out of the mainland and economic growth slowing, time is not on Beijing’s side.

The tariffs aren't just effective because they were put in place and threatened by Trump.

They are effective because American economic strength at the moment means we can better endure economic consequences of a trade dispute.

In addition, our tariffs apply pressure on existing trends in China that pre-date Trump. China has already experienced declining Chinese economic growth and loss of low-cost manufacturing as China's economy has advanced, raising wages in China beyond the level that allows China to compete in the low-cost manufacturing sector.

China is hurting. But they have a plan:

China is apparently hoping to be patient and take advantage of the current political turmoil in the United States. This has made most of the American media and many American politicians reluctant to criticize China mainly because American mass media is obsessed with overthrowing the current U.S. government.

Can China endure a few more years of this pain on the hope of getting a Democrat in the White House who will cave to Chinese demands to go back to business as usual?

The American edge in this dispute is kind of funny considering the odd belief here that China is naturally gifted at long-range planning.

From the "Boy are Those Russians Bastards" Files

Ukrainians go along with the Russian hybrid war in the Donbas region of Ukraine:

Ukraine's new leader said he called Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to urge him to help halt fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he asked the Russian leader to "influence the other side so that they stop killing our people." Zelenskiy's call came a day after four Ukrainian soldiers were killed by pro-Russia insurgents.

Zelenskiy asked Putin to urge the other side to stop fighting and killing his people?

I see Ukraine's president is going along with the Russian fiction that Russia didn't invade the Donbas.

As I've said, "hybrid warfare" is very simple:

1. Russia invades a country.
2. Russia denies invading a country.
3. And the rest of the world goes along with that fiction.

Sure, Ukraine is weaker than Russia so has some reason to go along with the fiction in public.

What is the excuse for the rest of the world? Or the media that mislabel Russian puppets as "insurgents?"

Russia of course blames Ukraine for fighting around Russian-occupied Donbas.

The Navy Learns from Iran

You may recall the 2016 incident when our post-nuclear deal yet-to-be-friends the Iranians seized two of our small patrol boats in the Persian Gulf (quoting a news article):

Ten sailors aboard two U.S. Navy boats were seized by Iran in the Gulf on Tuesday, and Tehran told the United States the crew members would be promptly returned, U.S. officials said.

"We have received assurances from the Iranians that our sailors are safe and that they will be allowed to continue their journey promptly," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told CNN.

I wondered whether the Navy would correct the problems the investigation identified:

This is a theater where the threat and history should inspire a sense of urgency to prepare for battle at any moment. Yet even here our Navy had a poor culture that led to surrendering their boats to Iranians? How widespread is this type of laxity?

A little Navy history might be in order for our personnel--officer and enlisted.

Those boat crews should have defended their vessels with the full confidence that overwatching American forces would reinforce them rapidly. This incident should have ended with several wrecked Iranian boats and a lesson that you just don't mess with the United States Navy rather than viewing our vessels as hostage bait.

This was shameful. Now we know how shameful. Is the Navy ashamed enough to actually fix this?

Well, the Navy didn't cover it up:

Since it happened back in January 2016 the U.S. Navy has sought to learn from an incident where two American coastal patrol boats and ten sailors manning them were seized by armed Iranian patrol boats in the Persian Gulf. The Americans were accused of being in Iranian territorial waters. The American boats and sailors were released a day later but the U.S. Navy kept quiet about the investigation into how this improbable event actually took place and what they were doing about it. Eventually it became clear that the navy made the most of the opportunity to carry out needed reforms. These were mostly about how its new (since 2006) NECC (Naval Expeditionary Combat Command). [emphasis added]

The post wanders into Marine and NECC history and roles. Which is useful.

So thank you Iran. If the Iranians do push a fight, our forces will be more capable than they might have been otherwise.

This also makes me feel better about the Navy learning from collisions in INDOPACOM that made me worry that the command's ship commanders and crew were not good enough to sail their ships let alone fight them.

What's This "Shared Destiny" Peking is Imposing?

The recent China defense white paper's "unilateral declaration that Asia-Pacific countries are'increasingly aware that they are members of a community with shared destiny' is problematic."

Yes, it is problematic if that's just another way to say Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," as Green notes.

But for now the awareness of a shared destiny increasingly seems to mean Asia-Pacific countries cooperating with America in opposition to China's expansive aims to control the region:

The world has been transfixed by the massive anti-China protests which have shaken Hong Kong in recent months. As dramatic as these are, however, they are simply at the frontier of a regionwide backlash against China's apparent bid for hegemony.

A growing number of Southeast Asian nations are questioning their governments' cozy relations with China. Beijing's time-tested strategy of co-opting elites -- charming or purchasing the loyalty of domestic elites across partner nations through massive economic deals -- seems more fragile. ...

Far from an inevitable march toward Chinese hegemony, what we are instead witnessing is growing reassertion of autonomy and collective dignity among Beijing's near neighbors. The Hong Kong protests are only the most dramatic manifestation of the widening anti-China backlash.

And as I've written, if we want to knit together all those countries that would like to oppose China, we need to maintain sufficient military strength in INDOPACOM.

The shared destiny may be stopping China's ambitions to control the region. Or perhaps more to the point right now, stopping the Chinese Communist Party (tip to Instapundit).

UPDATE: Related thoughts:

China traditionally recognizes only enemies and subordinate foreigners. China does not do allies.

A distant America that does do allies is preferable to a close China that doesn't do allies. As long as those neighbors of China know that resistance to China's "shared destiny" isn't futile, of course.

A Desert Called Peace

Assad remains on the Sarin Throne of Syria. But what did he win other than avoiding hanging from his heels from a lamp post?

The overriding issue of that conflict -- whether Bashar al-Assad's government would continue to rule Syria -- has been settled. It will.

The intensity of the fighting has diminished, and the pace of military operations is lower. The war, however, is far from over.

Moreover, there are a range of secondary issues that were bound up with the civil war, which remain unresolved. The success of the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian backers notwithstanding, the civil war is now largely stalemated, as are many of the secondary issues that were linked to it.

When Assad was the last man standing after the defeat of ISIL's caliphate and the collapse of western rebels, I questioned whether the war was over:

The multi-war may be over in the sense that the rebellion is unlikely to drive Assad from power absent a major collapse of the pro-Assad power structure. Which is conceivable once the prospect of rebel victory recedes.

So how does the war evolve going forward? I don't think the multi-war is over yet.

And I've wondered how the not-over war would evolve since then.

I especially wonder how long the Deconfliction Line (DCL) along the Euphrates River will last.

I also wonder why the world's conscience fixates on Yemen (UPDATE: With an assist by corrupt UN officials working with Houthi rebels to steal aid) where maybe 10% as many people have died (is it all about defending Iran against Trump?) when the real humanitarian crisis remains in Syria:

Close to half a million people in Syria have been displaced from their homes in the past three months, refugees in the making, who would have sought safety with their neighbours across the border if the doors hadn’t been shut in their faces.

Let that number sink in for a moment. Half a million rendered homeless, running for their lives. They fled rebel-held areas in the provinces of Idlib and Hama between April and July, trying to escape death at the hands of militias loyal to Bashar Al Assad or Russian fighter jets. ...

It is necessary to take stock of the carnage up until now, to illustrate what we have grown accustomed to – the level of violence that we now find acceptable.

Our enemies always get a pass on what they do to win--or to just sit on the throne a little longer.

UPDATE: Syria's slow offensive in Idlib continues:

Syrian government forces captured two northwestern villages in an intensified offensive on the last rebel-held part of the country, inching closer to the town of Kfar Zeita which has been held by insurgents since 2012, opposition activists and state media reported Wednesday.

Syria has few troops for attacking, and fears both casualties and the Turks. So the offensive is slow, relying on firepower.

We've Reached the End of the Line

Firing short-range missiles and rockets is fairly meaningless in the nuclear threat context, but it does seem to show that talks with North Korea are going nowhere. Where do we go from here?

I've been skeptical of Trump's outreach to Kim Jong Un. I do think North Korea wants nukes and is unlikely to disarm:

Kim Jong Un has once again conducted a test launch, this time of the 300mm multiple rocket launcher (MRL) system, just six days after testing the KN-23 missile and two months after North Korea’s initial violations, on May 4 and May 9, of the testing moratorium that began in November 2017 after Pyongyang’s last intercontinental ballistic missile test. Testing the 300mm MRL and the KN-23 enhances Pyongyang’s ability to strike at key air bases in the Republic of Korea (ROK), but the tests’ strategic significance lies in their expression of Kim’s confidence that the U.S. and ROK are unwilling to hold him accountable because their desire for negotiations far exceeds his own.

In addition to worrying that North Korea is buying time to go nuclear, I worry that talks buy time for North Korea to proliferate their nuclear assets. Eventually we get to a point where striking North Korea is too risky because we become less sure we can get everything in a time frame short enough to reduce the threat of escalation to general war.

But I will say I've never read a clear indication of what weapons North Korea has. I keep reading things that imply scores of nuclear weapons, but I suspect facts are being fudged to make the potential for scores of weapons into actual weapons.

So diplomacy is failing. Although I don't rule out the possibility that it could work out.

And I do admit that the strenuous high profile presidential diplomatic effort checks the box on the "last option" list prior to hammering North Korea if necessary.

Unless the real objective of the president's diplomatic activity and high profile praise for Kim's diplomacy is just a higher level of engagement to soothe higher levels of sanctions in what is essentially a policy of talk, talk, die, die:

Personally, I simply want the talks to drag on while North Korea implodes. Every month the talks go on, the more North Korea's military machine deteriorates. Each month, North Koreans head toward the point when fear is outweighed by desperation.

Yet the talks keep the North Koreans hoping for a respite to their woes if we hand them the big check again. This hope keeps them from launching a desperate war while they can do some damage and hopefully get a frightenend West to agree to shovel money at them. The West has capitulated before and Pyongyang expects us to break again.

So keep talking and let North Korea walk if they get upset about us bringing up other issues. Every month they have a weaker option of going to war. And if they go to war, all bets are off on regime change. Nobody's stopping at the DMZ this time if the North launches a war.

We've been kicking the figurative North Korea nuclear can down the peninsula for a long time. We seem like we've run out of peninsula.

Under-manned and Under-maintained

Nearly thirty years of a naval peace dividend, with the only threats being weak foes with targets ashore, the Navy finds itself with problems getting ships to sea in working order to fight for control of the seas:

The Navy is both under-manned and its hulls under-maintained, with close to 70 percent of ships unable to get through maintenance availabilities on time, [head of the Senate Armed Service Committee Senator Jim] Inhofe said, noting there’s $1.8 billion in outstanding maintenance needs still unfunded. “Overall,” the senator added, “it seems to me that the Navy is having trouble maintaining today’s fleet of 291 ships, and the challenges will only grow as the fleet surpasses 300 ships in 2020 and 310 ships in 2022, on the way to 355 ships in the 2030s.” ...

Inhofe noted that “there are problems with the Ford beyond the elevators, and those problems have to do with the arresting gear, catapult and the radar.” He asked Gilday to provide the committee with regular updates on the carrier’s progress.

In 1991 the Soviet navy dropped off the radar as a threat and the Chinese navy was not even close to being a threat.

And in 2001 America began more than a decade of major land combat operations with the Navy in a supporting role only with no threats to command of the sea threatening that support.

Now the Russians and Chinese are increasingly hostile.

Luckily the Russian navy is essentially up on cinder blocks in the driveway rusting away. And China's rapidly built navy is no doubt short of experienced crews and commanders manning their shiny new ships.

But those shortcomings of foes are just a reason not to panic in the short run. In an era of great power competition, the Navy doesn't seem ready to compete with a great power's navy.

The Army Navy Lives!

It is a little-known fact that the United States Army has ships. The Army will keep them after all. Which keeps future options in AFRICOM open.

This is a relief:

The U.S. Army, at least for the immediate future, has put plans on hold to gut its obscure and underappreciated fleets of amphibious ships, landing craft, tugs, and other maritime assets. The General Services Administration, or GSA, which had previously announced it would be auctioning off dozens of these vessels over the next year and a half, has pulled down all of the existing listings offline.

The Army navy will never be the People's Liberation Army Navy, but keeping that skill set does keep the option open to create The AFRICOM Queen modularized auxiliary cruiser as a power projection platform in a theater that doesn't get the assets that EUCOM, CENTCOM, and INDOPACOM get.

See my Military Review article on that concept here.

Army mariners would be needed to crew such a power projection platform. Without ships, there would be no reason to keep the mariners.

So Who Split the Largest Piece of Chinese Territory?

China in its new national defense white paper says that it "will never allow anyone, any organization, and any political party at any time in any form to split any piece of Chinese territory".

That is specifically intended for Taiwan and Hong Kong, but it seems like that its biggest application is against Russia.

"Anyone" might include China's lapdog Russia (which Russia conceals by being such hostile jerks to the West), wouldn't it? That's a large piece of territory that Russia split from China in the 19th century, no?

A China reeling from internal and external pressure might want a short and glorious war to demonstrate their prowess; and signal their rise to the world stage as a significant actor.

And Russia might fit the bill for that, even if China doesn't try to reclaim their territory by force and only signals their determination to get it back eventually.

Right now Russia and China are allies--or at least friendly. But at what point does a weakening Russia become more of a liability than an ally for China? Might China figure that they don't want their own Italy to pull a 1943 defection from the Axis to the Allies on Russia's terms at a time that does maximum damage to China?

Weekend Data Dump

As I've said, we should absolutely be able to regulate immigration in order to benefit our country. That seems like a no-brainer as a basic position, with debates over how many our economy (and not our political goals) needs and how many our society can absorb the only questions in dispute. For those who hate any limits on immigration, a lower American birth rate likely means that there will eventually be a need for more immigration.

Killing jihadis and trying to make sure only actual soldiers who kill jihadis are paid: Somalia version.

Baltimore has the raw material to score big with this development.

So why is AOC such a climate science denier? Twelve years, indeed. Eighteen months or it is all over, people!!! Don't worry--or curl up in a fetal position--we've missed "deadlines" before.

Let's set aside the issue of it being wrong for Hollywood to self-censor to appease a communist dictatorship. It is wrong and it is a longstanding problem. But consider that Hollywood has no problem alienating the majority of Americans who are conservative with repeated box office bombs that attack conservatives. Why won't Hollywood challenge actual thug rulers who oppress their own people?

Russia uses the Russian Orthodox Church as a tool of government legitimacy and for expansion where there are Orthodox faithful. Ukraine, as I noted at the time, struck a blow at Russia by separating their own church from Russian domination. Explain to me again how brilliant the "frozen" conflict in Russian-occupied Donbas is.

One of the problems of an all-powerful federal government is that too many governors and mayors believe they are too important to improve mere local services. Instead of addressing crime or roads or garbage collection, these officials see their post as a stepping stone to national office--or at least a national stage where Twitter likes from distant allies are more important than local votes. If the federal government was cut back in scope, maybe local mayors would take pride in controlling rats.

Good advice and cautions from the left that expired the moment Trump won.

They think they made this choice to save the planet. But they are really saving the gene pool.

This is basically the Heavyweight Victimhood Championship. Tip to Instapundit. 

The achievement is in getting leftists to come to Venezuela and--contrary to their lying eyes--believe that socialism has triumphed in making people's lives better.

This author draws lessons from the World War II Guadalcanal campaign. Yes, tactical defense on strategic offense is nice work when you can get it. I took my own stab at lessons in this AUSA Land Warfare Paper.

False wokeness is the last refuge of a racist scoundrel. Seriously, explain to me why dividing up people by races and other categories in their dorm, theme house, caucus, safe space, or graduation ceremony isn't something that segregationists, bigots, and even slave holders would celebrate? Smells like woke spirit to me.

American defense spending is not a crushing burden on America's economy. The idea that defense spending accounts for 60% of our budget as the dishonest Jessica Mathews (her name rang alarm bells for her past despite not hearing of her for quite a while) asserts is wrong. It requires you to neglect the massive entitlement portion of our budget. With that massive category, defense spending is 15% of our budget. And as I've written, our budget needs to train, pay, and equip our troops and then get them to the fight and sustain them. And you have to consider that we spend money to lower the price in blood. And that price in blood includes innocents caught in the middle as the war rages. Is that a bad bargain? And apparently Fareed Zakaria praised the essay. But Zakaria couldn't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal, if you ask me on most days.

If Democrats try to promote this insane stupidity from campuses to government, they will be easily defeated in 2020.

One problem the Democrats will have in 2020 is that despite their frantic turn-it-to-11 panic about Trump, voters can see that he didn't establish a dictatorship. All the fears of an unknown were way overblown as I said at the time--despite my long history of not liking Trump at all--but the worries at least did have a foundation of uncertainty in 2016. Now? Other than the fanatics left behind in their island caves Twitter accounts to fight the war, who believes the Trumptatorship is one election away? And the fact that Trump--by his governing record--isn't as crazy as was feared by so many in 2016--makes the fact that Democrats can't at least pretend to be less crazy than Trump pretty damning.

Iraq and Iran are building up to a showdown over Iran's PMF militias. And as that struggle goes on at a low level, ISIL rebuilds with the lack of focus on them by the Iraqi government and the Iranian PMF. But at least other Arab governments--despite the Shia-Sunni divide--are finally reaching out to Shia Iraq to resist Shia but Persian Iran.

Obstruction of justice.

Corruption valued more than victory. If the locals weren't prone to letting jihadis set up shop, I'd be happy to let them enjoy their societal dysfunction for another century or so until they get tired of it.

That's not funny, you haters! Tip to Instapundit.

False civil rights are the last refuge of vote-stealing scoundrels. Tip to Instapundit.

The fact that most civilians die because of allied firepower in Afghanistan does not mean the allies are to blame for most civilian casualties. If civilians die from allied firepower because insurgents and terrorists hide among civilians, the responsibility for those deaths falls on the insurgents and terrorists who put civilians at risk.

Deepfake videos put a premium on the public's trust of our news media to sift the fake from the real just as the media is throwing their trustworthiness on huge bonfires of deep partisanship. Expect our enemies to use this a lot to undermine America by driving more of us to prefer the deepfakes that reinforce our existing biases rather than try to figure out what is real or fake.

If I understand the new rules, if a foreign hostile power works to undermine an American presidential candidate, all Americans must rally around that targeted candidate.

You'd think that if Germany sees the need to be able to nuke somebody that Germany would support building armed forces capable of defeating such a nuke-worthy foe without needing to use nuclear weapons. But that's not how a disarmed Germany rolls. So this German decision to stay out of the Persian Gulf was not hard to predict.

The dark curtain of Islamophobia is always descending on America, if you listen to the left. But it only seems to land overseas. Like in China, for example. Well, reasonably enlightened rulers can do no wrong, right? Alert Tom Friedman.

The X-37. Tip to Instapundit. I've been waiting for something to come out of this space plane program for a long time.

Will the "graduates" of this idiotic social justice high school be able to sue the University of Michigan and the Detroit Public School system for wrecking their lives? Tell me again how bad public school academies (charter schools) are. Tip to Instapundit.

Taiwan fired a lot of missiles in military exercises. Well, all the cool kids fire missiles to get concessions.

Putin calls for the army to fight Siberian forest fires. Which means half the trees will be killed and another 20% will be driven into exile in China. But the remaining 30% will be too shaken and demoralized to burn for a generation.

So Bernie Sanders says health care shouldn't be a business? Check out what happened to Venezuela's oil industry when the inept socialist thug rulers stopped treating that like a business. Socialists can eff up a wet dream.

Just as I bitterly complain about the budget deficits under Trump, the Democratic candidates say "Hold my beer."

If Trump is recklessly risking war why was there so little time devoted to the actual issues--just a bit of time in the second debate. I'm not surprised that Democrats are against the Afghanistan War. What is surprising is that they agree with Trump. I don't want Afghanistan to be a threat to America again (remember 9/11?). Explain to me how a withdrawal achieves that? And what about Russia? Where were the Democratic plans to confront Russia? It is hard not to see the two Democratic debates as anything other than continued benefits from Russia's 2016 effort to sow chaos and divisions inside America. Politics don't have to be another form of civil war.

Yes, our diplomats should be working hard to separate South Korea and Japan, and get them to work against common threats instead of against each other.

China has doubled their nuclear arsenal in the last decade and is expected to double it in the next decade. Although secrecy means the level is actually rather unclear. So I don't know how those "doubling" conclusions were reached.

The United States has paid to upgrade two of Ukraine's ports to handle American and NATO warships. Congratulations to Putin for drawing NATO into the Black Sea!

I'm glad Pompeo stated that there is no plan to pull American troops out of Afghanistan (and allied troops would beat us out the door) before the next election. Withdrew when we can. Stay until we can. If we leave too soon, the situation could get too bad for local allies to handle with our minimal support.

The formal end of the INF treaty will not lead to a Russian-American nuclear arms race, despite what Russia claims. Russia can't afford to buy pistols let alone a lot more short-range nuclear missiles. This fear also ignores that the real issue in America getting out of the INF treaty is that we want to match China's theater missiles which are not limited by a treaty between America and Russia. A treaty Russia wasn't abiding by anyway. Anyway, if you want to worry about a nuclear arms race, look to China and not Russia. I think we simply want a treaty that covers China, too.

I recently found an interesting fact in Why the Allies Won (page 321 in case I ever need that) that I had desperately tried to find in college: America devoted 85% of its World War II war effort to defeat Germany in Europe and 15% to defeating Japan. I'd already read that Japan had 1/10 to 1/8 of America's GDP at the start of the war. And Japan devoted a lot of resources to the Asian continent (perhaps half, based on some actual thinking that I won't go into), that small American effort still gave America probably a 2.5:1 edge in resources over Japan in the Pacific.

Only if we have orbiting lasers that can flash carve fire breaks around the forest fires. But it was a nice offer.

Spawn of Satan killed.

The Congo quagmire. I was never hopeful that a single UN combat brigade that was allowed to fight would be more noticeable than spitting in the ocean.

China has replaced the USSR as a major gatherer of naval electronic surveillance at sea. Australia is not amused.

I don't know how this college financial aid scam can work given that when I got independent student status in college, I actually was and had to prove it with bills and paychecks--a full year of it. Does the school not dare check any more? Tip to Instapundit.

Huh.

What is wrong with these people? Tip to Instapundit.

The Asian century really didn't get going. I've long said don't count America out yet. The USSR, Europe, Japan, and then China were all supposed to pass us by. I was no more convinced China would do the job than any of the others.

No, it is not a good idea to go back to declarations of war. Yes, the use of force is a complicated thing under American law. But a declaration of war triggers all kinds of presidential powers that we might not want to confer short of all-out great power war with our survival on the line.

This author, writing about whether we need a grand strategy (and I think he may be right about not needing one), pops off with this gem of revisionist nonsense: " The Bush administration manufactured Iraqi links to terrorism and weapons of mass destruction to justify an unnecessary war." Manufactured? That is bull. Saddam had ties to terrorists and supported terrorism and had the ability to resume production of WMD relatively quickly given past extensive production and use of chemical weapons and missiles. Further, Saddam was a conventional threat to the region and to his own people. How someone can write something like that is beyond me. He lost a lot of credibility with me with one sentence. Maybe we desperately do need a grand strategy.

Lasers that project words in perhaps five years? I thought we already had stuff like that, although not based on lasers. I definitely recall reading about our Navy using them in the Gulf region and freaking out Iranian Revolutionary Guard sailors because it sounded to them like there were voices inside their head. Tip to Instapundit.

Strategypage addresses the end of the INF treaty and more.

Al Qaeda still operates in Yemen. Defeating Iran's effort to keep the fighting going in Yemen would allow more focused efforts to defeat those jihadis.

Heh.

The Storm Area 51 effort has not considered the logistics of that plan.

The Air Force is practicing naval missions in cooperation with the Navy in the Persian Gulf. I have long wondered why land-based Navy planes can't substitute for carriers there (and elsewhere). And getting the Air Force involved in sea control should be a no-brainer.

Australia's Talisman Sabre exercise added Japanese amphibious troops to the tool bag of American and Australian troops who could capture islands in the South China Sea.

An escort mission in the Persian Gulf is envisioned as almost entirely an allied endeavor. As I said, allies and local friends have the incentive and assets to escort tankers as long as the American hammer is in the Arabian Sea and on land.

Could AFRICOM help African nations prevent over-fishing in African waters? If so, The Fisheries Queen modularized auxiliary cruiser offshore patrol ship could help.

In the Democratic debates in July Bernie Sanders got (even more?) riled up over attacks on his government-run health care plan, and rejected a claim he didn't really understand it himself. He famously objected “I wrote the damn bill.” But the senator doth protest too much. Bernie did not in fact write the bill. He sponsored it. He told the people who wrote it what he wants in the bill in general terms. But I assure you a team of lawyers working for Congress, the Democratic party, and friendly lobbyists actually wrote the bill. The United States Code is far too large and complicated for any legislator to actually sit up late at night with candle light and write an actual bill.

Women need to shut up and enjoy the rules the left wrote for you--because the left doesn't need women who don't have women voices. And the left has decided what a woman's voice is. Tip to Instapundit.

We see our own problems in the West all too clearly; but our autocratic foes like China and Russia (and let's toss in North Korea, Iran, and Turkey, too)  have problems, too.

China faces increased opposition--both externally and even internally--across a wide spectrum of Chinese actions because China basically only has rogue states as allies. Which helps America.

Biden saw a lot of people thrown under the bus by Obama during 8 years in the White House, but I guess Biden never thought he'd be under-bussed, too.

Why is China happy to kill Americans with fentanyl despite promises to shut down the exports?

Oh FFS! Someone actually claimed white robots in movies and in the real world are racist? Tell me that you don't firmly know that if real and fictional robots were mostly black that the exact same authors would claim that it is "problematic" that subservient robots designed to do dangerous or menial tasks are darker. And I'm sure that someone will be triggered by the fact that I used an uncapitalized "black" when describing the color of inanimate objects.

Is this killer a white supremacist or Islamist fanboy?

A Russian recon plane entered our Air Defense Identification Zone near Alaska. Remember that the ADIZ is not the same as our territorial air space. It is simply a zone that we established to identify potential threats coming toward American territory. And we did not intercept it and give the plane a chance to suck up all the data that our planes emit (or don't emit!).

The Air Force remains reluctant to support forces on the ground. Which is why I wanted the Air Force to aim high and become the Space Force, while letting the Army have the funding and responsibility for ground support (bombs and recon). Eventually I settled on renaming that refocused Air Force the Aerospace Force. I got my name. But Space Force as it has been designed kind of screws up my idea. Now there are two organizations high up--one in the "blue" skies and one in the black "skies" of space--with no interest in the "brown" skies close to the ground troops. I used that formulation of the types of skies in this Army magazine article on Army air defense drones.

Oh, now I get it. Iran has seized a third tanker for smuggling. This had confused me. Why would Iran of all countries crack down on smuggling? But now I get it. The ships were smuggling refined fuel--not oil--out of Iran. Iran subsidizes the fuel which means smugglers can buy it cheap inside Iran and sell it at a profit abroad at world prices. Which is kind of funny. For decades Iranians have smuggled banned items into Iran. And now that skill set is being used against Iran.

It's easy to forget, but even the now-hated populism was okay when doused in the soothing balms of Hope and Change. I have never been a populist. Rule of law is my thing. Thanks Obama! Tip to Instapundit.

Mass murderers should be quickly executed and have their bodies dumped at sea. Call it the Osama bin Laden option.

The fact that Democratic candidates for the presidency all want massive power for the presidency would seem to indicate that they don't actually believe Trump has established a dictatorship. But I will caution everyone, whether you support or hate Trump: The power to give you everything you want is also the power to take away everything you have. That's not a new observation by me, of course.

I'm open to suggestions for new gun laws that could prevent haters from killing people in large numbers. I doubt that any gun law can prevent hateful scum from finding other ways to kill if any particular means are banned. But by all means make your case. It is even conceivable that a pointless bill should be passed if it gives the illusion of safety. TSA is a case in point. All I know is that nobody will suggest banning or restricting cars despite the Texas killer driving 10 hours to the murder site in El Paso.

In related news, this man is a hero and I commend him. But I do worry that police responding to an active shooter killing spree will mistake a man with a gun trying to protect people for the actual shooter and kill the good guy with a gun. I don't know how you fix that either.Tip to Instapundit.

Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen have agreed to let humanitarian aid through without stealing it. Wait, didn't the rebels agree to allow aid back at the end of last year? Yeah, don't tell me about how the Saudis are at fault for the humanitarian crisis.

Michael Yon is in Hong Kong reporting on events. I wish the Hong Kongers well in their quest for freedom. But I have a bad feeling about this and suspect the only way it works out for Hong Kong is if the mainland has a revolution for freedom.

It's easy not to notice another pile of anti-American BS coming out of our colleges, but the Chinese Confucius Institutes are an arm of Chinese espionage and propaganda and I'm shocked they are allowed. You'd know of these things if you followed The Dignified Rant.

I'm With Military Intelligence on This Dispute

Jihadis want to kill us. Period. All else should follow logically from that baseline fact rather than thinking we can figure out the dividing line between jihadis who will kill us and jihadis who will just kill their local neighbors.

What fresh Hell is this?

American military commanders in Afghanistan have described the Islamic State affiliate there as a growing problem that is capable of inspiring and directing attacks in Western countries, including the United States.

But intelligence officials in Washington disagree, arguing the group is mostly incapable of exporting terrorism worldwide. The officials believe that the Islamic State in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State Khorasan, remains a regional problem and is more of a threat to the Taliban than to the West. [emphasis added]

So, if we leave Afghanistan ISIL won't grow in strength and eventually strike us with their new sanctuary?

As I understand it, the "peace" process is aimed at peeling the Taliban away from jihadis by getting the Taliban to stiff-arm the foreign jihadis. And then we can go home:

“U.S. troops in Afghanistan have prevented another catastrophic attack on our homeland for 18 years,” [retired Army] General Keane said in an interview. “Expecting the Taliban to provide that guarantee in the future by withdrawing all U.S. troops makes no sense.”

And nothing will go wrong in that oddly simple formula that our State Department is pushing?

Have we forgotten how the Taliban government of Afghanistan took our money in the late 1990s and yet still hosted al Qaeda which attacked us on September 11, 2001?

It is insane to believe that we can take the promise of the Taliban to essentially fight our war on jihadi terrorists for us as the price of getting American forces out of Afghanistan.

Dragging in the Stupidity

So Germany's refusal and France's hesitation to help with a potential Iranian threat to energy shipping in the Persian Gulf are the result of America's post-9/11 wars? Excuse me for using a technical term, but that argument is "stupid."

European allies are so far hesitant to help America in the Gulf because they don't want to get dragged into another misadventure? Say what?

Given Trump’s volatile temper and his hawkish advisers, sending warships to the Gulf carries the risk of getting embroiled in yet another U.S. war in the Middle East. ...

There’s little doubt that the U.S. is capable of securing the Strait of Hormuz without any help at all from Europe. But its difficulty in getting such help shows the hollowness at the heart of the transatlantic alliance. Years of U.S. foreign policy misadventures have made key NATO allies too cautious to get involved even when the U.S. isn’t proposing an all-out war on some distant country but merely an operation to secure a major shipping route from an adversary that is unlikely to take on a broad Western coalition.

The author mentions Iraq and Libya as a reason for those two countries not wanting to help with escort missions in the Persian Gulf. I guess Afghanistan is still the "good war" (that NATO officially backed under the collective defense provisions) for the author. That's amazing enough.

But the 2003 Iraq War was a continuation of the UN-sanctioned 1991 Persian Gulf War that was only suspended by a ceasefire that Saddam did not comply with by clearly demonstrating he had ended his WMD programs.

Further, we dragged in nobody. Some allies helped in Iraq. Some even fought at our side. And I thank them for that. Neither Germany nor France was dragged into that war against their will. I know that because neither fought there.

And the Iraq War 2.0 was begun by Obama, retroactively validating the reasons for going after Saddam by refusing to let what we'd achieved be undone by ISIL and Iran.

And the Libya War was under Obama as well, and was pushed by the French and Europeans with America being dragged in to support our unprepared allies when the war was not the short and glorious effort the Europeans thought it would be.

The author even undermines his case by noting that Germany--which is half of his case--gets its energy from Russia and not the Persian Gulf.

I'd also note that Germany has offered to send a warship to the Pacific to challenge Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. Is Germany is worried America will drag them into war with Iran but not with China? Okay.

Remember too that Germany's navy is in sad shape. They may not be able to sustain an escort effort far from home. So when a German, perhaps reflecting the government's position, says Europe should operate in the Gulf apart from America, what is clearly meant is Europe except Germany.

As for France? Well, France has a history of being ... difficult ... with America. Being known as having independence of action is a high priority for France's foreign policy. And the author even notes that, which undermines his case.

And in 2013 it was France that leaned forward on the issue of striking Assad for using chemical weapons.

Face it, the European hesitation is a trend that was predictable ever since NATO won the Cold War. I recall telling my students in 1990 and 1991 when I taught an introductory American history course that Europe and America would pull apart. This was in the context of the covering the growing tension between the American colonies and Britain between the French and Indian War and the Revolution, as Americans tired of paying for defense after Britain ended the French threat to the colonies.

To be fair to the Europeans, Iran has not escalated since their small attacks in the Gulf. So it isn't clear whether Iran is serious about threatening oil shipping or whether Iran is engaged in Tanker War 2.0 Theater in order to scare the Europeans into helping Iran cope with American pressure.

Also, the Persian Gulf is an out-of-area mission that is not at the heart of NATO reason for existing--protecting Europe from invasion. What NATO does is establish working relationships and common standards that allow American and European military forces to work together more effectively either in Europe or in other parts of the world if interests coincide. Which could be out of Europe if allies are willing.

If Iran does start seriously hitting shipping, American efforts now to get allied help will pay off as planning will already have been done to plug allied ships into the effort.

And I should note that our Persian Gulf allies are better prepared to confront Iran than they were in the 1980s; and they are more willing to confront Iran.

NATO's cohesion is weaker (or hollow, in the author's term) because of reduced threats to NATO states that existed from 1989 to 2014. Don't drag stupidity into the alliance issues we have today.

From the Sea Through Opposition

The Marine Corps is embracing a role in defeating hostile anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities by walking away from large-scale amphibious warfare.

This seems like a recognition of reality, especially in the Pacific where China's navy and land-based air and missile forces seek to keep enemy fleets away from their shores:

The U.S. Marine Corps wants to completely rewrite the playbook when it comes to amphibious warfare. It seeks to counter the growing A2/AD threat by proliferating platforms and increasing reliance on long-range fires and unmanned systems to penetrate enemy defenses. Marine landing forces will employ a combination of extremely sophisticated air capabilities, centered on the F-35B and MV-22 and fast-moving ground units equipped with new platforms, like the Amphibious Combat Vehicle, to conduct long-range, mobile operations. As General Berger described his vision: “We need a force capable of denying freedom of naval maneuver to deter our adversaries; or, as necessary, a Corps capable of exploiting, penetrating, and degrading advanced adversary defenses in all domains in support of Naval and Joint Force operations.”

Dispersal is a good thing in that environment. And I wrote about dispersing Marine forces in Proceedings (membership required).

Yet the author of that first article has a point:

But to dismiss the utility of major landing operations is to ignore both the realities of operations in the Indo-Pacific region and the history of the last two centuries. Simply put, in the event of a major conflict in this region, the Navy and Marine Corps will inevitably be required to seize, control, and operate from land locations.

Assuming that the dispersed Marines succeed in helping the Navy (and Air Force and even the Army is in the game) defeat the A2/AD threat, at that point multi-brigade operations against the shore become possible. And perhaps necessary. I discussed major land operation options in INDOPACOM in Military Review.

The problem is that the basic mission of the Marines is to go ashore in force to spearhead land operations. For that mass and large amphibious ships are necessary.

But until control of the seas is achieved in the face of enemy A2/AD capabilities--or against their efforts to control the seas--you can't risk mass close to the shores. Dispersed Marines that can operate in the shadow of those capabilities in order to help gain that sea control are needed.

How do the Marines and Navy balance that? I wrote an article last year addressing that subject that was shot down. I should revisit it.

Will Blood Flow into the South China Sea?

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees the Hong Kong protests as a threat to their monopoly of power and blame America for the unrest. Uh oh.

Are Chinese forces massing across from Hong Kong?

Weeks of unrest in the Chinese territory have begun to overwhelm Hong Kong’s police, who have found themselves in violent clashes with protesters. China warned Monday that the civil disorder had gone “far beyond” peaceful protest after police deployed tear gas over the weekend.

The nature of the Chinese buildup wasn’t clear; the official said that units of the Chinese military or armed police had gathered at the border with Hong Kong. The official briefed reporters on a range of issues on condition he not be identified.

Maybe or maybe not. There are already 6,000 ground forces in Hong Kong with more around China.

After eight weeks of protests, how far along is the CCP decision-making process to go postal on the protesters:

Now China is facing a similar dilemma to 1989: whether to use the military to crack down on the increasingly ferocious street demonstrations in the former British colony. If Beijing goes down that route it risks international opprobium and the end of the carefully spun illusion that President Xi Jinping is a voice of reason in an emotionally over-charged world. But the alternative, to wait out the crisis and let the overwhelmed local police handle the protest movement, carries its own dangers. The authority of the Hong Kong government is melting by the day and Xi wants to sedate its inhabitants at the latest by October when the country celebrates with great fanfare the 70th anniversary of Chinese communist rule.

In Tiananmen Square it took 55 days before factions in the ruling communist party could agree on the use of soldiers against citizens. The prime minister Li Peng declared martial law on May 20 1989; two weeks later paratroopers, commandos and tanks were sent on a killing mission.

So the CCP can already see that the local police aren't handling the problem for Peking.

And the Chinese released a video of "anti-riot" training. I had anti-riot training. Let me just say that the Chinese highlight a lot more firepower than I was ever trained to use.

Meanwhile, despite the problems in Hong Kong, Peking has time to address the other democratic troublemakers in Taiwan:

China stepped up pressure on Taiwan on Wednesday as it announced the suspension of individual travel permits to the self-ruled democratic island "due to current cross-strait relations".

Relations between Communist-ruled Beijing and Taipei have plummeted since President Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016 because her party refuses to recognise the idea that Taiwan is part of "one China".

Truly, Peking wishes they could just send every Hong Kong and Taiwan resident to reeducation prisons the way China can do to Uighurs:

Officials from China’s northwestern Xinjiang region said on Tuesday that most of the people detained in the area’s contentious re-education centres have been moved out of the facilities and have signed "work contracts" with local companies.

However, those assertions were challenged by accounts from Uighurs and Kazakhs who say their relatives remain missing.

The United States, human rights groups and independent analysts estimate that about 1 million Muslims have been arbitrarily detained in Xinjiang’s heavily guarded internment camps, which the Chinese government calls vocational training centres.

Taiwan and Hong Kong clearly have reason to work together to defend freedom.

Taiwan could take the lead on this:

Long ago I concluded that a League of Democracies as an alternative to the autocrat-ridden United Nations is not the solution to our problems in that body.

But why couldn't Taiwan host a League of Democracies on Taiwan to discuss the mechanics of democracy promotion and democracy practice?

It could be composed of nations, provinces/states, and cities that want to discuss these issues.

As a body discussing the concept of democracy in both state and sub-state actors, it would not run afoul of Chinese red lines about independence. China has offered one state with two systems to Hong Kong--although it really doesn't--and to Taiwan to ease resistance to Peking absorbing Taiwan. How could China oppose democracy as a concept apart from independence when it formally agrees?

Yet it would be a powerful symbol of resistance to Chinese efforts to deny Taiwan democracy.

And this raises the stakes although it puts Hong Kong firmly on the freedom side:

Over the past two weekends, as crowds of pro-democracy protesters massed in Hong Kong’s Sheung Wan district, they adopted a slogan that had not been heard in the previous weeks of protest. Cries of “Go Hong Kongers!” “No extradition to China!” and “Withdraw the bill!” have been common, referencing the proposed extradition law that ignited the movement.

But recently, with the roar of their voices amplified and echoing in the cavern created by the surrounding buildings and overhead freeway bridges, the crowd has been chanting: “Reclaim Hong Kong! Revolution of our time!” That’s a frightening slogan for the city’s establishment, one that points to just how deeply Hong Kongers have turned against Beijing and one that may prompt a dangerous response.

Wow.

If America is really to blame for Hong Kong protests in defense of freedom in the eyes of the CCP, mere local police are insufficient. The justification for sending in troops writes itself--if thirty years of thinking about how a surveillance state can kill the democracy baby in the cradle isn't working--to crush the protesters with a spasm of violence.

If we are going to be blamed for unrest even though we are simply the most powerful democracy that opposes tyranny and so set an example in contrast to the bloody thugs in Peking, we should probably do something to help Hong Kong and Taiwan win the tyranny-democracy battle.

After all, China is waging that battle here already.

UPDATE: So China is unlikely to send in the army despite the threat to the Chinese Communist Party?

But sicking the military on citizens could remind mainland China, and the world, that the party's military, which is the biggest in the world, pledges allegiance only to the party, and not to the people of China.

I hate to spoil the comfort zone, but I think that reminding the people on the mainland that the CCP has all the guns on this side is a feature and not a bug.

And for the mission of slaughtering civilians the People's Armed Police will be indistinguishable from the People's Liberation Army Army.

UPDATE: Is this premature?

Some of the protest messages were impossible to miss. In Wanchai’s Golden Bauhinia Square, a magnet for tourists from other parts of China, kids spray-painted a statue with provocative statements such as “The Heavens will destroy the Communist Party” and “Liberate Hong Kong.”

In Hong Kong, revolution is in the air. What started out as an unexpectedly large demonstration in late April against a piece of legislation—an extradition bill—has become a call for democracy in the territory as well as independence from China and the end of communism on Chinese soil.

Revolution in China might be the best route to save freedom in Hong Kong (and Taiwan for that matter), as I have suggested.

But even if the mainland isn't ready for revolution, CCP fear that the mainland could be ready for revolution may spark a violent suppression of the Hong Kong protests.

On the other hand, taking a hopeless stand may be the only way to keep the idea of freedom alive in Hong Kong even as Peking tightens the screws to get "one country, one system--ours."

One professor says the disintegration of China is underway.

I don't know if that is true right now. But I have long wondered about that outcome.

Michael Yon is on the ground there, FYI.

Every Man a Sniper

Strategypage writes about the latest Russian sniper rifle and other weapons, and notes the expanding sniper capabilities in modern armies:

Modern armies are making greater use of snipers. Not just because snipers are among the deadliest troops on the battlefield, but because better technology is making it easier to get long range hits consistently. There are even computerized sniper sights that can turn just about anyone into a sniper, at least for shots under a thousand meters.

If American infantry is to retain its battlefield dominance anchored on superior marksmanship which was demonstrated over the last couple decades, training will need to change to adapt to this trend, as I wrote on the USNI Blog last year.

The Fuck-Up Fairy Now Lives in Russia

So how's it going in Russian-occupied Crimea, the crown jewel in Putin's effort to restore the territory and glory of Holy Mother Russia?

Apparently the city of Sevastopol is pro-Russian but not willing to allow Putin to put his arm up their nether region to move their lips:

The confrontation now brewing between Moscow and Sevastopol is one that some Moscow-based experts are declaring will have tremendous implications for the whole of Russia. The city is gearing up for two elections – first for the city council in September this year and the governor election in September 2020. According to local experts, Moscow’s strategy is to prevent the emergence of a majority critical of it in the local parliament, and to still try to apply its usual methods to “freedom-loving Sevastopol.” ...

In Sevastopol, Moscow faces an existential dilemma. It has found that it cannot merely impose the same sort of repressive federal regime that exists in Russia. And the philosophy of Chaly’s followers in Sevastopol, and of his supporters in Russia, is not the usual sort of basis for challenge that the Kremlin has dealt with in the past. They call themselves patriots; criticise the liberal opposition and accuse them of being agents of the West; and they are both anti-establishment and anti-corruption. For them, it is undeniable that Crimea is a part of Russia, and they demand a genuine share of power in the region – and in Russia too.

That. is. hilarious! I think I peed myself laughing so hard.

So Putin managed with his conquest and annexation of Crimea in 2014 to push Ukraine more anti-Russian by taking a lot of pro-Russian people out of Ukraine; and managed to import more dissidents against Putin's autocratic rule.

Maybe more people in Crimea will understand that you can be ruled by Russia or you can be free to run your own lives. And Russia is confident that the choice is the former.

Bravo, Mr. Putin. Seriously, quite impressive. Rip that shirt off and ride the tiger! You da man!

Add these results to the already impressive result of the war on Ukraine of dragging NATO into the Black Sea.

I don't want to hear another Goddamn word about how brilliantly Putin is playing Russia's poor hand.

And I don't know whether the Western notion that "frozen" conflicts are brilliant or that so-called "hybrid war" is brilliant is more annoyingly wrong.

Putin should worry that Russians will finally realize how badly he has effed up royally.

UPDATE: Some people are noticing:

In Moscow large protest demonstrations continue. People are angry over the federal government’s blatant efforts to rig the September city council election. The 45 member council has long been dominated by pro-Putin members but this time the polls show most voter support is going to opposition politicians. The current government, run by Vladimir Putin and his KGB cronies, is visibly losing its popular support and the Moscow unrest is the latest manifestation of this. Despite the restoration of the many police state aspects of the old Soviet Union, and a constant diet of “we are at war with NATO” propaganda, a growing number of Russians are visibly blaming Putin and his policies for a growing list of problems. Worse are the Russians who are defying new laws against public demonstrations. In the last week there have been daily demonstrations, some with over 20,000 people. Today over 3,500 people turned out in Moscow to illegally protest the election rigging. ...

Because of declining support in opinion polls, using police state tactics on critics has now made the problem worse rather than burying it for a while. This is how the Soviet Union collapsed 1991, as did the communist governments in East Europe in 1989. Sacrificing good relations with the West for an alliance including traditional enemies like Iran, Turkey and China does not leave most Russians feeling better. That’s especially true as the economy keeps getting worse and living standards decline visibly every year since 2014. That was the year Putin sought to forcibly make Ukraine pro-Russian. That backfired badly, with Ukrainians very visibly mobilizing to stop the Russian “invasion”. Western trading partners imposed economic sanctions and a promising feature became an unwelcome revival of past mistakes.

Heck. The FUF is multiplying like bunnies.

UPDATE: And the charge leveled admits there are masses of people unhappy with Putin, no?

Russian investigators said Thursday they had detained five people as part of a criminal probe into mass unrest, in an apparent attempt to crush a wave of peaceful protests demanding fair elections.

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia could have chosen to be a friend of NATO as common victims of communism. But no. Instead Putin offered generous subsidies to entice the FUF to settle in Russia permanently.

And a more powerful China with claims on Russian territory quietly watches.

The Greek Option

The United States is looking to rotate more forces through Greece in order to have assets for the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Why?

The collaboration with Greece comes at a time of increased regional tensions, with Athens at odds with Turkey, and Russia boosting its military presence in the Mediterranean Sea.

U.S. military officials also have expressed concerns about China’s influence in the region.

In 2010, China began buying stakes in the Greek port of Piraeus, eying it as a strategic crossroads for the ambitious “Belt and Road” initiative. China now has full control of the Mediterranean port that is a gateway to southern and central Europe.

“If we want to pull a ship, a warship, into Piraeus, China can say no,” a EUCOM official told Stars and Stripes in May.

Which is odd given the history of Greek attitudes toward America and NATO:

Greece has long been one of Europe’s least favorably disposed countries toward the United States. ...

But Greece also happens to be one of the United States’ closest friends in the EU right now. Geoffrey Pyatt, Washington’s ambassador to Athens, recently praised the country as “a pillar of stability in a difficult region.” In his words, cooperation between the two nations, from imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to defense contracts, is moving at “top speed.”

The article says Greece is getting good at geopolitics. I'd say it is just a case of deciding that if their hated enemy Turkey hates NATO and America, perhaps Greece has been hasty in not liking NATO and America. Enemy of my enemy, and all that.

Either way, Greece's attitude is helpful to America and NATO.

I've been saying we need alternatives to Turkey given Erdogan's increasingly hostile attitude toward NATO. If Turkey is moving away from NATO, Greece no doubt feels more need to engage with America and NATO to deter their enduring foe.

And I've been worried about China's inroads into Greece.

So more cooperation with Greece addresses two American concerns.