Belarus Tries to Avoid Being a Road

Belarus, the most important territory in Europe today, is tugged between Europe, America, and Russia. It is moving closer to Russia--with options. Belarus dictator Lukashenko hopes to do better than Belgium in 1914 in denying it was a mere road.

Belarus under Lukashenko will arm up while easing closer to Russia:

Belarus’ new Military Doctrine reflects its closer alignment with Russia. The updated document is more critical of NATO activities and enlargement, as well as the United States’ military preponderance in Europe. The war in Ukraine and the Western response have intensified Minsk’s concerns. For one thing, it vividly demonstrates what might happen to Belarus itself were it to permit too much Western influence for Russia’s liking.

Additionally, the war justifies steps to modernize and strengthen Belarus’ military, which can help not only deter foreign threats but also intimidate and defeat potential insurrectionists. According to the updated doctrine, Minsk is worried about its neighbors’ military buildups and the unstable balance of power in the region. 

Belarus' additional movement toward Russia begun in 2020 during what I judged an Anschluss is partly out of fear of Russia and not simply fear of the West. Which is why I suspect (or I'm simply letting my hope color my judgment) that Belarus wants to loosen its reliance on Russia. Not that its leadership is pining to be a free Western country. But it wants room to maneuver.

While Russia's placement of theater nukes in Belarus seems like an anti-Western move, I wonder if Belarus aspires to get control of the nuclear-capable missiles to deter any intervention inside Belarus. Assuming Russia has sent real nuclear warheads to Belarus, of course.

Belarus is also reaching out to China--the dominant actor in the Russia-China alignment--as that initial article notes. And Belarus adds another interesting spin to its bank shot for retaining independence:

Not even the door to Europe is completely closed. In the new strategic documents, Minsk refrains from accusing the European Union of posing a direct threat to its national security. Instead, it portrays the Europeans as victims of aggressive U.S. and British policies that it says destabilize Europe and deprive EU countries of their strategic autonomy.

Huh. Preaching to the EU choir on strengthening the EU's defense role to eject NATO--through which America and Britain contribute to European defense rather than through the EU.

The West needs to peel Belarus away from Russian dominance. Ukraine's defense problems are reduced by eliminating that flank threat. And Russia loses options to attack NATO in the Kaliningrad-to Estonia area. We saw Russia use Belarus as a road to strike south toward Kiev. We don't want Russia striking west through Belarus. Hell, Ukraine saw the threat to them coming because of that exercise. Do we think NATO is special if Putin sees opportunity?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

A Maginot Line in the Strait

Asymmetric means do not mean defense-in-depth is obsolete. Don't count on sinking a Chinese invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait.

Can Taiwan and its allies really meet this objective to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

“[The Taiwanese and their allies] need anti-ship cruise missiles, sea mines, mobile artillery, mobile air defenses, unmanned aerial vehicles… It comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours”.

That's a lot to sink. As I observed in this post:

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

And that's aside from whether airborne and air mobile forces are the key part of the invasion spearhead. 

As I wrote here about what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like:

I go on further in my invasion scenario that holds up pretty well, I think, given it is 18 years old.

I think special forces, direct-action spies, infiltrated light forces, airborne and airliftable forces, limited amphibious operations, and a lot of assaults on Taiwan's ports with PLA Army troops carried by Chinese Coast Guard and civilian vessels would be the means of getting ashore. 

The Chinese objective would be Taipei, going for the jugular with both airborne and air mobile forces and the smaller amphibious force:

China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.

One thing I still hold is that China does not plan an invasion over Taiwan's limited beaches. If China planned D-Day 2.0, China would have built up its marine force and amphibious lift to do that. Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests. If those forces were needed, China would have far more by now. 

Taiwan needs to do more than build a Maginot Line in the Taiwan Strait that if pierced ends Taiwanese resistance:

Taiwan's defense problems are far greater than they were when the Taiwan Strait was an insurmountable barrier to Chinese invasion. But Taiwan still needs to defeat the Chinese in battle to retain their independence. There is no cheap asymmetrical way to defeat China. Taiwan must raise the costs of invasion at every part of the combat spectrum, from invasion to resistance, to deter China.

I worry Taiwanese morale could collapse with a misplaced emphasis on winning at sea. It's a grave error to go bargain hunting in defense of your freedom.

Mind you, sinking 300 Chinese ships in 48 hours would be very useful. Maybe even decisive, depending on what happens ashore. I just wouldn't count on it winning the war no matter how many ships are sunk and troops are killed. Always check the Definitions Section for "victory," eh? 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

"Dormant" NATO?

A "dormant" NATO is a door mat welcoming aggression from Moscow and Brussels.

The concept of promoting a "Dormant NATO" that will push Europe to spend more on defense without our presence is new to me. But it has been swirling around out there for a while:

A Dormant NATO stops all future NATO expansion. It keeps NATO on ice, as the name suggests, only to be activated in times of crisis. It defunds the woke NATO bureaucracy—bloated, independent, self-sustaining, and often hostile to conservative values and American interests. Most importantly, it coerces Europe by fixing a timeframe after which the armor, logistics, artillery, intel, and infantry pass on to European hands in both combination and command, with America staying only as a fireman to be called in times of need. Everything other than American nuclear and naval power will be the security burden of Europe.

I addressed it earlier, concluding that it making NATO dormant is based on fantasies about reality, based on claiming NATO is a sign that America is an empire, that without NATO the European Union will fall apart, and that reducing American forces in Europe even more than the drastic cuts since we won the Cold War would be decisive in fixing our budget deficits. 

Jesus, make The Stupid go away. This is so mind-numbingly bad advice that I can hardly believe anyone pays attention to it.

But it seems to be gathering strength in parts of the Republican Party. So let's have a go at it again, shall we?

At its core, the concept suffers from a fatal flaw. It assumes that protecting Europe is a gift from America rather than a vital American national security issue.

If the issue is increase European defense spending, mission accomplished! Europe is reacting to the Russian threat by spending more on defense and spending to prop up Ukrainian resistance to Russia's invasion.

But let's go back to the author's definition and break down the points:

Stop NATO expansion.

By this I assume he means Ukraine. Or would NATO reject Switzerland if it applied for membership?  Practically speaking, Ukraine isn't coming into NATO while war rages and unless Russia is completely defeated and is compelled by weakness to stand down on that issue, I don't see NATO membership as an option. But cooperation with NATO--as Ukraine and NATO do now--must continue to keep Russia from re-starting the war.

Put NATO "on ice" to reactivate it during a crisis.

It takes time to thaw something frozen. And over time, frozen items go bad. Habits of working together and making sure equipment, the language of warfare concepts, and command and control are compatible will erode. And what counts as a crisis? And raise your hand if you think the Europeans will consider their job to hold America's place to race back in to "reactivate" American command of NATO?

Bueller?

A Europe with its own broad capacity to wage war can--brace yourself--wage war without America. In a major sense this Dormant NATO idea is a rehash of Obama's "leading from behind." Countries that can act on their own won't do our bidding.

Having fun yet?

Further, you absolutely know that any call by America's government to reinforce NATO during that crisis will be called "throwing fuel on the fire" by isolationists who will want nothing to do with NATO. Europe can handle it, they'll say. Or they'll say Europe caused the crisis for some made-up reason. And of course, we have a more urgent problem that demands all of our attention! 

Spring into action, indeed.

And then this argument gets just bizarre. While arguing to get America to put NATO on ice, the author claims that if the EU goes rogue in our absence--Wait. What? Isn't our absence supposed to undermine the EU?--that "all the U.S. has to do is pull the security rug from under Europe’s feet and let it disintegrate." What drugs do you have to be on to believe that this is a heads America wins and tails the EU loses issue? And if a more powerful EU disintegrates without America there, who picks up the pieces? Luxembourg? Or Russia?

Defunds the "woke" NATO bureaucracy.

FFS. In what way does that help with the problem of wokeness? We have to fix it here and then it will move through the system of an active NATO that America dominates. Will Europeans really make NATO better under their command and control as America goes home to wait for a crisis to reactivate participation? 

Coerces Europe into creating the armor, logistics, artillery, intel, and infantry to take up the burden. And puts it under European command.

"Take up" the ground warfare burden? America only has two brigades permanently based in Europe--a Stryker light mechanized brigade and a parachute brigade. Add a single armored brigade rotating through Europe to cope with the Russian threat to European security. FFS, people, Europe already fields the vast majority of those ground assets in Europe. Face it, we already "came home." And we already rely on European transportation infrastructure. If the author is talking about sustaining military power with arms and ammunition, Europe is in fact slowly waking up to that issue. As we are. Don't pretend we didn't fail on this issue, too.

And is the author suggesting that the intel "burden" on America be lifted by denying Europeans that information or by getting rid of those assets to save money? Isn't intelligence on the enemy--and on our allies--all the more important to have when we need to thaw out that NATO-on-ice to help it spring into action in a crisis? 

America will keep the naval burden.

So we have to expand our Navy even more to not only cope with China's rising aero-naval power but to take on the burden of the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea where few American ships sail now? Is the author feeling the phantom limbs of giant American Second and Third Fleets that once roamed European seas from Greenland to the Suez Canal? Those days are long gone. Those fleets are long gone. We rely on European navies for numbers in European waters.

And America's nuclear umbrella will still cover Europe. (This includes American air power, which otherwise went unmentioned.) 

This is where The Stupid really multiplies like bunnies.

America guarantees that if conventional military defense falters then America will nuke Russia to keep Europe from being conquered. And that guarantee is given without American ground forces or even command and control in place in NATO to deter the Russians from starting a war. Or defeating them if Russia invades anyway. 

So we won't risk American soldiers in conventional combat over there. But we will totally put our cities on the line to go toe-to-toe with the Russkies in a nuclear war?

Just shoot me now.

Also, does the claim on air power roles mean that the Europeans should cancel their many orders for American F-35 fighters and disband what they have because that's America's job?

God almighty. What have I done to deserve this punishment?

Unless America slashes its force structure rather than move the shadows of our Cold War military presence in Europe back home (in case you skipped over the first time I linked this), the savings in military spending won't pan out for America. We'll simply need to put American forces over here rather than over there. Indeed, if the author's claim is to want NATO to spring into action in a crisis with American participation, the cost of rapidly reinforcing NATO with American forces will increase because of the need for more sealift and airlift capabilities.

It pained me to read this dreck. It is retreat disguised as strategy. Just Afghanistan 2021 all over again but in a far more vital part of the world.

When isolationist Americans see a gathering threat, they often say America should stay out of the way and let a coalition of other friendly states naturally react to that threat and band together to defeat it without America. Win-win, the isolationists say.

But when an enemy claims America is a threat, those isolationists never say the enemy of America should just chill out and let a coalition of America's other enemies rise to the challenge. Oh no, those isolationists say that the enemy's worry is actually justified. And America should negotiate to give that enemy enough to eliminate their worry about the so-called American threat. 

And for additional nuance those analysts may say that if we don't offer concessions on something, the enemy might do something even worse.

A Dormant NATO isn't about letting NATO rest so it is prepared to spring into action bigger and better with more European heft. It's hospice care at best and assisted suicide at worst to ease NATO into oblivion.

Seriously, people. How is this proposal a real thing? The whole idea is a word salad of faulty Venn diagrams that claim to overlap with protecting American security interests. It ranks right up there with Unicorn-powered Green energy as a fantasy world of idiocy. 

Just let The Stupid go dormant.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Pakistan Gets Predictably Whacked With the Clue Bat

Can you even believe that Pakistan's long policy of harboring and supporting jihadis who eventually took over Afghanistan as America fled has resulted in jihadis in Afghanistan attacking Pakistan? 

Well that's just sad:

The Taliban on [May 8th] rejected claims of Afghan involvement in recent attacks in Pakistan, calling it “irresponsible and far from the reality.”

Pakistan’s military said Tuesday a suicide bombing that killed five Chinese engineers and a Pakistani driver in March was planned in neighboring Afghanistan and that the bomber was an Afghan citizen.

My sympathy for Pakistan only has a floor below which it can't sink because jihadis can't be precisely aimed the way Pakistan thought.

Pakistan provided sanctuary for jihadis while America waged war in Afghanistan. We didn't like it, but we relied on lines of supply through Pakistan even as those supplies were used to fight the jihadis that had sanctuary in Pakistan.

Supporting the jihadis didn't result in the lasting gratitude that Pakistani rulers expected.

I warned that Pakistan would not enjoy their victory:

Without an easy outlet for jihadi urges in Pakistan across the border in Afghanistan, Pakistani Islamists may turn their attention fully against the Pakistani government. And the jihadi threat was there well before the Taliban won[.]

While America fought the Taliban, the Pakistani government could survive with American aid. No more.

Boy Assad made the same mistake thinking he could aim jihadis at his enemies:

Assad has discovered that you can't make a deal with the Devil and expect to be better off for it.

Jihadis were once Assad's ally against America in Iraq. That hasn't worked out in the end:

Syrian President Bashar Assad’s anti-U.S. strategy during the 2003-11 Iraq War has come back to bite him.

Mr. Assad allowed al Qaeda operatives to set up a “rat line” through his country and into northeastern Iraq. Hundreds of young terrorists, many recruited from North Africa, took airline flights into Damascus and joined networks ready to sneak them across the border.

Mr. Assad’s objective: to keep the U.S. occupation off balance by helping al Qaeda kill Americans.

But Mr. Assad’s move also enabled al Qaeda to set up a logistics foothold in Syria that now is being used against him.

Indeed. Five years ago, on the news of a car-bombing in Syria, I noted my suspicion that this could happen[.]

If Pakistan's rulers thought the lesson of Assad doesn't apply to their support of Sunni Taliban because he is an Alawite (kind of Shia) and Pakistani rulers are fellow Sunni, they made a grave mistake. Jihadis hate everyone.

Does Pakistan think its objective of putting the Taliban in power will be worth the price Pakistan will pay? 

Captain Obvious could answer that question.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Expands the Free-Fire Zone

Putin has ordered the creation of a buffer zone inside Ukraine north of the Donbas. The Kharkiv offensive is apparently part of this. Unless this is disinformation to shield building jumping off points for a deeper and larger offensive, this will cause problems for Russian troops who can be targeted with American weapons now.

Is this Russia's objective in the Kharkiv region?

Russia continues to pound Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region in an offensive that has seen the active combat zone grow as Moscow looks to establish what President Vladimir Putin called a "buffer zone."

Ukrainians claim they are handicapped by American rules that don't let them shoot at Russian targets inside Russia with American weapons. And when the front line is the border, that gives Russia sort of a sanctuary:

A Ukrainian commander operating near the Russian border described how his unit watched as Russia amassed a huge force but had to wait for the troops to cross the border to hit them.

Although why Ukraine couldn't use its own weapons without that restriction is unclear to me. They couldn't go deep but they could strike targets inside Russia.

Since the Russian offensive north of Kharkiv grabbed chunks of territory, the Russians have seemingly lowered their effort:

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.

Ukraine's efforts are thus far localized counter-attacks. Russia's intentions are unknown as it seemingly builds up and organizes forces inside Russia in the area.

I'm conflicted about this new front. Russia gains more land. And a buffer zone.

But with Russian troops pushing into Ukraine, limits on the use of American weapons becomes moot. The "sanctuary" inside Russia becomes less of a handicap. Indeed, isn't it a free-fire zone?

I concede that a shallow Russian buffer zone still leaves a lot of the more vulnerable support elements inside the Russia semi-sanctuary. But despite the loss of territory, the sanctuary problem is eased.

And if Russia intends to simply hold that line inside Ukraine to defend Russian territory from Ukrainian bombardment rather than use it as a jumping off point to invade deeper, doesn't it just make Russian troops permanent targets? 

But of course, a release of American and other Western state limits on using weapons on military targets inside Russia would hurt Russia. And there is apparent movement across NATO to lift restrictions. If that happens, if the big Russian offensive takes place Moscow will find that it doesn't have the deep sanctuary that it may have counted on.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I noted a Ukrainian strike on a Russian space surveillance radar in Crimea. ISW notes this:

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian long-range early warning radar systems and oil and gas infrastructure within Russia on May 26 and 27.

Combined with Ukraine shooting down a Russian AWACS to brush them back from the plate, is this part of a Ukrainian effort to give their new F-16s some space by degrading Russian ground-based radar coverage?

UPDATE (Tuesday): Easing into ending the sanctuary:

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called on member states to lift their prohibitions against Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike within Russian territory.

Russia won't like it. But the West doesn't like Russia brutally invading without cause a sovereign state with the right to exist. I say we win the battle of "don't likes."

UPDATE (Wednesday): I heard that the Ukrainian strikes on those missile radars are about enabling Ukrainian ATACMS strikes in Crimea. ... Wait. What? They returned to the topic and an analyst said the elimination of those radars will make it safer for Ukrainian F-16s.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Germany doesn't have nukes but France does:

France and Germany said Tuesday that Ukraine should be allowed to use their weapons against targets inside Russia from which Moscow attacks Ukraine.

In other news:

In a major new development for the Ukrainian military, Sweden is to provide it with two Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft equipped with Erieye radar. 

As the article states, this will be a big deal when Ukraine gets F-16s. Operating within the large radar detection footprint of that plane, the F-16 will fight more effectively.

Plus other military gear. Sweden is standing up as a new NATO ally.  

UPDATE (Friday): Ukraine struck Russia's Kerch Strait ferry link:

The night attack, carried out with ATACMS missiles, struck the Kerch ferry crossing, which had been a crucial supply line for Russian forces in the region.

The bridge was not attacked.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

 

Two more good jihadi leaders: "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the country’s foreign minister were found dead Monday hours after their helicopter crashed in fog, leaving the Islamic Republic without two key leaders as extraordinary tensions grip the wider Middle East." Don't rule out killer tomato attack.

Interesting: "The Navy is on track to homeport four Independence-class littoral combat ships in Bahrain next year as part of a new mine countermeasures force in the Middle East, service officials said."

China builds its first super carrier and American carriers prepare to meet them. I worry that the Chinese carriers are bait.

Did Ukraine's campaign against Russian air defenses hollow out Russia's air defenses to enable Ukraine's deep drone strikes inside Russia?

Why the panic over Kharkiv? And yeah, predictions of Ukraine's doom assume current trends accelerate. But Russia pays a price. That's a problem of analysis: You see your side's problems much more clearly than you see the enemy's. Still, trends must be reversed or Russia keeps its conquests. Via Instapundit.

As Ukraine expands its drone and sabotage attacks into Russia, I have to admit that my fear that strikes inside Russia would rally Russians to Putin's side was wrong. Of course, a portion may have rallied. But there is no obvious upsurge in determination to pay any price to defeat Ukraine. 

Attention is needed. Alone this doesn't repel China: "After more than four years of negotiation, economic-assistance funding has been approved under the Compacts of Association, the agreements that govern U.S. relations with Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia." Kudos to Biden. 

It's certainly another flashpoint: "If war breaks out in the Indo-Pacific, it will not be over Taiwan but over the atolls and shoals dotting the South China Sea. [The Philippines ambassador to Washington called] these sovereignty disputes, particularly between China and the Philippines, the region’s “real flashpoint.”

Smart Diplomacy®: "The United States expresses its official condolences for the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran." He's a thug. But Democrats loove mullah-run Iran. They're confused.

Optics? "The Biden administration was close to transferring 11 detainees out of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to a country in the Middle East in October 2023, but abruptly halted the move amid concerns about political optics after Hamas’ attack on Israel[.]" They should age and die there. 

Drawing a line in the sea: "The U.S. Army is exporting its Joint Pacific Multinational Combat Training Center to the Philippines as the Southeast Asia country seeks to enhance and modernize its defense strategy."

Good to show we care: "Washington could sign off on a sweeping package of economic and security support for Georgia if its government abandons its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and stops backsliding on human rights." I hope this isn't just a drive-by to pretend we care.

Progressing--but with hiccups: "The Czech-led initiative to fund and procure urgently artillery ammo for Ukraine is progressing steadily – the first 180,000 shells have been contracted and should arrive by June[.]"

The West was surprised that Russia speedily rebuilt its army. I was not. That's why since fall 2022 I desperately wanted a counteroffensive before Russia could recover. Russia bounced back from their 1939 debacle invading Finland and could do it again, I feared. The rebuilt army isn't good. But it's an army.

Kadyrov is bargaining with Putin to send more Chechen fighters to fight Ukraine.

The strangely vulnerable Finnish Aland Islands: "The self-governing archipelago stretching across the middle of the Baltic Sea officially belongs to Finland, its residents speak Swedish, and Russia is tasked with enforcing an accord that has banned any military presence on its shores for over a century."

Interesting: "Egypt is now building a 13.5 kilometer wall from the Mediterranean inland to the Israeli border town of Kerem Shalom to keep the Palestinian refugees fleeing the Hamas-Israel violence in Gaza."

France built a jet-powered anti-tank suicide drone: "Veloce 330 is expensive for a UAV, costing over $200,000 each." Speed and jamming defenses increase the costs, I imagine. And other drone stuff plus a digression--because they can--into firing rifles.

It would be nice if Iranians decided Allah gave them a good start on overthrowing the mullahs: "Funeral ceremonies have begun in Iran for president Ebrahim Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other victims of Sundays helicopter crash." But Iran could get away with shooting and hanging Iranians.

No! Way! "[From the U.S.-built pier] on Saturday, only five truckloads made it to the warehouse after 11 others were cleaned out by Palestinians during the journey through an area that a U.N. official said has been hard to access with humanitarian aid."

It's mainly for testing: "The Navy on Friday took another step toward creating a surface fleet seamlessly integrated with uncrewed vessels by formally establishing its second unmanned surface drone unit."

Would China strike Canada in an expanding war for Taiwan? Is Canada a weak link in North American defense?

The Army will upgrade and overhaul its M270 armored, tracked MRLS vehicles for future rockets.

I weirdly get a bunch of hits from Hong Kong lately. I assume this is a VPN disguising the point of origin. But I really don't know what is going on.

I wish more government officials would vow to stay in their lanes as I did. Sure reinforces my determination to keep doing this. Tip to Instapundit.

Welcome mat: "Top Finnish defense officials are moving closer to finalizing proposals aimed at filling the country’s NATO membership with life. One key consideration, which may require amendments to Finland’s constitution, relates to the hosting of alliance forces on Finnish soil."

It's perfectly appropriate to mourn a murdering, anti-American thug. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® Tip to Instapundit.

FFS, this is for a supply emergency--is it really? Tip to Instapundit.

Weapons R Us.

China struggles to keep their Burma vassal.

That seems dark [LINK FIXED]: "U.S. military forces training and deploying from their bases and stations for a future conflict or crisis will likely face a growing variety of threats close to home." Should I worry about more than what I do?

Jihadis seem so nice: "Hundreds of hostages, mostly children and women, who were held captive for months or years by Boko Haram extremists in northeastern Nigeria have been rescued from a forest enclave and handed over to authorities, the army said."

As night follows day, and as flying spittle follows rage, Putin waves about his nuclear missiles. Yawn.

Russia seemingly moved to unilaterally expand its territorial waters in the Baltic Sea--then deleted the notice.

Huh: "Norway, Ireland and Spain said Wednesday they would recognize a Palestinian state, a historic but largely symbolic move[.]" How did Hamas earn that? The October 7, 2023 murder, rape, and kidnapping invasion? Or Israel's decision to fight so such a mass atrocity can't happen again? The rewards escalate.

The harassment is probably more valuable than the damage: "The 'Code 9.2' drone unit, from the 92nd assault brigade, are moving into a new launch position from where they are about to conduct a rare and potent mission: flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory."

This seems like a hyper-velocity shot in their own foot: "Russian physicist Anatoly Maslov was convicted of treason and sentenced to 14 years in a penal colony on Tuesday in the latest of several cases against experts working on the science underpinning Russia's development of hypersonic missiles." Ah, paranoia.

I'm calling BS on this: "Broadly using 'China' as a threat can strengthen CCP narratives and alienate non-CCP Chinese communities." Everyone knows "China" means the CCP-controlled state. Let's not descend into paralyzed drooling idiocy. 

Useful for static positions--if it it works: "After receiving four high-power microwave prototypes designed to stop drone swarms, the US Army is preparing to send them on to the Middle East to see how they perform[.]"

The China-Pakistan axis. I don't think that Pakistan is enough to enable a Chinese wartime presence in the Indian Ocean. But China has A2/AD options there. At least America isn't paying to sustain Pakistan. Good luck to China on that.

I've been informed by strategists that this means Russia forfeits its right to independence: "A deputy chief of the Russian military general staff has been arrested on charges of large-scale bribery, Russian news reports said Thursday, the latest in a series of bribery arrests of high-ranking military officials."

True love: "Whistleblowers’ emails reveal John Kerry blocked the FBI and DOJ from arresting Iranian terrorists and agents on U.S. soil in order to protect his Iran deal." Because of course he did. Tip to Instapundit.

Fear of what we would do to Iran would be better protection: "American army engineers in the Middle East are building reinforced above-ground bunkers to protect soldiers from the impact of larger and more powerful ballistic missiles being used against them." But ... 

But they're such polite budding fascists. Tip to Instapundit.

F**k the ICC: "Hamas' use of so-called human shields -- that is, human hostages positioned between Hamas terrorist murderers and Israeli weapons -- is a crime." Israel is fighting as clean as it can--under the rules of war. Hamas fights dirty. Spent shell casings and dead Palestinians are just the detritus of their war.

Hamas rapists and murderers thanks their supporters in the West. Tip to Instapundit.

I'd rather have a U.S.-Saudi security deal--but details are important--than focus on preventing Israel from entering Rafah to finish off Hamas battalions able to function in Gaza. While the author isn't interested in the Middle East, the Middle East is very interested in us. Also, U.S. ships and planes oppose China, too.

This author says Israel is defeating Hamas. I disagree with the author's dismissal of COIN in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it's true you can't win the hearts and minds of an enemy that hates you. Israel wants to smash and contain Hamas within Gaza so October 7, 2023 can't happen again. That's the "day after" plan.

But could China sustain a blockade? "China on Thursday encircled Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in war games aimed at punishing the self-ruled island after its new president vowed to defend democracy."

Loafers on the ground in New Caledonia: "Arriving in Nouméa after a 24-hour flight from Paris, President Macron said he wanted the return of peace, calm and security 'as quickly as possible'."

Sweden should definitely hold Gotland: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is targeting a strategic Swedish island that offers mastery over the Baltic Sea, the commander-in-chief of Sweden's army warned this week." But Russia is doomed there, surrounded by NATO states all around the sea.

A provider and not just a consumer of security: "Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Wednesday announced that his country would give Ukraine a further €6.5 billion ($7 billion) in military aid spread over three years to ward off Russia's invasion."

Some Israeli ministers want a "day after" plan for Gaza. Don't get distracted from the need to crush Hamas on the battlefield. Israel needs a rebuilt hate-free Gaza with a coexisting counter-example. Could a virtual Pal-E-stine state be part of a plan?

This example of a "prominent role" is a particularly bad idea: "The Biden administration is considering appointing a U.S. official to serve as the top civilian adviser to a mostly Palestinian force when the Israel-Hamas conflict ends[.]" The advisor will be a shield to protect Hamas. Even if it doesn't start that way.

The B-21.

So a LCS, a dry cargo ship, and a Dutch frigate walk into a sea: "A pair of U.S. Navy ships took advantage of a rare chance to train alongside a Dutch vessel this week in the South China Sea, according to U.S. 7th Fleet." 

A disturbing lack of a sense of urgency: "The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from U.S. F-16 training, a National Guard official told Air & Space Forces Magazine on May 23." This is taking way too long.

Sure, Assad wants to reduce Iran's influence in Syria after Iran helped Assad slaughter his opposition. And Russia would like to shiv its Iran rival. But now Russia needs Iran's weapons to invade Ukraine. So Assad looks to America. But the monster Assad only wants to leverage our aid. And Biden won't harm Iran.

China is used to bullying Manila: "The Philippines will continue to build security alliances and stage joint combat drills in disputed waters to defend its territorial interests, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Friday, dismissing China’s criticisms of such moves as paranoia."

We now know Kenya's price for sending troops to pacify Haiti is: "President Biden on Thursday announced his intent to designate Kenya as a major non-NATO U.S. ally, the first such designation for a sub-Saharan African country."

How the "our" democracy form of elections works: "In May Iran held national elections and hardline pro-Islam candidates obtained 233 of the 290 parliament seats. The candidates for election must be approved by the government, which is dominated by conservative religious leaders." I object to "conservative".

Robot pilots: "What is novel about ROBOPilot is not that it can replace a human pilot, but that the ROBOPilot equipment is flexible enough to be quickly installed in any manned aircraft. ROBOPilot software has to have an electronic profile of each aircraft it can be installed in and has to be tested [.]" 

Hearing the International Court of Justice complain that Gazans are being "displaced" from Rafah is a complaint against Israel evacuating civilians from a looming combat zone to protect them. Huh. 

Stay away: "Taiwan scrambled jets and put missile, naval and land units on alert Thursday over Chinese military exercises being conducted around the self-governing island democracy where a new president took office this week."

On Memorial Day, I will repeat that rules of war are really more about protecting our soldiers from what they must do in war: "'It ain’t the dying that’s scary, boy, it’s the killing.' [And] when they come home from war, they must learn to live again as a civilian." Although Veterans Day is for remembering that.

Marines are getting an upgraded LAW disposable rocket launcher that can be fired from inside buildings or bunkers. Also, the trigger is no longer on top where firing can disrupt aiming. 

The new high ground: "The National Reconnaissance Office said it launched the first satellites in its proliferated constellation, which will provide rapid data collection and delivery across multiple orbits."

Decline: "The U.N. forecasts China's population, now the world's third largest [Huh?] after India, will shrink from 1.4 billion to 1.31 billion by 2050. Yi argues that the prediction is too optimistic[.]" He sees one billion in 2050--if its fertility rate doesn't drop below 0.8. The decline has been evident for some time.

I'd like to believe it's that easy: "Two of the world's most important chip companies can flip a 'kill switch' remotely on their most advanced chipmaking machines should China invade Taiwan, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter." The chips made will work, of course. Via Instapundit.

Huh: "Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment." My "Kargil scenario" for Narva post was timely.

New Caledonia unrest: "Macron’s supreme arrogance is now tearing apart the French empire[.]" Macron took his eye off the ball of keeping his remnant of empire together to pursue his real imperial objective.

The U.S. announced another batch of assistance to Ukraine, apparently mostly ammunition. Plus some protective gear for chemical weapons, which is good because Russia has been routinely using banned tear gas grenades on Ukrainian troops.

What he said: "It is one thing to say that protecting America’s borders is of equal or greater importance than protecting Ukraine’s. It makes no sense to argue, however, that if money is not allocated to protect America’s borders, Ukraine’s should be left molested." We must help Ukraine defeat Russia in Ukraine.

Does this mean Xi and Putin think only nukes can stop them? "General Secretary Xi Jinping and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin issued an odd one-sentence communique: 'There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought.'" Or Xi laid down the law to his vassal who had to agree.

Our special forces have a new recon/strike drone. With this ability: "Beak is equipped with anti-jamming technology and will return to its launch site if the jamming overwhelms the GPS navigation system." Why can't the enemy jam the drone, watch it return to the launch site, and drop rounds on the location?

As American military aid resumes, the Kremlin spreads rumors that Putin wants to negotiate. But he won't give up his conquests. All he wants talks to do is slow Western aid to Ukraine and buy time to repair his ground forces.

 

We are not going to "transition" from fossil fuels to "Green": "The world will need all forms of energy production imaginable. An 'energy transition' would only restrict energy supplies—and that’s not going to happen." Middle East energy exports remain crucial, even if America buys nothing. Via Instapundit.

Ukraine is installing anti-suicide "cope cages" plus explosive reactive armor panels on its Abrams tanks. Good. Tanks die. They do.

Russia is running out of armored vehicles: "Recently, the Ukrainian army has recorded an increase in the number of assault operations by enemy units on motorcycles, buggies and golf carts or unarmored Ural trucks encased in anti-drone cages." And "turtle tanks." Ukraine can beat Putin's Potemkin-ish army.

The B-21 is extremely stealthy. I assume the fleet size means they will be used in the Pacific for long-range conventional strikes against PLA ships and ground targets, and not just nuclear roles. But stealthy isn't invisible. How long before air defenses use AI-equipped optical sensors to find and track them?

Japan is joining a significant biennial American exercise: "About 4,000 Japanese troops, eight vessels and 60 aircraft will join Valiant Shield from June 7 to 18, the Japanese spokesman said."

Ukraine plans to cut 2/3 of bloated senior staff officers: "'With the released personnel, it is planned to replenish units at the operational and tactical levels, as well as military combat units,' said Brig Gen Yevhen Ostryansky, head of Ukrainian military defence planning." Lower ranks will be empowered, too. 

Communism is as evil as Nazism (tip to Instapundit). I don't know how much of the evil has been infused in Russian society after many generations of Marxist poison. Or maybe there is a reason Russian society embraced it. Either way, I don't want Russia any farther west than it is now. And I worry about that.

Does this mean that Russia considers the former Wagner fighters included in the force are loyal enough--or better off dead on the battlefield? "Russia has deployed Africa Corps units to aid its offensive in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, UK Intel says."

"Unrest" is almost always bad for tourism: "France has begun evacuating tourists from its overseas territory of New Caledonia after days of unrest in the Pacific archipelago." 

The cell phone goes to war. 

Thankfully we have allies: "Currently the actual Chinese defense budget is $700 billion a year, nearly as much as the United States spends. China claims it is spending less but does so by ignoring spending that the Americans include and the Chinese are now matching what the United States spends."

Remember that when America left South Vietnam, the "peace" treaty allowed North Vietnam to keep their troops in place inside South Vietnam. North Vietnam reloaded and from those positions, invaded South Vietnam and conquered it in 1975. Don't pressure Ukraine to do that, too. 

Hmmm: "Himars rocket launchers supplied to Ukraine by the US have been left “completely ineffective” because of Russian electronic jamming systems." And other GPS-guided ammunition, too. No doubt there is at least some truth to this report. Is this over-stating the effects to mislead Russia?

In more news for those emerging from a decade-long coma: "An exiled Iranian resistance group has uncovered damning evidence showing top regime officials' direct involvement in supporting the Houthis in their attacks against ships in the Red Sea." File this away in the "Well, Duh" folder.

What's Putin's Priority List for His Territorial Ambitions?

Where will Putin's loving gaze fall next when the current Winter War of 2022 ends, regardless of the specifics of the outcome?

Is Kazakhstan Russia's next target? 

This essay, rather than answer questions or recommend policies, instead poses a question that has not received sufficient attention and that when posed, merely generates still more questions. Is Kazakhstan, rather than another European state, Russia’s next target? This is not an idle or frivolous question, quite the contrary. Admittedly many NATO members and NATO’s senior leaders have recently warned that Russia has designs on their territory and within 3-8 years (depending on the speaker) might attack them. Those warnings are certainly well founded. Nevertheless, and although the European situation is certainly alarming and a rightful U.S. priority; we cannot, however, exclude alternative threats from Russia to other neighbors.

It might have been--before the lingering and bloody Winter War of 2022--"next".

But now, Ukraine must be finally defeated. That could--and should if the West acts responsibly in its interests--be never. 

But yeah, Russia might want to take Kazakhstan before China moves in and can't be budged. I wonder if China on the clock while Russia flails in Ukraine? 

Heck, are there opportunities to flip Russia in that struggle, now? 

Honestly, if Putin is looking for his next war, I'd expect non-NATO Georgia to be the smaller--and fragmented--target for a rebuilt Russian army to see if this time for sure it doesn't stink up the battlefield.

NATO Estonia is lower on the list but not immune: 

Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment.

My "Kargil scenario" for Narva post was timely.

But every former part of the Russian Empire will surely be addressed if Russia isn't stopped and given reason to reform into a normal country more interested in prosperity than territorial expanstion. 

UPDATE: Related:

Russia has begun probing the borders of Finland and Estonia for weaknesses as it draws up what Western security chiefs suspect is a long-term plan to capture parts of the Baltic region after the war in Ukraine.

I wouldn't guess how long that gap is "after" the war in Ukraine is over. But it will be shorter if Russia is allowed to win the war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Pacific is Big. Use More of It

I've long worried that pivoting to the Pacific invites disaster if we simply pack forces into bases within easy range of Chinese strike assets. Say ... how about all those PLA missiles?

This is what I'm talking about:

American warships and bases in the Pacific are within reach of an increasingly worrying threat, a daunting missile force unlike any the US has faced in combat before. ...

The "dramatic expansion" of the Chinese missile arsenal, especially MRBMs and IRBMs, is designed to threaten US forces and allies across the Indo-Pacific region, Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a retired US Navy submarine officer, said.

Packing our best assets into the few bases we have for a theater-wide Pearl Harbor is stupid. It's not like we can build a new fleet as we started to do on the eve of the actual Pearl Harbor. Heck, repairing damaged ships is unlikely.

Hopefully we can build up air defenses to hold off the Chinese, but I don't count on it.

The key is to survive the initial blows with minimal forces dangled in front of the Chinese tempting them to attack, gather forces from safer--not safe--bases and marshal logistics, and counter-attack with our allies.

And we do have our own growing anti-ship arsenal to pen the Chinese into their ports.

We have enough allies in the western Pacific--who can't go anywhere--who are already vulnerable to Chinese strikes without deploying robust air defenses. Why should we add to the Chinese kill count by essentially sinking our ships for them?

UPDATE: Good! 

Department of Defense representatives met Republic of Palau leaders and residents May 13-15 to discuss the proposed facility on the island of Peleliu[.]

It's about time we got on the ball in the Pacific. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

A Rumor of War

Are we in a pre-war era? Will the balloon go up in the next couple years? But do we really know the sides? How solid is the Russia-China alignment?

This article, drawing on historical events prior to World War II and the early Cold War, judges that China, Russia, and Iran are likely to decide war is the answer to their problems. And that time is not on their side:

Xi and Putin regard themselves as world-historical men of destiny. They believe they are capable of decisive, strategic action. Xi ranks himself with Mao and Stalin. Putin evokes the memory of Peter the Great. In China, Russia, and Iran the information and decision environments are cloistered.

In China, Russia, and Iran the propaganda ministries have already been preparing their populations for a time of war, great sacrifice, and existential struggle.

North Korea has been preparing for war they say is imminent since the 1953 ceasefire, of course.

Of note, the author shows that China's price for peace is pretty steep despite the soft words:

In 2023, Chinese leaders made a strategic choice to replace defiant “wolf warriors” with peace offerings, extending olive branches, inviting mutual cooperation and peaceful coexistence. In this strategy, the burden of choice thus shifts to the United States and others to decide whether to accept these offers.

This Chinese articulation of their San Francisco vision bears a striking, eerie resemblance to the “spirit of Camp David.” That phrase, of Soviet coinage, arose in September 1959. The context was the first year of the second Berlin crisis. 

Like the "spirit of Camp David" the Chinese speak of a "spirit of San Francisco" where Xi met Biden and explained that "peaceful coexistence" means America stands aside to allow China to absorb Taiwan.

I have serious doubts that throwing Taiwan under the bus will sate China's appetites. Eisenhower refused to throw West Berlin to the Soviets in that earlier period of a spirit between foes. Just because war didn't follow that decision doesn't mean that is the example to follow, of course. But who thinks surrendering West Berlin would have led the Soviets to say, "that's enough. Let's coexist!"

But the author is persuasive. Do read it. If it is war China chooses, the author thinks the most likely course is that China initiates a de facto blockade of Taiwan combined with a willingness to use force against America if it tries to break it. This would put the decision for initiating war on America, he says.

Although the author says things might work out if Chinese and Russian leaders decide to muddle through an era that isn't too bad, really, and holds promise for outlasting the ADHD West's attention span. The chances could be pretty high that this is the path. But they might not. And action could follow quickly from a decision for war.

But if we are in a pre-war period, what are the sides for the war to come? In his two eras we saw flips in the two camps. Before World War II, implacable enemies Germany and the USSR dramatically--if temporarily--linked arms. And in the early Cold War era, the USSR-China monolith began to crack, ultimately leading China to link arms with America to face the common threat of the USSR.

Could that happen now? I think there is a chance that Russia and China could split. Russia from fear or China from opportunism. My view is that the two are frenemies with temporary benefits rather than true allies.

China might decide that Russia's flailing war against Ukraine is too great of an unexpected opportunity to pass up for regaining territory lost in the Century of Humiliation--Russia's Far East.

Or maybe  China would settle for just a signal victory over Russia's navy with nominal--but precedent-setting--territorial adjustments.

Or maybe an indirect diplomatic war to seize dominance of Central Asia and its ex-Soviet "stans."

These might seem much better options than blockading Taiwan (officially China would just be closing the ports of its province, as China considers Taiwan). But saying that breaking the blockade puts the onus of shooting first on America is wrong. China would have to violently seize or sink civilian ships and their American escort heading to Taiwan to maintain the blockade. That was America's dilemma in the Cuban Missile Crisis when America "quarantined" Cuba to stop Soviet shipments to their nuclear bases in Cuba. The Soviets backed down rather than run the blockade. And America didn't have to make the fateful choice to shoot.

Further making a blockade of Taiwan less appealing is that America could counter-blockade China. Is China ready for that? 

China is stockpiling fuel and food and trying to reduce the vulnerability of its economy to sanctions—steps one might take as conflict nears. Xi has said China must prepare for “worst-case and extreme scenarios” and be ready to withstand “high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms.”

How long will it take for China to think it is ready? China is suspected of wanting to take Taiwan by the end of the decade. Is that a distraction to disguise the option of striking Russia or real planning? If real, doesn't that give America too much time to rebuild its defense industries?

Russia's military is decimated from the war and less able to fight a peer enemy, notwithstanding Russia's ability to continue a war against a much smaller near-peer Ukraine. Why would China strike stronger America and its allies when an easier target is unexpectedly revealed? Especially when recent news is that corruption has exposed China's military as less impressive than its new-car smell portrays. If I was head of the PLA I'd rather test its mettle against Russia than America and its allies.

Which gets us to Russian motivation for change. I've hammered on the China threat to Russia for ages and it is getting attention lately: 

Booming demand for Russians who know Chinese, a product of Putin’s turn to the East, is exacerbating long-standing fears that Moscow will lose control over lands east of the Urals.

Strategery, eh?

So perhaps getting stuck inside Ukraine while throwing hostile rhetoric at NATO is getting worrisome to Moscow as China glances at the Russian Far East more frequently with a funny, lusting look in their eyes that hadn't been there before. Maybe Putin realizes he gets the role of Mussolini if we're in a pre-war era.

And we have this report of Chinese support for Russia with a stunning claim of how Russia might pay for the aid, although I have not seen anything else to corroborate it:

China suggested, and Russia accepted, that long-standing Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of its prime coastal areas be considered as a form of payment. 

Seriously? If true, why isn't that a headline everywhere? But even if not true, it demonstrates the thinking floating around out there, no?

Perhaps Putin decides a dramatic change--however temporary he may see it--is necessary for his own survival and to keep the Far East in Russia. That would involve making peace with Ukraine on mostly Ukrainian and Western terms--with a facade of a Ukrainian concession thrown to Russia to disguise this flip--and pivoting to face China in the Far East and Central Asia before it is too late. China's military corruption is exposed so maybe Putin will think he has more time than he thought he had to pivot to Asia and rebuild his ground forces--with that Chinese aid--before China can exploit Russia's current war-caused weakness to demand territorial payment.

I've long said I've gotten an eerie inter-war vibe from events in Europe. But lately I've started to think we'll get through this. That author's article is something to ponder in opposition to my potential optimism. But maybe my optimism is because "we" doesn't include Russia and China who will finally settle their business one way or another on a battlefield.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.