Belarus, the most important territory in Europe today, is tugged between Europe, America, and Russia. It is moving closer to Russia--with options. Belarus dictator Lukashenko hopes to do better than Belgium in 1914 in denying it was a mere road.
Belarus under Lukashenko will arm up while easing closer to Russia:
Belarus’ new Military Doctrine reflects its closer alignment with Russia. The updated document is more critical of NATO activities and enlargement, as well as the United States’ military preponderance in Europe. The war in Ukraine and the Western response have intensified Minsk’s concerns. For one thing, it vividly demonstrates what might happen to Belarus itself were it to permit too much Western influence for Russia’s liking.
Additionally, the war justifies steps to modernize and strengthen Belarus’ military, which can help not only deter foreign threats but also intimidate and defeat potential insurrectionists. According to the updated doctrine, Minsk is worried about its neighbors’ military buildups and the unstable balance of power in the region.
Belarus' additional movement toward Russia begun in 2020 during what I judged an Anschluss is partly out of fear of Russia and not simply fear of the West. Which is why I suspect (or I'm simply letting my hope color my judgment) that Belarus wants to loosen its reliance on Russia. Not that its leadership is pining to be a free Western country. But it wants room to maneuver.
While Russia's placement of theater nukes in Belarus seems like an anti-Western move, I wonder if Belarus aspires to get control of the nuclear-capable missiles to deter any intervention inside Belarus. Assuming Russia has sent real nuclear warheads to Belarus, of course.
Belarus is also reaching out to China--the dominant actor in the Russia-China alignment--as that initial article notes. And Belarus adds another interesting spin to its bank shot for retaining independence:
Not even the door to Europe is completely closed. In the new strategic documents, Minsk refrains from accusing the European Union of posing a direct threat to its national security. Instead, it portrays the Europeans as victims of aggressive U.S. and British policies that it says destabilize Europe and deprive EU countries of their strategic autonomy.
Huh. Preaching to the EU choir on strengthening the EU's defense role to eject NATO--through which America and Britain contribute to European defense rather than through the EU.
The West needs to peel Belarus away from Russian dominance. Ukraine's defense problems are reduced by eliminating that flank threat. And Russia loses options to attack NATO in the Kaliningrad-to Estonia area. We saw Russia use Belarus as a road to strike south toward Kiev. We don't want Russia striking west through Belarus. Hell, Ukraine saw the threat to them coming because of that exercise. Do we think NATO is special if Putin sees opportunity?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.