Where will Putin's loving gaze fall next when the current Winter War of 2022 ends, regardless of the specifics of the outcome?
Is Kazakhstan Russia's next target?
This essay, rather than answer questions or recommend policies, instead poses a question that has not received sufficient attention and that when posed, merely generates still more questions. Is Kazakhstan, rather than another European state, Russia’s next target? This is not an idle or frivolous question, quite the contrary. Admittedly many NATO members and NATO’s senior leaders have recently warned that Russia has designs on their territory and within 3-8 years (depending on the speaker) might attack them. Those warnings are certainly well founded. Nevertheless, and although the European situation is certainly alarming and a rightful U.S. priority; we cannot, however, exclude alternative threats from Russia to other neighbors.
It might have been--before the lingering and bloody Winter War of 2022--"next".
But now, Ukraine must be finally defeated. That could--and should if the West acts responsibly in its interests--be never.
But yeah, Russia might want to take Kazakhstan before China moves in and can't be budged. I wonder if China on the clock while Russia flails in Ukraine?
Heck, are there opportunities to flip Russia in that struggle, now?
Honestly, if Putin is looking for his next war, I'd expect non-NATO Georgia to be the smaller--and fragmented--target for a rebuilt Russian army to see if this time for sure it doesn't stink up the battlefield.
NATO Estonia is lower on the list but not immune:
Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment.
My "Kargil scenario" for Narva post was timely.
But every former part of the Russian Empire will surely be addressed if Russia isn't stopped and given reason to reform into a normal country more interested in prosperity than territorial expanstion.
UPDATE: Related:
Russia has begun probing the borders of Finland and Estonia for weaknesses as it draws up what Western security chiefs suspect is a long-term plan to capture parts of the Baltic region after the war in Ukraine.
I wouldn't guess how long that gap is "after" the war in Ukraine is over. But it will be shorter if Russia is allowed to win the war.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.