Sunday, September 09, 2018

The Yemen Clusterf*ck Rolls Along

Strategypage looks at the territory we have agreed to call Yemen.

The wars drag on:

By 2017 the war in Yemen had morphed into two separate conflicts. In the northwest and along the Red Sea coast it is Iran-backed Shia rebels versus the Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia (and their local allies plus the United States). The rest of Yemen is a fight between Yemeni government (backed by the Saudi coalition) and Yemeni tribal separatists who often host AQAP factions. In the past Yemen was rarely united and that separatism divides the country between the north (where most of the Shia are) and the south (mostly Sunni Arab tribes. The current civil war is not unique, the last one was in the 1990s.

And Iran has made an effort to spin the war:

One under reported Iranian contribution to the Shia rebel effort is an effective media manipulation capability. ... The Iranians know what appeals to mass media, especially in the West, and what does not. Thus anytime a coalition airstrike kills civilians (or rebels who can be described as such) the Iranians see that pictures and stories are supplied to news media worldwide. Coverage of the nasty things the Shia rebels do to hostile civilians in areas they control is not reported because no journalists are allowed in rebel areas. Thus it is only later that it becomes known that the rebels were using civilians as human shields or letting them use a road the rebels know is constantly watched and most vehicles seen on it are hit with an air strike. ...

The Iranians will also send out stories of rebel controlled civilians going hungry when that can be blamed on the coalition, the Yemeni government or the West.

I've noted the media distortion that seemed like Iranian propaganda and that it seems as if the Saudi side is slowly winning. And that is what Strategypage thinks is happening, as the Shia rebels slowly lose ground to the well-supported Saudi side and as the Shias dig deep into the teenager "recruiting" pool to hold the line in a war that would have petered out long ago if not for the Iranian intervention and Saudi intervention on the other side.

And America continues to kill jihadis with frequent drone strikes.

So the war rolls on until a ceasefire between the Shias and Sunnis that might be called "peace" is worked out to pause the fighting until the next round--which could make our war on Sunni jihadis more effective.

UPDATE: And right across the Gulf of Aden, Somalia vies for supremacy in dysfunction if not actual death toll as the wound that will not heal:

The chaotic region called Somalia remains a black hole for aid money and good intentions.

But the potential for much worse is always there. The place should be broken up and sold for parts.