Saturday, September 29, 2018

Turning Point or Trend Blip?

I'm worried that North Korea is stalling us with diplomacy past a window of opportunity to use force to disarm their nuclear capabilities before the risk of missing is too great (for our allies if not for us). But this seems significant:

President Moon Jae-in became the first South Korean leader to give a speech to the North Korean public when he spoke at the Mass Games in Pyongyang on Wednesday evening.

In his seven-minute long speech, he said the two countries should "become one", as they were before the war.

Mr Moon is on a three-day visit to Pyongyang where he signed a landmark agreement with Kim Jong-un.

The Arirang Games are one of Pyongyang's biggest propaganda events.

Is North Korea preparing their people for peace, which would justify getting rid of nukes--perhaps arguing the pursuit of nukes worked?

Or is North Korea just taking extraordinary imagery steps (that they could reverse on a dime) to buy time to get through their window of vulnerability?

In history, it is generally a good bet to rely on past trends, because trends generally continue (that's why they are "trends")--until they don't.