Thursday, September 13, 2018

Pretext or Leverage?

Well that's interesting:

The Turkish secret service staged an operation deep in the heartland of the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad to capture and bring back to Turkey the prime suspect in a 2013 bombing, officials said Wednesday. ...

Anadolu [news agency] published a video of Nazik, dressed in a tracksuit top and jeans and standing by a Turkish flag, giving what it described as a "confession", saying he was behind the attack and it had been ordered by the Syrian regime.

That's interesting timing on the eve of Assad's offensive into rebel-held Idlib province, which Turkey desperately wants to stop.

Is this slap at Assad--and a message that Turkey's intelligence people can operate deep inside Syria--stay Assad's hand?

Would Turkey use this old incident brought to light now as an excuse to reinforce their troops inside Syria and fight the Syrian and Iranian forces that will move into Idlib?

UPDATE: Hmm:

Turkey sent in military reinforcements Thursday to beef up its positions inside Syria's last rebel bastion Idlib, activists reported, even as the Turkish defense minister said Ankara is still trying with Russia and Iran to prevent a humanitarian tragedy in the case of a threatened Syrian government offensive.

No word on how many. So it could be a bluff for some leverage to delay the Assad offensive.

UPDATE: Well, there is a deal:

Russian and Turkish troops are to enforce a new demilitarized zone in Syria's Idlib region from which "radical" rebels will be required to withdraw by the middle of next month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart.

Apparently non-jihadis will withdraw to a buffer zone along Turkey's border up to 20 kilometers deep inside Syria. Jihadis will then be in a free-fire zone in the rest of Idlib province once the withdrawal is complete, it seems.

Then the final pounding to retake the bulk of Idlib province will commence against the smaller jihadi enemy and the rest of the rebels pinned inside a security zone restrained by Turkey and Russia.

And that will pretty much end the civil war in the west. Will an insurgency be waged instead?

In perhaps related news, Turkey announced it will reinforce its troops in northern Cyprus.