The Papuans, who on paper are supposed to be independent, are getting a bit more organized to achieve that:
Papua is a large area that is thinly populated 900,000 people most of them belonging to one of the more than 300 Melanesian tribes. It is the poorest part of Indonesia, with some thirty percent of the population being extremely poor. The Papuans, who were ruled as a Dutch colony for centuries, were granted independence by the Dutch in 1961, but a year later Indonesia invaded and no one went to the aid of the Papuans. The UN called for a referendum to determine what the Papuans wanted, but Indonesia never allowed that to happen. The UN has continued to protest and pressure Indonesia, but nothing has changed, except for growing separatist violence. The government has responded by arresting and prosecuting anyone who openly demonstrates support for separatism. This has provided the incentive for more Papuans to join the non-violent and violent separatist groups.
Most Indonesians do not want Papua to be independent. In addition to lots of valuable natural resources, there's lots of unused land that can be occupied by Moslem migrants from crowded parts of the country. But that causes friction, because the native Papuans are Melanesian, who look quite different from the majority Malays. Moreover, the Melanesians tend to be Christian while the Malays are almost all Moslems. The Malays are better educated and dominate the government and police. The Malays are also very corrupt and have done little to improve the lives of native Papuans over the last half century. There are a lot of Melanesians outside of Papua, and they are increasingly subject to violence by Malay Islamic radicals.
The situation in Papua got worse in 2018 when WPNLA (West Papua National Liberation Army), one of the two armed rebel coalitions, declared the start of a new offensive. WPNLA also claimed that it had gained the allegiance of more of the many armed separatist factions in Papua and that this would enable it to wage a sustained campaign.
But the Papuans were not declared Queen of the Victims Prom. The Palestinians got that title and have blown the attention and money they have received for many decades. The Papuans could be forgiven if they've gotten bitter over that disparate treatment. Heck, I've never heard of the WPNLA.
Indonesia is friendly and is not fertile ground for Islamists, and working to suppress jihadis. So I'd certainly hope for a best-case scenario of the government working out the problems with the Papuans in some peaceful fashion.
But it strikes me that the way China is seeking to break through the island barriers of pro-American states off the coast of China by pursuing small island state allegiance that it would be a big deal if China funded the rebels and gained a bridgehead on New Guinea from a grateful free West Papua.
There is bad blood between the Chinese and Indonesians that goes way back. Might the combination of revenge and opportunity be enough to draw Chinese attention to Papua?
