Our top general in CENTCOM doesn't see non-military means stopping Iran from going nuclear:
Mattis at one point was asked point blank whether he thought diplomatic efforts and sanctions were working to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"No sir," he said.
Later, when pressed, Mattis said he fully supported economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
"I believe they are trying to buy time with the negotiations but that should not be in any way construed as 'We should not try to negotiate,'" Mattis said, noting President Barack Obama's warning that military intervention was an option if all else were to fail.
He also thinks the Israelis would and could do the job:
Sen. Lindsey Graham ... asked him whether he believed Israel would strike at Iran if the regime “reached a critical point in terms of nuclear capability.”
Responded Mattis: “The Israelis have said so; I take them at their word.”
Graham followed up by asking whether Israel would need US assistance to carry out such an attack. Said Mattis, “They could conduct a strike without our help.”
Indeed. They can't do as good a job as we could, but this is a change from the assumption that Israel could not do the job. Whether Israel has increased their ability to do the job the way we would--by either focusing available resources on fewer critical targets or by expanding their capabilities--or by thinking outside the box with methods we wouldn't bother to use but which get the job done anyway, is the question. Or is it?
And this is separate from the question of whether even an effective strike that destroys every nuclear target in Iran would do the job. Iran knows there are red lines that will prompt Israel or America to strike. The Iranians might be smart enough to figure out how to cross the red line safely.
Yes, we are buying time, as General Mattis says. But so are the Iranians. We shall see what each side has used their time to achieve.
UPDATE: Thanks to Pseudo-Polymath for the link. No worries. I hear Unicorns have been modified to carry Standard anti-missile missiles.
