Watching the Iraq Alternative Play Out

As we watch Syria--a Baathist-run, minority dictatorship who we suspect has WMD--burn in revolution, remember that some anti-war advocates here in 2002 thought that supporting a revolt against Saddam was the proper response rather than invading Iraq.

It is difficult to keep up with the latest numbers, but an estimated 80,000 have died in Syria after two years of fighting. The pace of fighting is under-estimated by noting that has taken place over two years when you recall that in the first year, casualties weren't anywhere near half that level. So the death rate is astounding.

In Iraq, we wouldn't have faced the casualties that resulted (total of about 120,000 Iraqis during our fight there) if we had been able to prevent Syria and Iran from supporting Shia death squads, al Qaeda, and Baathists who tried to ignite a sectarian civil war. The initial invasion largely spared civilians because of our precision weapons, training, and rapid victory. And the worst of the sectarian fighting promoted by Iran and Syria took place in a single year from about mid-2006 to mid-2007 when the surge broke the back of Sunni Arab resistance.

So in Syria we have the alternate model of popular revolt on display as a Baathist minority government with WMD capabilities fights the long-oppressed majority. Already in just 2 years of fighting the casualties are two-thirds of the casualties endured in 8 years of fighting in Iraq.

And al Qaeda has found a front and recruiting tool even though we aren't there to "provoke" that outcome as so many alleged about Iraq. Sadly, nobody is in Syria to break al Qaeda as we did in Iraq.

Further, we are already worrying about the sectarian conflict that might extend out decades because of the brutality and intensity of the current fighting. We even have reports of possible chemical weapons use (I'm holding off on commenting on the initial reports since they may be wrong). And of course, we worry about Assad's chemical arsenal leaking out of Syria because of the fighting.

And we worry about Syria destabilizing the region.

Is the alternate model working out as planned?

God help us, once Assad falls, we may see another alternate model play out since our administration apparently believes that "disbanding" Saddam's army and de-Baathification was a mistake in Iraq.

Let's see how the Sunnis of Syria like enduring the casualties they've endured at the hand's of Assad's thugs and then being told that they have to shake hands and work with the thugs in a new Syria where "kumbaya" (in Arabic) is required singing.