This is good news. A 29-year fight has been ended (except for die hards who will simply extend the death toll):
The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group declared a "formal and clear ceasefire" with Turkey on Saturday after the rebels' jailed leader this week ordered a halt to the decades-long armed campaign for autonomy.
"Since March 21 and from now on, we as a movement, as the PKK ... officially and clearly declare a ceasefire," said Murat Karayilan, the PKK's field commander, in a video message apparently taped at a rebel holdout in northern Iraq.
Iraqi Kurds surely understand that Turkey is hardly going to be fine with Iraqi Kurdish independence if it might reignite their own Turkish population. So Iraq's Kurds have limits to how much they can play off the central Iraqi government against the Turks.
Which is good. I'd rather the Kurds enjoy their prosperity and autonomy within a unified Iraq.
A unified Iraq is also a tougher nut for Iran to deal with. Not only have the Kurds proven to be the most effective troops in the Iraqi military, Iraq keeps the option of undermining Iranian control of their Kurdish population.
Further, since the Kurds are Sunni (although not Arab), it helps with Iraq's outreach to Sunni Arab countries to accept Iraq as one of them in opposition to Persian Iran.
Indirectly, it helps with outreach to the Sunni Arab world by denying Sunni Arabs of Iraq an excuse to secede from Iraq. Within Iraq, Iraq as a whole could benefit from Arab world acceptance of Iraq as long as the perception is that the Sunnis are treated fairly within Iraq.
And by avoiding a rump Iraq that is mostly Shia Arab, Iran's influence in Iraq is diluted.
Since this took place right after the Israeli "apology" to Turkey, I wonder if the timing was related? Could the glow of the apology be an effort to obscure the ceasefire? Or is it the reverse and the ceasefire is timed to take the attention away from Israel's apology?
The two events do seem related, after all. A Turkey that has made up with Israel and its own Kurdish population is more likely to have the inclination to cooperate against Syria and/or Iran.
I've said that I have a gut feeling that President Obama really is prepared to strike Iran to keep them from going nuclear (assuming that Iran doesn't surprise us--a big "if"). Am I too naive to believe that while President Obama may give every indication that he has a noodle for a backbone, that on this issue perhaps he has a spine?
Perhaps four years of Iran's failure to grasp his extended hand has caused our president to learn--or just be terribly offended. Maybe this is why Netanyahu was willing to appear to apologize to Turkey for the Palestinian faux-tilla incident. Sure, it is unfair. But Israel lives in the world that it has and not the world it would like to have. The issue is at least put to rest.
Heck, as long as I'm looking for dots to connect, if America, Israel, and Turkey are gathering to confront Iran, wouldn't that make this diplmomatic effort more than an exercise in futility?
Secretary of State John Kerry made an unannounced visit to Iraq on Sunday and will urge Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to make sure Iranian flights over Iraq do not carry arms and fighters to Syria, a U.S. official said.
Without us nearby, Iraq fears mullah-run Iran. That leads them to do things for Iran that we don't like. This doesn't mean Iraq is controlled by Iran or even friendly to Iran, although it is a pain. While I've focused on returning America to Iraq to resist the Iranian threat, simply removing or defanging the Iranian threat is an acceptable alternative for securing Iraq. (Russia should take notes on this part given their worry about our Europe-based missile defenses designed to stop future Iranian missiles.)
Kerry will also speak to leaders from the Kurdish and Sunni Arab communities. Which hopefully keeps them calmed down.
I keep hearing we have smart diplomacy now. Was this some of it?
UPDATE: Of course, gathering a coalition to face Iran--if that is what we are doing--might be related to a push on Syria to get Assad out. Note the president's visit to Jordan with promises of aid to cope with the refugees and note Israel leaning forward a bit more on their Syria border.
Again, just because they are dots doesn't mean that they should be connected. But you never know.
UPDATE: Without bringing up Turkish-Israeli relations, this author wonders if something is up, too. Although he wonders about Syria, I consider that a shot at Iran, too.
