Strategypage writes about the recent surge of weapons to the non-jihadi rebels in Syria, who are also keeping an eye on the post-Assad fight against the jihadis (who are the most eager fighters, which is a force multiplier even though they are only 20% of the rebels):
But first the Assad government must be destroyed and the plan appears to be centered on Damascus. There are about two thousand armed rebels fighting in the outskirts of Damascus, slowly extending their control towards the well-defended city center. The city center includes major government buildings, the commercial districts, major universities and hospitals plus residential neighborhoods of government supporters. The increased arms supply includes more effective anti-tank rockets and additional mortars (that give the rebels artillery support). More shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles are getting in as well. The Americans and Turks have been training rebel gunmen and leaders. The latter is particularly important because these men are taught how to more effectively use their fighters in combat.
Just two thousand rebels seems like a small amount. But since these full-time fighters are probably 10 percent of the total rebels likely involved (if this rebellion is like others, the vast majority are part-timers providing logistics, replacements, and intelligence), this is probably like a 20,000-man assault. That is more like a four- or five-brigade force--or a reinforced division--if it was a conventional army unit of that size.
Or think of it this way: A conventionally organized brigade of infantry would have perhaps three battalions of infantry. That's 9 companies of infantry. That's 27 platoons. Each platoon would have about 30 shooters in three squads of ten infantry each. So a brigade of 3-5,000 men would have 810 fighters at the tip of the spear.
Of course, for a conventional unit you would add in supporting armor, artillery, scouts, command-and-control, and logistics to make a unit very effective in support of those 810 fighters. And units could have bigger platoons, of course, plus heavy weapons support platoons. So this is just a notional comparison with a simple model of a brigade. But it illustrates the point. By this reckoning, the rebels have perhaps 2-1/2 brigades in the fight for Damascus.
A two-thousand man conventional infantry unit (smaller than one of our infantry brigade combat teams with 8 companies in two infantry battalions), which would have only a small percentage of infantry in it, would have no chance of taking a well-defended Damascus. But 2,000 rebel fighters are just the small percentage of rebels representing the direct shooters. They might do it, depending on the morale of the defenders.
