This writer (tip to Instapundit) warns that Iran could go nuclear very quickly if they buy rather than build a nuclear weapon:
The West has tried to stop Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapons by diplomacy, sanctions and cybersabotage, and with the threat of military action if Tehran crosses red lines in moving toward the final stages of making a bomb. If Iran becomes discouraged in its efforts, an easier and more immediately dangerous option is available: buying nuclear weapons from North Korea.
Well, yes. But I think it is wrong to assume that Iran would only go the nuclear purchase route if they become discouraged. Because Iran knows that crossing red lines for building nuclear weapons could prompt an attack on their nuclear facilities, I think the purchase route is a perfect complement to the build option:
The problem from Iran's point of view is that they can't know if crossing one of these lines could trigger an American or Israeli preemptive strike out of fear that further delay in attacking would be too late to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. And if I was an Iranian nutball, I wouldn't assume the Americans and Israelis couldn't knock out my infrastructure.
Were I an Iranian nutball, under those circumstances, I'd want at least a few atomic warhead on hand before I announce capabilities to produce atomic weapons-grade material. Which would mean I'd have had to have bought some from either North Korea or Pakistan--or possibly even from some broke custodian of Russia's arsenal.
If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?
Just what did that Iranian warship do in the Pacific, anyway?
And of course Iran would want to minimize the damage we could do by attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure by dispersing backup facilities abroad.
Personally, I think we'll be surprised when Iran goes nuclear. I'm just hoping the Obama Option (with a bonus Nobel Peace Prize as a shield) is a reality.
