Thursday, August 16, 2012

South China Sea "Issues"

China's position on the South China Sea is we want it all--well not really all; you're big meanies for pointing our position out; and it's America's fault, anyway. It's like a teenager with their own nukes and navy.

Check it out. After asserting that the South China Sea is there territory and always has been, citing the "nine-dash line" as their claim, the Chinese defend themselves by saying it really isn't all of the South China Sea that is Chinese territory:

China does not want to control all of the South China Sea, says Wu Shicun, the president of a government-sponsored research institute here devoted to that strategic waterway, whose seabed is believed to be rich in oil and natural gas. It wants only 80 percent.

See? How reasonable of them!

But China doesn't like being blamed for sowing discord among the other claimants:

China is denying that it is attempting to create discord within the ASEAN regional bloc in an attempt to exert more influence in disputed areas of the energy-rich South China Sea.

Some observers say Beijing does not want the 10-member Southeast Asian grouping to unify on the matter because China would rather deal with its much weaker rival claimants separately.

Besides, it's really America's fault that they aren't getting along and going along with China's claims:

But an article in China's official Xinhua news agency dismissed the allegations, calling them Western attempts to stoke "mistrust and enmity between China and its close neighbors."

And really, it's much ado about nothing. If only you ASEAN nations would just talk with China individually and cut deals with Peking, you'd see how reasonable China can be:

China was also willing “on the basis of consensus to work toward the eventual adoption of the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea,” Yang said. China has yet to sign that document, an advanced framework for peacefully resolving disputes in the South China Sea.

Four Asean members—Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines—plus China and Taiwan claim all or part of the South China Sea, which is rich in fishing, has some of the world’s busiest sea lanes and is believed to have vast energy deposits.

China has long said it wants to handle disputes over its claims bilaterally, while the other claimants have tried to raise the issue in international forums. Yang did not raise those differences in his remarks on Friday.

And see how vindictive China can be if you cross them--so cut a deal at the expense of the other claimants and maybe you can have some scraps.

See? China is totally willing to have a code--if we all agree. Of course, until that happy day, China continues to insist the region is really their territory and negotiations are about others accepting Chinese claims. So what China will agree to is a mystery.

Meanwhile, the other claimants seem in no mood to assume China owns everything (or 80%--for now) and that consensus must start from that common position:

The territorial disputes involve nearly a dozen countries in at least three major seas, and they have set off a chaotic crisscross of conflict in some of the world’s most trafficked shipping lanes. The disputes are not all connected, but analysts say that several of Asia’s key countries — China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines — have in recent months followed a similar pattern, turning old historical squabbles into national priorities, escalating tensions and raising the chances of a small-scale armed conflict.

These countries are more than happy to have us pivot to the Pacific as a counter-weight to China.

But we have no interest in fighting for who owns the islands as long as ownership of the islands doesn't lead to closing off the South China Sea to our Navy or merchant ship traffic with expansive Chinese interpretations of economic zone powers. We don't accept the South China Sea is anybody's territorial water.

But the way China is behaving, the other claimants have every motivation to stake their claims now and defend them with dug-in ground garrisons and nearby air and naval forces before China takes them over. The key is to make taking the islands hard enough to have an impact on world opinion. If China takes an island overnight with a couple casualties, the world ignores it. If, after a week of fighting, there are images of dead defenders who are still holding out, and burning Chinese ships adrift around the island, the world starts to notice and care about what China is doing.

For all that China complains about us, we have interests only in keeping the South China Sea open for free movement of ships as an international waterway and in giving our friends and allies a chance to freely come to terms with China about dividing up the islands and sharing natural resources.

If China just wants it all and doesn't want us to notice that claim, they are in for disappointment. They need serious therapy.

UPDATE: We continue to back collective negotiations to prevent China from dividing and conquering the other claimants to the South China Sea:

China should not use bilateral talks to attempt to "divide and conquer" nations with competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, the United States said Tuesday.

If the states with claims don't garrison their bits of land while holding out the option of talks for final status, "dividing and conquering" won't be just a diplomatic tactic for China. As China's capabilities increase, they'll use the military option more readily.