The Syrian rebels seem to have carved out a fragile safe zone along the Turkish border:
In recent months, Syria's rebels have extended control over a large swath of territory in the northeastern [NOTE: northwestern] corner of the country after forcing the army from town after town in a string of bloody street battles.
As a result, for the first time in Syria's 17-month conflict, rebels have a cohesive enclave in which they can move and organize with unprecedented freedom, plus a long stretch of the border with Turkey key for moving out refugees and smuggling in weapons. They also have one official, working border crossing.
The area extends about 50 kilometers (30 miles) south of the Turkish border and from the edge of Idlib province in the west to the cities of al-Bab and Manbaj some 130 kilometers (80 miles) east. Its southern edges reach the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria's largest city and for weeks the scene of heavy battles as regime forces try to uproot rebels who have taken control of several neighborhoods.
The Syrian army may soon lack the ability to move into this remote area (it is outside even my idea of a Core Syria encompassing half the Syrian population) and reassert control.
With the rebels making gains, we may feel the need to help the rebels lest they win without our over help:
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said after meeting her Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu in Istanbul that Washington and Ankara should develop detailed operational planning on ways to assist the rebels fighting to topple Assad.
"Our intelligence services, our military have very important responsibilities and roles to play so we are going to be setting up a working group to do exactly that," she said.
Asked about options such as imposing a no-fly zone over rebel-held territory, Clinton said these were possibilities she and Davutoglu had agreed "need greater in-depth analysis", while indicating that no decisions were necessarily imminent.
That seems to be the working theory in the West:
Germany's spy chief said the Syrian army had been depleted by casualties, deserters and defectors.
"There are a lot of indications that the end game for the regime has begun," said Gerhard Schindler, head of the BND intelligence agency, in an interview with Die Welt newspaper.
"The regular army is being confronted by a variety of flexible fighters. The recipe of their success is their guerrilla tactics. They're breaking the army's back."
So the Syrian rebels are wearing out the Syrian army.
As an aside, remember that our Army and Marine Corps defeated guerrilla tactics. Like I've said, the Syrian army just isn't that good.
But as the Syrian army erodes and the Assad regime considers doing something drastic to change the course of events, we are worrying about worst cases:
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Turkey's foreign minister said Saturday that their countries are creating a formal structure to plan for worst-case scenarios in Syria, including a possible chemical weapons attack on regime opponents.
Of course, plans to move in and secure chemical weapons depots could be used for moving troops in generally.
Still, let's not forget that the real worst case scenario would have been Assad winning the war against his people and remaining a tool of Syria and ally of Russia.
Fortunately the Syrian resistance managed to get to this stage on their own.
UPDATE: Whoa. Assad even lost the tyrant-friendly OIC:
Foreign ministers at a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) agreed on Monday to suspend Syria from the international body, an OIC source said, further isolating President Bashar al-Assad.
Iran remains firmly in Assad's corner.
Russia seems shaky but is it just for show? Or is Russia backing Assad despite trying to position themselves in case they need to suck up to the rebels?
And what is China's game? Are they still in Assad's corner or are they assuming Assad is toast?
