Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Assad Must Be Desperate

The risk of defecting pilots, the difficulty of maintaining aircraft, the availability of artillery assets, and the risk of provoking a Western no-fly zone were all reasons I thought Assad wouldn't risk his air force in the fight. But he is committing his planes to battle:

Its forces stretched thin on multiple fronts, President Bashar Assad's regime has significantly increased its use of air power against Syrian rebels in recent weeks, causing a spike in civilian casualties.

The aircraft have been lower tech trainers fitted with weapons, which eases the maintenance hurdle.

But if Assad can't keep his ground forces creaking along, he certainly can't maintain an aerial tempo for long. This will be another resource that he depletes. Perhaps Assad thinks he can't use this weapon long enough to provoke a Western no-fly zone so it is simply a free asset to take some pressure off his worn out ground forces.

Ultimately, if Assad wants to keep using his air power, he will need Russian support to keep the West from imposing a no-fly zone; and he will need Russian help to keep the planes flying. That could mean sending in contractor pilots and maintenance personnel in addition to arms, and target information from satellites and intelligence.

Is Russia all-in for Assad?