The support for the insurgents comes amid a broader Turkish campaign to undermine Mr. Assad’s government. Turkey is expected to impose sanctions soon on Syria, and it has deepened its support for an umbrella political opposition group known as the Syrian National Council, which announced its formation in Istanbul. But its harboring of leaders in the Free Syrian Army, a militia composed of defectors from the Syrian armed forces, may be its most striking challenge so far to Damascus.
On Wednesday, the group, living in a heavily guarded refugee camp in Turkey, claimed responsibility for killing nine Syrian soldiers, including one uniformed officer, in an attack in restive central Syria.
They are only 60 or 70 strong sheltering under Turkish protection, so they aren't about to lead a revolt that marches on Damascus. Although they claim to lead over 10,000 fighters inside Syria.
But their mere existence--regardless of their number or how many they really lead--provides a group that can provide a pretext for armed Turkish intervention if the Free Syria Army asks Turkey to establish humanitarian safety zone enclaves along the border.
Or, I suppose the Turks could march all the way to Damascus. I guess it depends on whether they think they need to do this fast or can risk a partial intervention that allows internal opposition to eventually overthrow the Assad regime.
I'm generally a bandaid off fast kind of guy. If Turkey stretches this out, they give Assad time to point missiles with chemical weapons north instead of at Israel. If Assad fears that enclaves could eventually snowball into liberated territory that threatens his rule, he may also thinks that chemical weapons aimed at those enclaves will kill Turks and rebels--and force Turkey to retreat.
Fear of the future and time to think is a dangerous combination. How will Turkey play this?
UPDATE: The Arab League seems mighty jumpy over a mere 40 added to the existing death toll:
Arab ministers said on Friday they had sent an urgent message to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, calling on him to end seven months of violence against civilians following the killing of 40 pro-democracy demonstrators by Syrian forces.
I wonder if the Turks mentioned anything to the Arab League?
UPDATE: Assad promises that Western military intervention "would burn the whole region."
Is Assad thinking of escalating by using his air force to prop up what must be his increasingly stretched and tired loyal ground security forces? At some point, he has to worry not only that his army will break before the protesters (and increasingly an armed resistance), but that Turkey will edge to intervention before Assad can crush the opposition and go a week without shooting his own people to dull Ankara's momentum towards regime change in Damascus.
