Saudi Arabia is facing a nightmare scenario in the Persian Gulf. By the end of the year, the United States is scheduled to complete its troop withdrawal from Iraq, and whatever troop presence the United States tries to keep in Iraq past the deadline will not be enough to convince anyone, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, that the United States will be able to prevent Iran from emerging as the dominant force in the Persian Gulf region.
It seems like only yesterday that the charge (admittedly, I can't say it was a charge by Stratfor) was that our troop commitment to Iraq (and Afghanistan) prevented us from acting against Iran rather than representing a looming threat on two fronts with large numbers of American combat forces surrounding Iran.
Now, with troops leaving Iraq, we are ceding the Persian Gulf to the Iranians. This is nonsense. While I agree that retaining a significant ground force in Iraq (as part of 25,000 troops that I'd like to see left in Iraq--which won't happen) would enhance our presence mightily, we were not without influence when our presence was at sea and had to be moved into the region. Our naval and air power alone would savage Iranian military and economic assets if sent against the Iranians. And we could get a significant ground force in place fairly quickly.
Stratfor's point about America is plain wrong:
The United States doesn't have the resources to devote to blocking Iran in Iraq, or engaging in military action against Iran. In today's fragile global economic environment, the Iranian retaliatory option of mining and attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's seaborne trade passes through each day, remains a potent deterrent.
We have the resources to resist Iran. Even without troops in Iraq. We're a super power. Remember? They're Iran under sanctions, for Pete's sake. The question is whether we have the determination to block Iran in Iraq and the Gulf. We did hold the Strait of Hormuz open in 1987-1988 against Iran's attempts to stop pro-Iraqi shipping (during the Tanker War) portion of the Iran-Iraq War. Iran needed to export oil then and the need is no less now. Iran would face a huge decision to try to cut off the Strait of Hormuz. Would they be sure this was their moment of total victory and total effort? Who makes that call?
Since we've had 25 years to ponder this problem, I'd hope that oil reserves in public and private hands could provide a cushion until Saudi Arabia and others could expand production. And if anything could get the Europeans to work with us against Iran, a threat to Europe's oil supplies from the Gulf would do it. Recall that we led quite the Western naval armada into the Persian Gulf a quarter century ago when Iran threatened the oil flow.
We can stop Iran. The question is whether we let them strike when they are ready. We'll win even if Iran strikes when they are ready. The question is how high a price we will pay to win.
