Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Vanguard of the Invasion?

Lebanon's army has moved into the Baalbek region where Hezbollah's rear area for both confronting Israel and fighting in Syria is located. Will Israel take advantage of that?

Hezbollah can't be too happy with the Lebanese army moving into "their" territory:

The Lebanese army deployed into lawless areas of the northern Bekaa Valley over the weekend, shutting down unofficial checkpoints and pursuing car thieves and kidnappers as part of a broader national security plan to mitigate the damage being done by spillover from the civil war in neighboring Syria.

The security plan was devised by the newly-formed Lebanese government in response to the latest outbreak of fighting in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city, between the impoverished neighborhoods of Bab Tebbaneh and Jabal Mohsen whose Sunni and Alawite residents respectively support opposing sides in Syria. Two weeks of fighting in March killed at least 30 people.

The Lebanese army is being bolstered by France, as France and Saudi Arabia cooperate on defeating Assad. So I don't think this army operation is a mere coincidence.

And I think the Baalbek region would be the final stop of an Israeli invasion--should that be carried out--to root out Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and end the rocket threat that Israel's Iron Dome defenses cannot cope with on their own (too many Hezbollah rockets coming in and too few Israeli anti-missiles to intercept them); harm Assad's chances of defeating the rebellion (by cutting off the supply of Hezbollah shock troops); and weaken Iran's ability to threaten Israel via Syria and Israel.

So if something happens, I won't be shocked if Israel moves fast and deep.