I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.
Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Business Before Pleasure
In case you missed it on Substack: The Iraq War
In case you missed it on Substack: The Rumors of Maneuver's Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
In case you missed it on Substack: The Good Neighbor Policy 2.0
Consider that the Truman carrier strike group was in an active front that would have been given priority for deploying. Yet there were problems during its deployment.
Right now the Greenland Kerfuffle with NATO is posturing by all sides—about invading and the end of NATO. Negotiations will resolve this. In part, because I assume invading absent an imminent Chinese or Russian threat would result in bipartisan impeachment and conviction.
Huh: “China recorded its lowest birth rate on record in 2025, the statistics office in Beijing reported on Monday.” Honestly, we don’t even know what China’s population is right now.
The idea that America would invade Greenland is ridiculous. Especially when you consider there are tens of thousands of American support troops across Europe who would be taken prisoner rapidly if America goes to war with NATO. FFS, people. Breathe.
Huh: “Takaichi is likely to hold a news conference later on Monday to announce her intention to dissolve parliament and call a snap election in February, capitalising on her administration's strong approval ratings.”
Israel is massing forces in reaction to Hezbollah rebuilding. I try to learn from reality. But I was premature in admitting error about my long-held belief that destroying Hezbollah requires a ground drive into the Bekaa Valley.
Did Saudi Arabia flex its power or is “disbanding” a fig leaf? “Yemeni politicians met Sunday in Saudi Arabia’s capital in their first public gathering since a southern separatist group backed by the United Arab Emirates was disbanded following weeks of clashes.”
If Israel slowed an American strike on Iran’s mullah regime, Israel is now ready to cope with Iranian acts: “As regional tensions rise, the IDF reassures the Israeli public that it is fully prepared for any scenario, urging reliance on official channels for updates.”
“It’s a joke”: “Army Secretary Dan Driscoll told soldiers during a town hall at Fort Drum, New York, this week that the Dronebuster — a handheld jammer designed to zap unmanned aerial systems out of the sky — is ‘fucking terrible’ in his experience.”
Coastal defense offense: “The U.S. Army is massively revving up its hypersonic weapons capability in the Pacific to enable U.S. forces to strike targets traveling at Mach 5 for ranges of roughly 1,700 miles.”
The Defiant-class BBG (a.k.a. Trump class) will spread hypersonic missiles throughout the fleet? I have my doubts about the volume of ships expected.
Well, the Navy has been confident about a lot of its failed ship plans: “The Navy is confident that it can put its new FF(X) frigate in the water by 2028, senior service officials said Jan. 15.”
GAO: “The Navy doesn’t have a clear plan for replacing the capabilities of an aging destroyer used to test the effectiveness of ship defense systems[.]” I didn’t even know about that ship.
Hmm: “A retired UK rear admiral, Philip Mathias, argues the UK share of AUKUS is at serious risk of collapse because Britain lacks enough skilled people to build and sustain nuclear submarines.”
Mutually useful: “The U.S. and Japan have pledged to further expand joint training across Japan’s southwest region, including the first island chain[.]”
Fulfilling a 2024 agreement: “U.S. forces have fully withdrawn from an air base in western Iraq in implementation of an agreement with the Iraqi government, Iraqi officials said Saturday.” The last time Iraq told us to pull our troops out, ISIL overran large chunks of Iraq.
Could a compact of free association between America and Greenland work? If Denmark and Greenland residents agree, of course.
Yeah, I’m also unclear about why Trump is being so aggressive toward European states in the Greenland Kerfuffle. I assume this is more pressure that will ultimately be withdrawn. But why be so verbally aggressive?
Yeah: “Truly, there is no more perfect union than the one between President Trump and the news media. They live for each other.” This panic may be a modern version of Yellow Journalism before the Spanish-American War. Breathe, people. I hope the alleged panic is mostly social media bots.
Cuba’s rulers will have some ‘splaining to do” without Venezuela’s free oil.
Interesting part of Putin’s regime threatens to get wobbly—again.
A destroyer and an oceanographic survey ship: “A pair of U.S. naval vessels carried out Washington’s first reported Taiwan Strait transit of 2026, according to Chinese and U.S. officials.”
Firing an air-to-ground missile from a vertical launch system on a ground vehicle.
Here we go: “The U.S. Supreme Court could rule on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are illegal[.]” I assumed huge tariffs were tools to get trade deals; and I hoped for success before the power was rightly struck down.
Britain retreats from east of Suez—again? “The Royal Navy is to turn its back on the Middle East as its last remaining ship in the region sails home.” For good?
Will the EU invoke its economic “Article 5” to fight American tariffs? Macron raised the possibility. The EU has ulterior motives. And Macron’s support for that is also self-serving. Of course, knowing that threat will be soon struck down by the Supreme Court is clarifying all around, no?
If you need a rifle on your yacht, don’t sail to Russia. He was going to meet a Russian “woman” he met online. Now we have to exchange an actual Russian spy for that idiot?
Sigh: “The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capitulated to the Syrian government in a ceasefire agreement on January 18.” Throwing victims to the jihadis won’t create tame Islamists.
Iran’s mullah regime is pretending to be willing to moderate its behavior to hold off American military power. Did the regime slaughter enough Iranians for this to seem like a good pretend deal to America?
I’m assuming more rhetorical pressure like this indicates that peak pressure is about to arrive before a Greenland deal is struck. It will be called TACO by his political foes, but it will be the plan. Hoping. Assuming. Whatever.
Huh: “US aviation authorities issued notices Friday warning airlines to ‘exercise caution’ in the airspace over Mexico and Central America due to ‘military activities.’”
1500 troops from the Army’s 11th Airborne Division in Alaska were alerted for possible movement to Fort Sumter Minneapolis.
Mowing the grass: “Nigerian air force strikes destroyed about 10 canoes and killed more than 40 militants preparing attacks in Borno state, the military said late on Sunday[.]”
Canada’s closer trade ties with China risk making them China’s 24th province. Or maybe just the 6th autonomous region.
China mocks the Trump-class (Defiant) battleship is an “easier target”. I agree. But as time goes on, will China try to keep up with the Joneses for status?
I didn’t link this the first time, assuming it was old news: “U.S. forces on Friday killed a terror leader in Syria who officials say had ties to the ISIS insurgent who carried out a Dec. 13 ambush there that killed two Iowa National Guardsmen and one U.S. civilian[.]”
Navy and Air Force assets are moving toward Iran. I’m more interested in the SSGNs we don’t see moving.
Trump offered to move Putin from the children’s table to the big boy Gaza Board of Peace. If Russia doesn’t end its war on Ukraine and recognize China as Russia’s foe, I assume his board duties will be providing refreshments and a light snack.
Well that’s boring: “Major airfield upgrades are in the works for the U.S. military’s base in Greenland even as a diplomatic crisis between the United States and NATO allies in Europe ratchets up …”
Some “analysts” are too narrowly focused. Nobody ever said solving one problem ends all problems. I’d rather cope with nuclear proliferation issues of a post-mullah Iran than let nutball mullahs get nuclear missiles.
Strategypage on the national security strategy: “The United States wants its allies, particularly the ones in Europe, to make more of an effort to defend themselves.” This is an understatement: “the President's unique deal-making skills…” You can read my take on the 2025 NSS here.
I didn’t understand why he was fine with it: “President Trump has called the U.K.'s decision to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius — a deal his administration previously supported — an act of ‘great stupidity’[.]” Hard to argue with him now.
An updated CRS report to Congress on the “Trump” BBG(X). My thoughts.
For Kuwait or Jordan? The U.S. moved 278th ACR regiment Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles to CENTCOM. I hope they have drone defenses.
Linking a Greenland deal to helping Ukraine? Ukraine is killing more Russian troops than ever, at a better kill ratio. Ukraine’s problem isn’t lack of American aid (America still supports Ukraine), it’s lack of Ukrainian troops. Unless Ukraine is holding back units in reserve …
Hmm: “Senior leaders of the Hamas terror group are preparing a ‘safe exit’ from the Gaza Strip[.]” I assume they believe loyal subordinates will keep their seats warm in their absence.
Are America and China both fragile powers with internal divisions and debt that will cripple them? That’s a fair point. But who could replace either in the pecking order? Also, I think America is better able to adapt.
Internal security operations by ICE are “chaotic” in states that refuse to hold and turn over violent criminal aliens and that encourage “resistance” to law enforcement. Tip to Instapundit.
Could the Marine Corps deploy quickly to fight in a Korean War II that suddenly erupts—again? I think the ROK ground forces can handle another ground war. I worry about Marine offensive action to really hurt the PLAN.
The Orange Scare. Breathe, people.
A faux crisis: “Donald Trump’s voracious appetite for Greenland is breathing new life into the idea of Europe setting up the equivalent of the U.N. Security Council — a forum for top leaders to act swiftly in times of crisis.” So naturally the EU exploits the “crisis”.
China’s seven crises coming up in 2026.
What’s up with China’s Tehran Airlift?
More about Ukraine’s UUV attack on a Russian sub in a Black Sea port: “Ukrainian naval drones have revolutionized naval warfare that takes place within a few hundred kilometers of a coastline.” I respectfully disagree.
It is quiet and has a low thermal signature: “Ukraine has sent a hybrid hydrogen-powered drone into combat for the very first time.” The need to defeat counter-measures increases the drone’s price, I imagine.
As long as it is simple to operate the new Army tank, cool.
Well that’s boring: “NORAD confirmed that multiple aircraft are deploying to Pituffik Space Base in Greenland to support pre-planned operations coordinated with Denmark and Greenland.”
The SOP storm before the calm: “President Trump predicted that both the U.S. and NATO will be satisfied with a deal on the future of Greenland ahead of meetings with European leaders in Davos.”
Part II of Naval News’ review of the PLAN in 2025. With a link to Part I that I missed. Part I looks at the surface fleet. It is bigger and badder. I assume U.S. Navy training and command and control is superior. But I hope we can accurately assess that rather than assume it.
Americans who claim any American help for those resisting tyrants will “taint” the resistance and cause all Iranians to “rally around the tyrant’s flag” sure are eager to get foreign help against their domestic enemy.
No one wants a war with China over Taiwan—but America must prepare for one. In the short run, yes. But better yet, divert China’s attention inland.
Maybe, but AI is just the distillation of conventional wisdom available on the Internet: “Heritage Foundation researchers harnessed the power of artificial intelligence to argue in a new report that the U.S. is not prepared for a war with China.” But it may be useful nonetheless.
Good Lord, that’s still a tiny Army: “the Army will grow to 454,000, up 11,700 from last year[.]” Other active service levels—except the Marines—will grow, too; and reserve forces take a small hit, with increases and decreases across the services. If enacted, of course.
I’ve heard that mullah claims that 500 Iranian security troops have been killed relies on counting protesters as security troops in order to make this look more like a war than mass murder.
I have concerns about punishing a retired military officer who is a member of Congress; but claiming this will mute other retired officers ignores that the UCMJ places limits on the speech of active military members and retired officers.
Britain begins test firing the new 120mm smoothbore cannon on the Challenger 3 tank. Not that the British Army will get many.
Russia warns Britain not to intercept its shadow fleet tankers smuggling oil.
Canada’s best defenses are size, cold, and complete American disinterest in conquering Canada. But sure: “Canada’s military has modeled how it would respond to an American invasion[.]” Now do the far north.
I wonder if Trump would be as concerned about American use of Greenland for defending America (and other allies and friends) if not for Britain’s bizarre determination to shoot itself and America in the foot over Diego Garcia.
Well that’s boring: “President Donald Trump insisted he wants to ‘get Greenland, including right, title and ownership,’ but said he wouldn’t employ force to achieve that[.]”
The murders will continue until faith in Allah improves: “Gunfire echoed through Tehran Tuesday as heavily armed militias were deployed across the Iranian capital, transforming some districts into fortified zones under intense security.”
Yeah, Syria’s Kurds are being thrown under the bus. This will have collateral damage in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are frenemies at best. Is an alliance between these rivals for regional dominance a case of wanting the others peeing outside from inside the tent rather than vice versa?
Oh? “Greenland Won’t Break NATO, But It Could Make Article 5 Feel Conditional[.]” Article V has always been conditional. It only seemed unconditional in the Cold War because many NATO armies lined up on the border with East Germany.
Please restore you pucker factor to its fully upright position and prepare for a hard landing.
People could have listened to me instead of consuming Greenland Invasion Porn: “Trump said he had agreed with the head of NATO on a ‘framework of a future deal’ on Arctic security, potentially defusing tension that had far-reaching geopolitical implications.” And tariffs canceled.
It’s all effed up in Russia. But that situation is normal there. So Russia still endures.
How boring: “Thousands of U.S. Marines are deploying to Norway this month to begin training for a NATO military exercise as President Donald Trump’s push to control Greenland continues to unsettle European leaders.”
Better speed that up: “The U.S. military said Wednesday it began transferring detainees from the Islamic State group who were held in northeastern Syria to Iraq to ensure they remain in secure facilities.”
Calling BS on this one: “The Catholic archbishop responsible for U.S. military personnel said it is ‘morally acceptable’ for service members to disobey an order if it is against their own conscience[.]” If you enlisted, your conscience is fine with obeying lawful orders.
Zumwalt set sail with hypersonic missile launchers installed.
Reaction: “Trophy active protection systems will be integrated on the Leopard 2 A8 main battle tanks of Lithuania, the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Croatia[.]”
An American F-15 squadron with experience shooting down drones is back in the Middle East.
This assumes China captured the islands: “The U.S. Marine Corps and Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s (JGSDF) bilateral exercise ‘Iron Fist 26’ will see approximately 1,550 troops carry out amphibious landings, air assaults and more across Japan’s southwest region next month.”
The U.S. Navy’s Military Sealift Command 2025 in Review. All I really know is that it is too old and too small.
Okay: “Trump meets Zelensky as US envoy says ending war with Russia down to one issue[.]” Unfortunately, the one issue is engineering how Russia can pull its head out of its Putin.
Air-droppable supply trucks for mobile brigade combat teams—including in Arctic operations. I have issues with the mobile brigade combat team.
The Abraham Lincoln strike group ordered to CENTCOM has Marine F-35Cs.
Is the Board of Peace for Gaza a tool to “pretty much” do what we want to do? Or is it a Trojan Horse for allies of Hamas to revive the terror organization?
The Kurdish-led SDF may fracture over joining jihadi-ruled Syria.
People think America doesn’t help Ukraine resist Russia: “The United States seized another oil tanker involved with shipping sanctioned Russian oil off the coast of Venezuela.” Add in secondary sanctions, weapons sales, and intelligence.
Apparently, the UAE was hammered in Yemen. And has suffered setbacks in Somalia, Sudan, and Libya. This is a reminder to me to look for information on the UAE’s shaky proxy empire to keep an eye on its oil export routes through the Red Sea.
Greenland is primarily needed for defenses against hypersonic missile and FOBS attacks—not minerals. Normally not a fan, but he may be right. Via Instapundit.
It is interesting that frontline Ukrainian troops are aware of “peace” negotiations—not that they have views on them. On the eve of going on an intense FTX, I heard a coup started in the USSR. Hello nuclear pucker factor. I didn’t hear the outcome for days. No more view through a straw?
Perhaps the crew could just launch the poo off the ship with EMALS.
How boring: “Major defense projects involving the United States, Canada, and Norway remain on track in spite of strained relations with traditional allies following the Trump administration’s push for Greenland.”
No rally ‘round the flag effect in Venezuela.
First Armored division remembers the Americans who died winning the hard Second Battle of Fallujah twenty years ago. They created a lot of good jihadis.
In World War II, widespread knowledge of vehicle engines was invaluable. Now: “The Georgia Army National Guard successfully launched a new program this month that aims to transform troops across the state into skilled drone pilots.”
Allies helped, too: “France says it has seized an oil tanker in the Mediterranean suspected of being part of Russia's sanction-busting ‘shadow fleet’.”
Shed some light on China’s subliminal war in the South China Sea: “The Philippine military is slated to receive surveillance aircraft and additional maintenance support from Washington through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program,[.]”
I’ve heard that the mullah’s security forces have murdered thousands—if not tens of thousands—of Iranians. Don’t know much is RUMINT.
The Army will buy more M109A7 Paladin self-propelled howitzers and ammo resupply vehicles.
In for a penny, in for a pound? My related thoughts on a Navy battleship.
Gotta admit, I too don’t seen the purported value of an Arctic Sea trade route.
Sh*t got real: “The United States has quietly started repositioning high-value [Patriot and THAAD] air defense missile systems and naval assets to the Middle East[.]” The first line of defense will be lots of cruise missiles hitting Iranian missile-launch sites.
I would never say the Russians aren’t big enough bastards to do this. I’ll just say no convincing evidence has been offered over the decades for rounding up the usual suspect. Has that changed?
My worry about the Board of Peace is narrow. Some are panicking over broader issues. I’m just impressed Trump invited Putin and Lukashenko. Better to have them inside the tent pissing out, eh? Elevating Lukashenko to parity with Putin resists Putin’s Anschluss with Belarus.
Can ill-trained leaders exploit good plans? “[Russia is] seeking to use artificial intelligence [for tactical-level situational awareness] to compensate for the low level of junior officer training and initiative in the Russian military, among other things.”
Venezuela and Greenland and Congo. Oh my!
Jihadis get oil: “Syria’s new leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has forced the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces/SDF o ut of the area and is regaining control over the oil fields and natural gas extraction facilities in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Raqqah provinces.” Oil won’t tame them.
China’s priorities: “In late 2024 China stopped selling drones and drone components to Ukraine. … Eventually China relented and resumed shipments. It was either that or see the non-Chinese drone manufacturers grow even more competitive.”
Huh: “Additional US and international funding has been committed to Lot 5 and Lot 6 of the Tomahawk modernisation programme[.]”
In the debate over Trump’s sphere of influence strategy, it is easy to overlook it is no such thing. Yeah, I see the strategy as global—but less reliant on sustaining the system with American ground troops. Well, we want a sphere. But enemies vote, too.
Britain has slowed its rush to give away the Chagos Islands and risk the critical Diego Garcia base.
The West has abandoned the Kurds. Again. Hey, it’s not like they are the Queen of the Victims Prom! So no outrage from the Sainted International Community.®
If China wrests control of the seas from America, it won’t be for lack of American commissions! “This moment demands a fundamental rethink of US maritime strategy, the fleets that support it, and the industrial base that underwrites military power.”
Fingers crossed: “The United States threatened to limit the Iraqi federal government’s access to its oil revenue as part of a broader US effort to curb Iranian influence within the Iraqi government.”
Hmmm: “The PLA flew a surveillance drone through Taiwanese airspace over Pratas (Dongsha) Island on January 17, possibly the first confirmed PLA violation of Taiwan’s territorial airspace in decades.” Pratas, eh?
Russia recruits cannon fodder abroad.
China adopts wargames: “The Chinese now use their wargames in much the same way Western armies do. A lot of wargaming is just to train staffs and commanders to work together while at lower tactical levels officers and troops learn tactics and what to avoid in combat.”
LOL: “EU leaders reckon Donald Trump’s about-turn on Greenland happened because they stuck together.” There was ZERO chance Trump was going to invade Greenland. But the EU has incentive to pretend it was a crisis it won.
Mali’s jihadi problem now extends to fuel shortages.
RUMINT says Iran is stockpiling bodies of those it murdered to display after an American bombing campaign. Recall that Saddam Hussein prior to the 2003 war would save up corpses for dead baby parades and blame Western sanctions for them.
If America strikes Iran, I wonder what percentage of the strike missions have to be directed at Iranian air, naval, and missile assets that can threaten American units and our allies rather than hitting pillars of internal security?
