Russia's caviar imperial dreams can't be backed up by their borsch budget.
The war goes on. Ukrainian civilians shiver in the dark and Russian troops die in huge numbers so Putin can claim glorious advances. Peace talks continue. Putin still insists with the confidence he had in February 2022 that he must have total victory.
Putin's big talk doesn't really match what his ground forces have achieved thus far:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. ...
The Kremlin continues to forward the false narrative that Ukraine’s defenses are on the verge of collapse, but data on Russian gains since the start of the full-scale invasion demonstrates otherwise.
Big talk! You and what army? That graph sure looks a lot like a stalemate to me. And since Russia invaded and has the strategic initiative, that's more of a problem for Russia given its stated goal of conquering Ukraine and gelding NATO.
I know, some people vehemently say "stalemate" doesn't mean static and a lot is going on--so stop using that term! But I think everyone who says it is a stalemate fully understands the nuance of a raging and bloody war along a barely moving front. So yeah, it's a stalemate:
Russian military and political leaders are growing increasingly concerned at the slow, or no, movement of Russian forces in Ukraine. ... Pre-war Russian army planning documents, based on World War II experience, stipulated that Russian troops should be able to advance at between 1.5 and 3 kilometers a day. In Ukraine, the latest Russian offensive operations have been advancing at the rate of one or two kilometers a month.
I don't know how stable the ground stalemate is. But right now, the front is kind of not moving.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Graph from ISW, obviously.
