Russia is damaging itself in its invasion of Ukraine while Ukraine holds on, hoping for ... what?
The war goes on. The big news is that Europeans are edging toward a post-conflict partnership with Ukraine, inside Ukraine and with defense production. And Russia launched a ballistic missile with the dual mission of hitting Ukraine's defense industry site and deterring Europeans from sending troops to Ukraine.
Fighting continues. Russia set a record for losing men in a calendar year--100,000 KIA, if what I read is accurate--and wants everyone to believe that for Russia this is just a normal cost of business.
Obviously, Ukraine fights hoping not to lose. But trading of space for time to kill more Russian attackers has not broken Russia's will to keep throwing men and materiel at the Ukrainians while insisting Russian civilians cover the financial cost. What does Ukraine hope to achieve by holding on?
- Russia's ground forces could break as a whole, on one section of the front, or in one particular type of ground forces (army, airborne, or naval infantry).
- The economy could break.
- The leadership class could break.
- The people of Russia could break.
- Putin could break--from illness, death, or worries about 1-4.
I don't rule out that Ukraine could be vulnerable to the first problem, at least on the one section of the front aspect. But I don't think the other areas are a vulnerability as long as Ukraine gets significant foreign support for its war effort. I did not think that a much larger Russia necessarily gained a decisive advantage over a smaller but NATO-backed Ukraine.
With the war nearing the four-year mark, Russia has not been able to decisively exploit its population and GDP advantage to defeat Ukraine. And people get tired of war. Even in an authoritarian regime like Russia's. And that shift could be sudden. Polling may show support for Putin, but more and more of the "pro-war" polling will be from people less pro-war than pro-not getting tossed in jail for being less than enthusiastic.
Once Russian people start to realize that a whole lot of people think like they do--if that shift is happening--there could be a rapid cascade of people expressing their opposition to the war.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
