Is Russia's use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine the flashy expansion of a dying red tsar before contracting to a white dwarf?
The war goes on. The big recent new thing was Russia's addition of a big, expensive ballistic missile for one of its nightly barrages to hit western Ukraine:
The intense barrage and the launching of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile came days after Ukraine and its allies reported major progress toward agreeing on how to defend the country from further Moscow aggression if a peace deal is struck to end Russia’s almost 4-year-old invasion.
European moves (with America seemingly an associated power rather than Allied power in this initiative) to stabilize Ukraine after the Winter War of 2022 ends seem to assume the post-war stabilization issue is no longer one that Russia can veto. That's a whole lot of interesting:
There is a story that has been going around about a physicist, a chemist, and an economist who were stranded on a desert island with no implements and a can of food. The physicist and the chemist each devised an ingenious mechanism for getting the can open; the economist merely said, "Assume we have a can opener"!
Economists can only look on in awe at these diplomats. What intelligence do the diplomats have on Russia's ability to wage war that makes them think that when push comes to shove Russia will have to go along with a ceasefire? I'm hoping that they know things that I can only suspect and hope for.*
On the other side, the Red Juggernaut that Moscow is presenting isn't persuading some Russians:
Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
Yeah, an alternate battlefield reality seems about right.
Still, it seems that we can assume a can opener for the purpose of moving discussions forward. What's it going to do, make Russia mad?
But something has to open the can to get at the post-war stabilization part of this war.
And then we might get the answer to my big question.
*Well, to be precise, things I hope exist and that Russia recognizes the crisis in time to avoid catastrophic disintegration.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: GIF from NASA.
