Is China waiting to pounce on a defeated Russia that fractures in post-war chaos?
I've long wanted to defeat Russia without destroying it as a potential counter-weight to China aligned with America. Having played that game with America when Russia was stronger than China, perhaps China sees that risk, too:
For the United States and Europe, the perspective of the disintegration of Russia looks like a catastrophe: chaos, the threat of uncontrolled use of nuclear weapons, ecological risks for the whole world. But for China this scenario opens a “window of opportunities.” Specifically, there’s a chance at a long-awaited prize — the return of “historic territories,” which in Chinese historiography are interpreted as “lost heritage”: the Far East and Siberia.
As Russia demonstrates its limits as an ally by self immolating in Ukraine, China may consider whether the time for pouncing to loosen Russia's control of the Pacific Far East has unexpectedly arrived. Recall that Iraq was tempted into hitting its long-time foe Iran while it had a chance after the Iranian Islamist revolution and the rise of the mullahs crippled Iranian military power.
I view China and Russia as frenemies with temporary benefits. Those two Pact of Steal powers won't be shy about turning on the other if opportunity rises. And a crisis in Russia may be a very tempting opportunity for China.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
NOTE: I made the image in Substack for my post with the second quote.
