I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy, Part 5: The Middle East
In case you missed it on Substack: Space Supply!
In case you missed it on Substack: Marine Aviation Force Design
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy, Part 6: Africa
Germany's future large USV called a remote missile vessel: "The LRMV has no fire control equipment and depends on encrypted signals from the frigates about where the targets are and when to fire on them. I mentioned Germany's LRMV and embraced its use as an external magazine ship for Navy warships here.
China began reorganizing and upgrading its special forces in 2017: "China believes it will take until 2049 for Chinese SOF training and equipment upgrades to be complete. At that point China will have over 40,000 SOF personnel."
Hopefully this enables and motivates Nigeria to do the job: "Nigeria, which is battling multiple armed groups, said the U.S. strikes were part of an exchange of intelligence and strategic coordination between the two countries."
Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget, with an eye on China.
The latest DOD report to Congress on China's military power.
American companies must not be intimidated the way Europeans have into not arming Taiwan: "Beijing imposed sanctions on Friday against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 executives, a week after Washington announced large-scale arms sales to Taiwan." And reverse freezing their assets in China.
Diplomacy continues regarding the Winter War of 2022, including Zelensky meeting Trump in Florida.
I have strong doubts that this British Military Experience Camp will do much to rebuild the British military. Half in the past have enlisted for real. How many of them would have anyway?
DF-27: "The Pentagon has claimed that Chinese missile forces are operating a new type of anti-ship ballistic missiles that are capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States[.]" Plus much of the Indian Ocean and covering the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. And the Black Sea for giggles.
Threats: "China's military conducted live-fire military drills around Taiwan on Monday in what a Chinese official said marked 'a stern warning' against 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces and external interference." Don't assume China can't invade Taiwan.
I assumed Ford would not remain in the Caribbean for long after its long deployment in the Eastern Hemisphere.
The "strange" fear of Russia. Yes, Russia has had trouble conquering bits of Ukraine. So fear is overblown for total conquest of Europe. But just as Ukraine can't eject a functioning Russian army, Russia--backed by nukes--could gnaw at NATO territory. Eventually NATO might crack. So yes, fear it enough to prepare.
The European Union only wants rubber stamp democracy. Votes--and thoughts--that go against the EU are illegitimate in its eyes: "Thousands of Europeans are jailed annually by the regime for tweets." Gosh, what on Earth was Vance thinking?
Well, Cambodia has been a loyal client of China: "China took thinly veiled swipes at President Donald Trump’s efforts to end a border clash between Thailand and Cambodia, with Beijing seeking a role as a peacemaker between the Southeast Asian neighbors."
Tenth Mountain Division established an attack drone unit: "The division on Dec. 16 established Fox Company, 1-10 Attack Battalion, under its 10th Combat Aviation Brigade." We'll see if it does the job better than attack helicopters.
Strike or cover for other means? "President Donald Trump has indicated that the U.S. has “hit” a dock facility along a shore as he wages a pressure campaign on Venezuela, but the U.S. offered few details."
Normally that would be stupid: "Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country is engaged in a 'full-fledged war with America, Israel, and Europe.'" But too many in the West don't believe him or think they are the exception. Question: How will Europe deal with its Islam problem if Iran gets nukes?
China's growing space launch capability.
"Turns to"?! "Hezbollah terrorists are flocking to Venezuela as the terror group—and Iran's most important proxy—increasingly turns to drug trafficking as a way to raise revenue in the aftermath of Israel's successful campaigns[.]" Letting them sell drugs was a price for the awful Iran nuke deal!!
Protests on a small scale have taken place in Iran. Blip? Or more?
Oh. Hello pucker factor: "The United States is trying to do something about Chinese dominance in shipbuilding. ... U.S. government efforts to revive American shipbuilding have so far come to nothing."
Sanctions aren't a silver bullet. But they have added to Russian problems: "Off the battlefield, one of the hardest hit entities is the Russian economy from economic sanctions by NATO countries."
The missiles are too expensive to replace all missiles. But [gulp]: "China’s surface combatants are set to receive a new hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability following the finalization tests of the YJ-20 from a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) destroyer."
I ignore Democratic hysteria over Putin. I believe Trump is trying to be the "good cop" to wean Russia from its vassalage under China. But the SOB Putin keeps being the turd in the punch bowl. Putin better hope that China doesn't get a better trade deal for cutting off Russia from Chinese support.
Huh: "Saudi Arabia bombed an arms shipment from the United Arab Emirates bound for separatist forces in Yemen." Not the Houthi's, a different faction in the three-way internal divide ( plus al Qaeda ...).
Israel may go to war in Lebanon if Hezbollah doesn't withdraw further north. Honestly, I think Israel needs Hezbollah cleared out as far north as the Bekaa Valley to prevent the terrorist group from reconstituting a threat against Israel.
Iran is cruising for a bruising from Israel again. Would Israel strike similar military and nuclear targets to stop reconstitution of Iran's missile capabilities? Or expand to economic targets? That's riskier given Israel's vulnerable desalinization plants.
The European Union's five stages of grief over the demise of the trans-Atlantic relationship? Oh, please! Those are Crocodile Tears. The EU's primary immediate goal is to eject America from Europe. The demise of the trans-Atlantic relationship is over-blown. But I do want America firmly in NATO.
Denmark tries to close the refugee spigot without preventing beneficial immigration.
Well, sure, drive-by strikes on jihadis in Nigeria aren't a silver-bullet solution. Ultimately, Nigeria has to defeat them.
I guess we now know why Russia claimed Ukraine tried to kill Putin.
Israel wants 25 new F-15IA aircraft with an option for 25 more.
CENTCOM killed or captured nearly 25 ISIL operatives: "Over a nine-day period, U.S. and allied forces conducted 11 operations that killed at least seven ISIS fighters and destroyed four of the group’s weapons caches[.]"
America will revive Nifty Nugget to test whether America can mobilize its forces globally for a major war. The last one did not go well. Let's see if we remembered what we learned in 1978 to mobilize reserves for a fight in INDOPACOM.
The Venezuelan tanker America has been chasing for ten days painted a Russian flag on its hull, apparently claiming Russian protection. Probably a bluff. But if so, this is a problem that arises when you telegraph your threat to board.
Huh: "The United Arab Emirates said it will withdraw forces from Yemen following a flare up in tensions with Gulf ally Saudi Arabia over military operations in the conflict-hit country." I predict that the UAE doesn't withdraw from all Yemen territory.
America's allies and partners should base their defense on a "porcupine" strategy? Careful, there. Picking weapons that are most effective against enemy capabilities is good. But too often "porcupine" advocates slide into silver bullet wonder weapon worship that is a suicide pact.
The Soviets and now the Russians insist NATO is a danger that might rouse itself from slumber and march on Moscow: "This is a bad habit that Russia is having a difficult time overcoming even though the old Soviet Union collapsed from, among other things, doing the same thing."
Strategersky: "Not only is China reducing economic cooperation with Russia, but it has also raised the issue of extensive portions of Russia’s Far Eastern Pacific coastal provinces that are claimed by China."
How many Americans are stupid enough risk Russia arresting them to trade for a Russian spy? "The State Department has updated its travel warning for Americans planning to or who are already visiting Russia. On Tuesday, the agency reissued a Level 4 travel warning for Russia that was announced in May."
Iran responded to Trump's threat over Iran's nuclear missile ambitions by warning they could defend themselves preemptively. I guess 47 years of spittle-flecked "Death to America!" chants aren't threats.
Huh: "Mass protests have erupted across Iran calling for “death to the dictator” over the regime’s economic crisis." Of intense interest to me is that sending B-2 bombers didn't cause Iranians to rally around the mullahs, as opponents of dealing with enemy governments always claim.
China's military exercises around Taiwan included "a simulated drill involving the seizure of key ports and a special forces raid." Indeed.
If Russia was truly thankful for Trump, their people would never have said it out loud. They're just giving opponents of Trump here and abroad ammunition.
Celebrating Marine Corps transformation in 2025. I'll just step aside as you celebrate that clusterf**k.
Russia might not be behind it. But that's the way to bet: "Finnish authorities have seized a vessel suspected of damaging a critical underwater telecommunications cable linking its capital city Helsinki and Estonia's capital, Tallinn."
Gosh, why on Earth would America oppose the European Union? Do not become confused. The EU is promoting--not lamenting--a breakdown in trans-Atlantic relations for its own ambitions. Defeating the EU is a third of why America should continue to lead NATO.
Iran is apparently cracking down on expanded protests.
Iran's foreign minister lies that talks with America could benefit us both. Hogwash. Any deal with the mullahs is simple: "Well of course a deal is possible! Duh. All Iran has to do is pretend to end their drive for nuclear weapons and all we have to do is pretend to believe Iran."
Apparently, a CIA drone struck a remote dock used by drug cartels.
India and China: frenemy mine. Applies to a lot of countries who aren't currently shooting at each other. Including America and China and including Russia and Europeans.
Start yesterday: "New ship building programs remain behind schedule and over budget. That’s because American shipyards lack the capacity and skilled workforce to build the ships needed."
Organizations above the brigade. Russian and Ukrainian corps are more like American divisions.
Fascinating: "Iran has labeled Canada's navy a 'terrorist organization,' escalating tensions between the two countries and raising fresh concerns over diplomatic fallout." There is context, of course.
Nukes and undermining societal and state cohesion.
Huh: "Iran ground to a near standstill Wednesday as businesses, universities and government offices closed under a government-ordered shutdown amid protests caused by a growing political and economic crisis."
They should act like their very lives depend on it: "Taiwan President Lai Ching-te on Thursday stressed that investing in national defence is investing in peace amid rising tensions with China, urging the opposition-led legislature to approve a proposed special military budget."
China hits reality: "Japan is barreling forward with efforts to significantly boost its military capabilities to stand up to China’s growing threats by doubling annual arms spending." Seriously, bravo, Xi Jinping.
China really is working hard to ensure enemies 360 degrees: "China’s president, Xi Jinping, has vowed to reunify China and Taiwan in his annual New Year’s Eve speech in Beijing." Again, bravo.
ISW's report on China's exercise to simulate blockading Taiwan.
The divide in Space Force is bureaucratic between "operators and acquisition specialists". I was hoping it was between Space Navy people and those who want to focus on the Earth-Moon system.
I assume Ukraine will move a lot of their ground forces into reserve formations: "When the war with Russia eventually ends, Ukraine will be left with a military larger and with more recent experience than any of its European backers’." Ukraine can't afford an active military that large. But there's a solution.
America must take care not to forget the lessons of counter-insurgency. The article notes that democracy is not the relevant metric in a COIN war. I suggest Army brigade headquarters with different orientations that can be swapped to command a brigade.
Russia seeks to snuff out even a whiff of dissent on the war special military operation. Russia's war requires a police state to wage war; and a police state requires a war--or at least a looming war--to justify a police state.
Strategypage's review of wars and potential wars in 2025. First up? The problem of Islamic Arab terrorism fed by "an abundance of corruption and a lack of economic, educational, and political progress and performance." Some of the language is old--e.g., Sunnis are down in Iraq and Alawites are down in Syria.
Huh: "President Trump warned Friday in a social media post that if Iran 'violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.'" Will the Iranian people cut the mullah Gordian Knot?
Personnel is policy: "China’s population and GDP collapse in the next 30-40 years is certain. China is only temporarily a great power. South Korea, Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey face similar demographic crashes."
But we lost the Iraq War! "In 2025 American and Iraqi forces continued to find and capture or kill groups of Islamic terrorists." We won but it is oddly overlooked. But no victory is permanent.
I don't think the M10 Booker is Exhibit A for claiming the Army can't build weapons. The very premise was flawed.
India can stiff-arm America over trade issues for only so long: "China is quietly building a counterarchitecture aimed not at the Quad as a whole, but at its most exposed member: India." But for China, Pakistan is a weak club. And India has escalation options at sea.
Assuming the current figure isn't inflated: "China’s current population of 1.4 billion will face marked decline, and could fall by more than half by 2100." I've been all over the demographic bust in China.
And before this, Trump didn't stop the flood of weapons Biden front-loaded for Ukraine: "Since June, the CIA, with Donald Trump’s blessing, has been covertly providing specific intelligence to bolster Ukraine’s aerial offensive against oil refineries inside Russia, according to the officials." Not. Abandoning. Ukraine.
Forgive this detour, but socialism is evil no matter what modifier you slap on the front like some magical incantation; and I enlisted to fight that scourge, if necessary. Via Instapundit, this:
Bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them: "A senior Iranian official on Friday condemned President Trump’s threat that the U.S. would come to the aid of protesters in the country facing violence, warning that the Islamic Republic could retaliate against American bases and troops in the region."
China's very long range anti-ship ballistic missiles pose a threat. But don't panic. Work the problem and attack the links in the kill chain. And if China's missile works, we could kill PLAN ships leaving their ports.
Regime decapitation: "The United States hit Venezuela with a “large-scale strike” early Saturday and said its president had been captured and flown out of the country [.]" I heard Delta Force was the tip of the spear on the ground. A number of ground targets were hit, too.
License to kill? "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reacted for the first time to the unrest that has gripped the country over the past seven days and called for strict measures against 'rioters.'"
Please save your outrage over the legality of the American operation to arrest Maduro and his wife using the military. Recall that the Obama administration wasn't a war under the War Powers Act because Libya couldn't shoot back.
Maduro (and his wife?) will stand trial in the United States.
Sure: "The United States cannot expect a more capable and independent Europe to simply follow its orders." From the "Well, Duh" files. Which is why I want America actively involved in NATO. But honestly, "Europe" (the EU) wants the political power more than military capability that justifies power.
Palestinian Firsters. I know I didn't vote for them as Queen of the Victim Prom.
Army Delta Force has been focused on operations in Syria. How long have they been absent to carry out the Venezuela mission? Will they return to a Syria focus? Heck, is it large enough to be split? Or is Venezuela going to be the mission to support a new government there?
The Saudis want the UAE and southern Yemen factions to settle the ef down and discuss a settlement. Can't they just all get along and defeat Iran's proxy, the Houthi?
Via Instapundit, this: "Fox News pundit says the unconfirmed U.S. invasion of Venezuela is for national security against Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Russia and China." Toss in Cuba. And drug cartels, of course. This is why I remain uncertain about the main objective. But broader effects follow.
Uniformed and non-uniformed civilians who work for the military. The more things change ...
Can't stop the signal? "The introduction of [the government messaging app,] Max is part of Putin’s plan to create a sovereign, used in Russia only, internet."
The silence of the lambs: "Exceptional levels of violence swept through Europe on New Year’s Eve, stretching the resources of law enforcement and emergency services in many major cities." I watched a European news piece about Netherlands violence. The local reporter worked very hard not to say "Islam."
Capturing Maduro did not end the Venezuela problem. What happens next? Just going to say that no enemy was waiting for America to capture a drug-running illegitimate ruler to justify their own aggression. FFS. The magical thinking about the power of American action or inaction is astounding.
War on terror: "Britain and France on Saturday conducted an airstrike on an underground facility in the mountains north of Palmyra, Syria, which ISIS terrorists "likely" used to store weapons and explosives, the British Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement."
Make it so: "The conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party in Germany is calling for 'comprehensive' surveillance of the entire Baltic Sea in response to what it describes as growing threats[.]" With better surveillance, it's harder to pretend Russia isn't responsible for sabotage.
Will pounding the Iranian mullahs if they slaughter protesters doom the mullah regime? Not alone. Strong people and shaky security forces are needed. And I don't think America will--or should--land troops. But even if it fails, America shows that unlike the past, it's on the side of Iranian people risking their lives.
Corruption related? "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced further personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military." Or just competence-based?
Likely and possible locations of Iranian protests.
The usual Communist suspects are already out with their signs and chants to defend Maduro.
Will the U.S. subcontract reconstruction to oil companies and use mercenaries to protect key facilities and train new government security forces? We should brush up on the old State Department plan to help Iraq after withdrawing all American troops from Iraq in 2011. It included a 5,000-man mercenary army.
I started using my Substack illustration here for the actual full post. Not sure why that didn't occur to me right off the bat given that I illustrate every other post.
