A U.S. decision not to sell Taiwan new F-16 fighter jets is being seen by many U.S. allies in Asia as a sign of China's growing clout.
The pre-eminent military power in East Asia for a half-century, the U.S. has explicitly and implicitly provided a security umbrella for countries from Singapore to Japan, helping to keep the peace that has fostered stunning economic growth.
While few of these allies believe the U.S. is lessening its commitment to the region, they still see Washington's refusal to make the F-16 sale — confirmed to The Associated Press by two congressional aides privy to an administration briefing on the issue — as showing a new deference to Chinese interests.
You think? It is obvious that bowing to China will lead to no good. We should sell those planes to Taiwan. And get them subs, too, while we are at it.
"Smart" diplomacy, indeed. One failure may not make them think we are lessening our commitment, but keep doing it and they will. We've sown the seeds of doubt with this decision. China will cultivate that doubt.
UPDATE: Oh, I forgot to add this defense of our "smart" diplomacy:
Supporters of the decision regarded it as a Solomonic compromise, taking account of Taiwan's defense needs — particularly its growing air power gap with China — while also safeguarding the integrity of America's increasingly important relationship with Beijing.
Solomon decided to cut the baby in half to settle the dispute between two women claiming to be the child's mother, knowing the true mother would give up the baby out of love rather than see the child killed. Solomon's decision to split the baby was not the wise part. It was his knowledge that the right thing would be done that made it wise.
What baby just died with this "Solomonic compromise?"
UPDATE: China unhappy, Taiwan unhappy, allies unhappy, and domestic opponents unhappy with this "Solomonic compromise:"
Regardless, today’s decision is a ‘lose-lose’ proposition for Obama: Beijing won’t be happy, and won’t be until Taiwan gives up its aspirations to be a full and equal member of the international community. And Taiwan isn’t going to be happy about this either.
But, more than anything, the decision doesn’t bode well for the United States’ strategic influence in East Asia, as other nations will interpret it as a retreat and a reduction of support for a key nation in the chain of nations bordering China in the Eastern Pacific.
In the end, Solomon got a living baby reunited with the child's mother and a fraud exposed. What are we getting?
Sure, administration defenders can say that instead of F-16s we'll sell F-35 fighters (the short-take-off version):
A U.S. Defense Department study has concluded that Taiwan should buy short-takeoff and vertical-landing jets such as the British-designed AV-8B Harrier jump jet or the new F-35B vertical-takeoff jet, the Washington Times reported Monday.
But the development of this plane is behind schedule as it is. And the costs have led to discussions of killing the short-take-off version. Oh well! Bad luck on that! Sorry.
Anyone who believes this is anything but politics to put off the decision safely after even a second Obama term is fooling themself
UPDATE: While floating the F-35 as the reason for the F-16 denial is good domestic politics (if it is believed), the cost and requirements for getting the advanced (and yet to go into production) plane are probably too much for Taiwan to overcome even if they'd like to have the plane:
A Taiwan defense industry source said the MND modified its requirement in 2004 with a bolder request for 60 F-35B STOVL and 150 F-35A conventional take-off and landing aircraft.
A former Taiwan air force official confirmed the 2002 request. "The difficult part will be the budget, qualified people and the political situation," he said. "Taiwan's air force cannot solve these problems by themselves, so I really doubt … they can make it."
If America and Taiwan confirm an agreement for the sale and Taiwan's parliament ramps up their defense budget to pay for it, then I'll buy the wisdom of refusing to sell F-16s to Taiwan.
