Saturday, September 17, 2011

Counting the Brigades

Strategypage notes the good news that Army dwell time will go up:

Starting next month, most U.S. Army troops going overseas to a combat zone, will get at least two years in the United States base when they return to combat. This time at their home base, with their families, is called "dwell time," and the more of it you have between combat tours, the less likely you are to have stress related mental problems. This is a big deal, but there are several other reasons for the two year dwell time goal. These include morale, keeping combat veterans in uniform, as well as the reduction in combat stress.

But this part requires some clarification:

The math works like this. The army, marines and reserves can muster about sixty combat brigades. During 2004-7, there were 19 brigades deployed to combat zones (15 in Iraq, three in Afghanistan and one in South Korea.) That's when the army began working to get active duty troops two years dwell time for every year in a combat zone. For reserve troops, the goal was home for four years, overseas for one. It was believed that, with a little help from the marines, the army can just about make that. The increase in troops sent to Afghanistan will delay this dwell time plan for a few years.

We have more than 60 combat brigades. We have 84 (or maybe 85). Let me explain with this post:

We have 45 active Army brigades and 8 active Marine regimental combat teams (or perhaps 9 now, after the Marines got an increase in end strength along with the Army), making for 53 active brigades or brigade equivalents. Add in 3 Marine reserve regiments. Now we are at 56. So the Army National Guard can add 4 more brigades to reach the 60 Strategypage notes?

Not exactly. The Guard has 28 brigade combat teams, total. The plan for the Guard combat brigades is to plan for 4 to 5 brigades available to be mobilized in any given year. That is what gets us to 60.

I go into a bit more detail on the implications for fielding troops. I think (if my memory is correct) that the Army assumes 1.15 brigades are needed for every brigade kept in the field for a year, so you can't keep a third of your brigades deployed and still give your units 2 years at home. That's because you need some overlap as one brigade replaces one leaving the field. That wouldn't apply to the Guard brigades because rather than seeing them as all in the pool for deployment, we assume just 4-5 brigades as being available each year (unless there is a dire national emergency). I assume the Marines might consider one of their 3 reserve regiments as available per year.

But the bottom line is that we will be better prepared to rotate wars through a single Iraq- or Afghanistan-type contingency without placing the same amount of stress on our troops as the Iraq surge-era Army experienced. That's good for the troops, good for the Army, and ultimately good for our country. Let's not eff this up by slashing the defense budget.