Definitely Confused

Ah, with rumors swirling that the Obama administration will deny Taiwan their request for 66 late-model F-16s, the confusion begins with a defense of the "wisdom" of this decision.

It is difficult for me to express the depth and breadth of my contempt for this exercise in mental gymnastics. But let's try, eh?

One, the author says:

China was throwing a fit.

That's it. No other reason. They were throwing a hissy fit. So because they don't like it and vocally express their anger, we shouldn't do it. But if China is willing to throw a fit over our defense of a free nation, how good are our relations? Who's next to be a core interest of China that must fall within their borders? Korea? Vietnam? Parts of India? Russia's Far East? The South China Sea? If China's appetite for control is limited only by the amount of power they have, who thinks Taiwan is their last territorial ambition?

Two:

U.S. debt was a factor.

So China was going to use $1.1 trillion of our debt they hold as a weapon? I don't know how much of a weapon it is. Couldn't we just renounce that particular debt without rattling other debt holders, justifying it by saying China is using it as a weapon? Wouldn't we cut off Chinese exports to America? China has its own problems and failure to maintain high rates of growth to lead to significant local unrest. And at a time when the example of the Arab Spring hangs in the air even in China, I doubt China would play with fire. And if they use it? Maybe we need the jolt of seeing the problem of our debt now rather than later.

Three:

It's not clear Taiwan needs the jets.

This is the dumbest one yet, and the first two are world-class confused. While it is true that in the short run, upgrading twice as many older F-16s to the same standard as getting 66 new F-16s is better, either is insufficient to protect Taiwan's skies. Both programs--and more beyond both--are needed. And saying that getting diesel submarines is more important than F-16s misses the point that nobody who makes subs will sell them to Taiwan. We don't make them. But if we won't sell new F-16s to Taiwan, who thinks we'd sell submarines which the author says may be more important? Will China not throw a fit over that? Yes, Taiwan needs submarines. They need upgraded F-16s. And they need new F-16s to replace other aging planes in their arsenal that have no place on the front line. It is very clear that Taiwan needs the jets. Maybe Taiwan doesn't want to spend the money to get what they need. But that is a completely separate issue. We shouldn't be the excuse and we shouldn't be seen as denying an ally weapons they need.

Four, and the biggest confusion so far:

The F-16s are more offensive than defensive.

Oh. My. God. This is ultra stupidity. Weapons are weapons. You give me a "defensive" weapon that is 100% effective at something, and I'll use it as a shield to protect myself as I attack. Trying to decide whether a weapon is offensive or defensive is stupidity disguised as deep analysis. So what if the plane can drop bombs on China? Stopping Chinese troops from boarding ships in port is defensive if the Chinese are in the process of invading Taiwan. Sinking that Chinese troop ship in the Taiwan Strait is defensive. Striking Chinese ground troops setting up a perimeter is defensive. And given the growing Chinese air capability, my guess is that the F-16s will be fully engaged in their primary mission of battling Chinese aircraft, and until our planes can enter the fray won't have any time for their secondary role of ground attack.

And the author winds up saying that denying the new planes now doesn't rule out selling them later. And that it is all about politics to keep the F-16 line open. One, that's how Taiwan got their older planes back in 1992 as Bush 41 tried to keep his job. Two, if China can stop the sale now, what factors cited--as ridiculous as they are--will be better 4 years down the line? And three, if lack of sales shuts down the F-16 production line before Taiwan can request more new planes, how will we deliver them?

I figured people would get confused on this issue. Boy, was I right.