Into the Hindu Kush

President Obama addressed the nation last night, pledging 30,000 new troops in an Afghanistan surge to buy time for Afghanistan to win the fight. Hopefully, we knock down the enemy enough and stand up government and pro-government forces enough that our side can win with a diminishing US/allied direct combat role (though we'd need to support our side with logistics, planning, firepower, intel/recon, etc.)

Good. I'll not quibble over wording of this or that. The point is that we are going to give the military the tools to win.

And I won't even complain--as many are--over the planned withdrawal of troops starting in mid-2011, depending on conditions. Remember, our Iraq surge had at least an implicit ending point given that we couldn't maintain the commitment of 20 brigades there for more than one tour of duty. And Congress worked from the start to defund or limit the surge in the summer of 2007, yet that didn't give our enemies a reason to lay low and wait us out. We beat them in Iraq.

Besides, laying low just gives us the time and peace to round up the enemy. Being quiet may be indistinguishable from losing for the average Afghan villager. There is a risk to laying low while we entrench security and governing forces and build infrastructure throughout the country. No, the enemy will fight us regardless of whether they think we might start withdrawing in a year and a half. They can't afford not to.

I do admit that when it comes to a surge of troops, Bush had the advantage over Obama in that he was viewed as wanting (stubbornly, as critics put it) to win, while Obama has a reputation that requires him to prove he wants to win even if the going gets tough. Clearly, this harms his credibility on this surge. But our troops in the field will have a big say on whether the enemy believes we will or won't win.

And Europe is stepping up in a baby-steps sort of way given their meager power projection capabilities. We'll get a whole 5,000 troops from the entire continental alliance and friends there. The article has a lot of numbers on force levels, although I'm not sure what they're counting when it comes to US troops since they call our strength 71,000 (it may be they are counting forces north of Afghanistan who support the logistics line).

Pakistan continues to fight on their side of the border. We'll need that.

And if it makes the president and conservatives fell better about what our president plans, the most over-rated strategic thinker of our age opposes the president's surge. Now that's as close to a guarantee of success that you can get in this world!

Finally, stop calling this Obama's war. And don't minimize it by calling it an inherited (from Bush) war. This is America's war. America wins or loses it, depending on how the fight goes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Let's win this war. Support the president.

UPDATE: I'd just like to note that a lot of people on the right have criticized the president over his decision or speech wording or tone. I sympathize. It would be very easy to join in, and would probably be very satisfying. But I really do try to analyze what the president does in foreign policy apart from my general views of his presidency or his rhetoric. If I descend into Obama Derangement Syndrome, I hope I have the decency to quit blogging.

But don't expect me to develop respect for Thomas Friedman. I'm only human.