On the surface, this is comforting for us (if not for those closer to Iran):
An internal report for the U.S. Congress has concluded that Iran probably is no longer on track, if it ever was, to having an ocean-crossing missile as soon as 2015.
The study casts doubt on a view long held by U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran could be able to test-fly by 2015 an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, if it receives "sufficient foreign assistance."
"It is increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015," said the report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, which works exclusively for lawmakers.
They do respectable work. I once thought I'd like to work for them, but made do with a state version of that organization (which also does quite respectable work).
But it is not the final word. On this, it is likely irrelevant since it assumes something that should not be assumed--that Iran will have long-range ballistic missiles when Iran develops them.
That is not true. When North Korea gets them, Iran will have them soon after.
Hey, isn't North Korea about to test one? Why, yes. Yes they are:
The launch, if successful, could prove that North Korea is capable of targeting the mainland United States with a missile. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Friday in a briefing that the planned launch is a threat that Washington takes "very seriously."
This is the main reason I worry about the effectiveness of an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Like the reactor in Syria that Israel destroyed 5 years ago (or so), I suspect that Iran has dispersed assets abroad to restart their programs if we wreck what is in Iran.
