Given my sheer speculation that if Russia wants to retain a naval base in Syria that Russia should consider sending a marine battalion and either a paratrooper regiment (my early thinking when Assad had more troops) or a parachute division to bolster a Syria reduced in size to what Assad's forces can hold, this is interesting:
Russia has sent warships to the Mediterranean Sea in case it needs to evacuate its citizens trapped by the civil war in Syria, a naval source was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Their departure points to growing concern in Moscow, a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, about rebel advances on the Syrian capital Damascus and suggests Russia is pressing ahead quickly with evacuation preparations announced by a diplomat last week.
In a further indication that Moscow believes an evacuation may soon be required, the head of Russia's paratroopers was quoted as saying his units were ready to take part.
The naval source told Interfax news agency that the five vessels, including two armed landing craft and a tanker, had left a Baltic port on Monday and could be in the Mediterranean indefinitely.
Well. Marines and paratroopers.
I'd think that with just over 5,000 Russian citizens in Syria and the time it would take to sail to Syria's coast, it would be easier to charter aircraft to pull civilians out of Syria.
Perhaps Russia really is abandoning Assad. Perhaps Russia is prodding Assad to do something to salvage a partial win rather than continuing on with a losing course--with the knowledge that troops are on the way to salvage what they can one way or the other. Perhaps Russia just doesn't know what will happen and is sending troops whether they evacuate, deter, or fight.
My most recent speculation is that if Assad truncates his realm, he tries to keep Damascus. Personally I think that is a mistake. And rebel gains in the Palestinian district highlights the difficulty of holding all that terrain and that many people so far from the Alawite core region.
But with no indications of late that Assad is planning to shift his capital to the Alawite core region or evacuate people and assets from Damascus, I thought I'd include holding Damascus in the retreat scenario. That requires Russian troops in the short run, I think.
UPDATE: So Iran is preparing for Syria after Assad?
Just a day after Iran's foreign minister pledged unwavering support for the embattled Assad, officials in Tehran outlined on Sunday a step-by-step peace plan for Syria capped by elections that presumably could usher in a new leader in Damascus.
It was another possible sign of Assad's fraying alliances after similar mixed messages last week from Russia, which tried to backpedal after a top diplomat said Assad is losing control of his country.
Maybe. Or maybe Iran is preparing for Assad after Syria?
Would Iran really abandon the very useful Assad now? Or would elections in a shrunken Syria simply validate Assad's control of a Rump Syria and buy time for Assad to rebuild his ground forces to gradually retake Syria over the next 5 years?
Hard to say. Well, hard for me to say.
But after seeing Russia and Iran back Assad thus far, I don't see why they wouldn't make the extra effort to retrieve the situation for Assad. What are they worried about doing if they try? Angering Syria's Sunnis? That ship sailed.
