The Syrian government lost control of their infantry school, which was being defended, in Aleppo:
An Islamist faction of Syrian rebels captured an infantry base in the northern city of Aleppo, its fighters said Sunday, as rebels fighting to topple President Bashar Assad advance on the country's largest city.
It was the second major army installation the rebels overran in a week in Aleppo, as the civil war closes in on Assad's troops and fighting intensifies in and around the capital, Damascus. The fighters have also seized air bases near both cities in recent weeks.
Taking the base will free up rebel forces for the main Aleppo front and provide an infusion of arms, as well as clearing up the line of supply for the rebels:
For more than three weeks now, opposition forces have besieged an infantry school in northern Aleppo that has in excess of 1,000 government forces inside. In recent days, they managed to breach the school and now say it is days away from falling.
“It’s the only spot in northern Aleppo that is not free. Once we have that all of northern Aleppo will be free,” says Haj Omar, the commander of the Free Syrian Army’s Bab al Salaam Battalion.
The fall of the school will be a significant stride forward for rebels, allowing them access to a more direct route to the Turkish border and capturing supplies critical for continuing their advance against President Bashar al-Assad's forces.
Rebels said that many of the defenders were prepared to defect. I don't see indications of whether the army defenders pulled south to the main line or were captured when the base fell.
Meanwhile, Syrian forces around Damascus have been unable to secure the capital; and hunger will be widespread over the winter. Iran is reduced to pointless warnings to NATO and Russia is agonizing whether it has or has not thrown in the towel over Assad.
Assad still has assets to continue his regime. He has loyal troops, a scared base of power, Russian and Iranian support, chemical weapons, aircraft, and missiles. But he doesn't have enough of these assets to control all of Syria.
Assad could even say he is not using chemical weapons against his own people as he pledged if, during his retreat, he fires them at rebels composed of foreign jihadis--or just says that is what he is doing--in order to prevent rebels from following too closely, and Russia or China back Assad in the UN Security Council.
Assad can hold the coast, inland mountains, and a buffer zone that extends out to the Aleppo-to-Damascus highway. How much of that line he can hold depends on how many troops he has. I'd guess Aleppo is beyond his reach, as is Damascus. But it is possible that if Assad abandons Damascus and moves his capital to the coastal region he'd have enough to capture and hold Aleppo.
Pulling back to a rump Syria of some sort wouldn't be easy. Much could go wrong. But continuing what he is doing is going to end up in disaster anyway. What does Assad have to lose by trying?
