The Russians think the civil war in Syria is stalemated. That is true only if Assad isn't retreating any more because earlier retreats were done on purpose. Otherwise, the trend of rebels gains is likely to continue.
But I can't rule out the Russians are right since this might fit in with that optimistic assumption:
[Foreign Minister] Lavrov said Russia had rejected requests from countries in the region to pressure Assad to go or offer him safe haven, and warned that his exit might lead to an upsurge in fighting.
He also said Syrian authorities were gathering the country's chemical weapons in one or two areas and that they were "under control" for the time being. "Currently the (Syrian) government is doing all it can to secure (chemical weapons), according to intelligence data we have and the West has," he said.
I guess we'll know if Lavrov is right about stalemate if Assad's forces stabilize their losses and even retake ground around Damascus and in Hama province.
UPDATE: This Israeli official oddly repeats the Russian assessment:
Syria's chemical weapons are still secure despite the fact that President Bashar al-Assad has lost control of parts of the country, a senior Israeli defense official said on Sunday.
Amos Gilad told Army Radio that the civil war between Assad and opposition forces fighting to topple him had become deadlocked, but that the Syrian leader showed no signs of heeding international calls to step down.
Saying WMD are secure despite loss of territory certainly implies that Assad moved chemical weapons. That is consistent with efforts to move them rather than use them.
But what is the reason to say the fighting is "deadlocked?" I see no indication that Assad's forces have stopped the rot. There is no sign that territory losses have halted and no sign that Assad may have contracted his forces enough to counter-attack to retake losses.
Are the Israelis talking with the Russians for some reason, hence the parallel language? Or do they really have indications I don't see online that the fighting is stalemated?
UPDATE: A more complete report on the Israeli official shows that he really believes the opposite of what the truncated quote indicated (tip to Mad Minerva):
"We need to stay level-headed; the entire world is dealing with this. At the moment, chemical weapons are under control. The opposition is not managing to defeat him and he is not defeating the opposition, though more and more parts of Syria are no longer under his control and that is what matters."
Yes, more and more territory falling to the rebels is the opposite of stalemate.
I still wonder whether we should be preparing for a post-Assad Syria or a post-Syria Assad.
