Weekend Data Dump

Some of the media apoplexy over Trump's impeachment acquittal is likely due to the media's enthusiastic role in sustaining the Trump candidacy back in early 2016 when they thought it would be hilarious to disrupt the Republican nominating contest and pave the way for President Hillary with a cupcake opponent. Oops. The do-over failed. And now they can really stew in their role in getting America to this place. I don't mind where we are. But they do mind very much.

Turkey is trying to kill two birds with one jihadi stone: "Syrian militants affiliated with groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State group are currently being sent by Turkey to fight on behalf of the U.N.-supported government in Libya, according to two Libyan militia leaders and a Syrian war monitor." As the Assad-Russian offensive continues to crush rebel strongholds in Idlib province over Turkish protests, the last thing Turkey wants are large numbers of defeated Turkish-supported jihadis running loose to cause problems inside Turkey. So sending the jihadis to Libya where they can kill Turkish enemies there while dying or at least going wild far from Turkey is a good idea for Turkey. China did this on a larger scale in the Korean War where they sent former KMT soldiers captured in the civil war to fight and die against the UN forces.

The Navy has been pretty active in conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea in defiance of Chinese territorial claims. But while the article says the FONOPs have not made China back down from their claims, that isn't the purpose. The purpose is to not validate those claims by failing to protest them. We achieve that. Also, contrary to the article many (all?) of the so-called FONOPs in the Obama administration were not true FONOPs.

Strategypage discusses the China virus factory and the China "virus" that scares OBOR pathway states.

Adam Schiff is batsh*t crazy: "Trump could offer Alaska to the Russians in exchange for support in the next election, or decide to move to Mar-A-Lago permanently and leave Jared Kushner to run the country, delegating to him the decision whether they go to war." The coronoavirus is nothing compared to Trump Hysteria Condition.

Haha:

Seriously, I've written as much.

Again, for all that Democrats accuse Republicans of being racist, Joy Reid accuses Buttigieg of appealing to Democratic voters with a racist "dog whistle."

The people who think they can run America like a well-oiled machine if only they had the power to control it can't run a single day of vote-counting in a place they've been doing this every four years. This should not just be a lesson for Democratic control, of course. Nobody has the information and wisdom to control our economy as every experiment in socialism shows, whether in benign versions in Scandinavia or in dictatorships like the USSR or Venezuela.

Looking back at liberal privilege a year ago in Virginia. 

Strategypage discusses virus generation in China and the democracy virus in this podcast. Interestingly enough they mention the issue of the potential for multiple countries within the empire's current borders if things go really bad for the CCP.

In theory I have no problem with Iraqis government officials wanting to tackle ISIL without American help. In the long run, that's great. But if it makes their counter-terrorism efforts fail or allow Iran to gain or even just retain influence, that's bad. I bet the Iraqi military wants American support since they are at the pointy end of the stick.

Well, this was at least a slight step up the sanity ladder from this:


Romney voted for one of the two impeachment charges. I'm sure he had a binder full of reasons. May he enjoy his rehabilitation in the media that called him a homophobic, Russia-obsessed 1 percenter Nazi in 2012. If he truly voted to convict based on his sense of what is right, I'll grant him a point for courage. But deduct for bad judgment on concluding what is right and wrong under the circumstances. I would not figuratively exile him, because I assume he hasn't gone full "woke" and should be a generally reliable conservative vote in the Senate. Never punish the 80% ally at the risk of getting a 100% foe.

So rather than being a serious effort to remove Trump the impeachment was servicing the fan base of the Democrats? That makes sense. Just think of CNN and MSNBC as competing political porn channels with Democrats as their excited customer base. But despite the stroking Pelosi gave her caucus before the Senate vote, what will the frustrated fans do without a happy ending? Tips to Instapundit.

Afghanistan.

Reading this story about the Iowa caucus imbroglio makes me think of people trying to take control of the bridge of the Democratic ship to sail it to the White House. And then you realize that the ship is the RMS Titanic that hit an iceberg called Shadow whose visible tip concealed the 90% "disorganization and stupidity" that sank the event--and they should be heading for the too-few life boats rather than the bridge.

I really should laugh at this given how their fans sneer at doubters. Tip to Instapundit.

Another university researcher nabbed for working for China. And more keep showing up. Those Confucius Institutes on American university campuses are clearly espionage hubs and not "just" propaganda arms of the Chinese Communist Party. They should be shut down ASAP and their records seized to figure out the extent of their penetration of our society.

Sure, there are a lot of reasons why Iran and America could clash in Iraq. But the basic reason is that the battle with Iran over Iraq is essentially Phase IX of the Iraq War begun in 2003. I'm hoping this phase is less military than past phases. A stable Iraq with rule of law is our best weapon. But mostly I'm hoping we win this phase. If you lose the last phase you've forfeited the prior wins.

No word if Li Wenliang was hospitalized in the same facility that Jeffrey Epstein was held. He doesn't seem to be in the demographic (34 years old) for high mortality, does he? Or maybe he's alive. Hope so. Tips to Instapundit. No, sadly he is dead and the Chinese Communist Party is working hard to eliminate the tributes to his courage in defying--and ending--the cover up. Communists are evil bastards. Treat them accordingly.

The Yemen clusterf*ck continues. Although just because the place is totally screwed no matter which way you look at it, nobody should want Iran positioned along the Strait of Mandeb where it could interdict oil traffic or our sea line of communication to the Middle East.

So who set up Afghanistan's vote-counting system? The Iowa Democratic Party?

Give the Kenyans the college credit and give them immigration priority.

Hahahahahaha! Some influential people are experiencing some consequences for illegal immigration sanctuary policies. Are they having fun yet?

Sad but funny. I've bitterly complained about that deficit and debt issue.

Iran's effort to create a "Shia crescent" across the Middle East is faltering--now that America is opposing rather than enabling mullah-run Iran's ambitions. The article describes efforts supported by America to rein in and tame the pro-Iran militias that I've mentioned in the past. That still needs to be done, of course. And until then we should highlight Iran's desire to fight its enemies to the last dead non-Iranian Moslem.

American pilots flying over enemy territory will have a compact version of the M-4, the GAU-5A, in case they need to hold off enemies until rescue arrives.

The Indian defense budget is dropping after accounting for inflation. Modernization or replacement of aging weapons is reduced to continue to pay personnel salaries and pensions. China smiles. The article mentions that India still hasn't contracted to replace 126 fighters despite deciding to do that nearly a decade ago. I called that the most important Indian defense decision of the last decade. Oh well, what's the rush, eh? What level of disaster will India have to face to fix their dysfunctional weapons procurement industry?

I was never happy that Israel cooperated with China by sharing Lavi technology that was based on the F-16. Israel abandoned the Lavi and China's version the J-10 just can't attract foreign sales.

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Sistani called on the government to protect Iraqi protesters--which certainly implies that the government or Iranian actors acting in the government's name shouldn't actively murder protesters. I'm amazed Sistani is still alive and just about prayed for his survival during the Iraq War. But if we are in Phase IX the war is still going on.

Trump fired Gordon Sondland from his position as the ambassador to the European Union. I don't think we should have any ambassador to the EU. Do we have an ambassador to the Model United Nations? We should appoint an ambassador to the EU the minute after France gives up its United Nations Security Council permanent member seat to the EU.

Lesbos is a pilot program for the idea that there is no limit to how many illegal immigrants can arrive in Europe without causing problems. What a shock that people turn to radicals for solutions when the "responsible" politicians refuse to do anything to help.

Oh good, another war on wasteful and fraudulent government spending. I'm sure this time for sure it will work. If Trump can succeed, good for him. But bloating the government budget first as he and every other president has done just makes the basic problem bigger.

When Chris Matthews is a voice of cautionary reason--and the loonies bolster his point. I am repulsed by Sanders and his "socialist" ilk, because as I noted in this data dump: Bernie Sanders was having a drunken ball with his Soviet friends in the Soviet Union on June 13, 1988. By contrast, I was having a very bad day on 13 JUN 88--but at least I had grenades to look forward to the next day." Tip to Instapundit.

I listened to and sometimes watched the State of the Union address. It was a good speech and used guests to illustrate themes just as past presidents have done. I have no idea what the heck the media was talking about in their fearful descriptions of the speech. I do not want whatever they're taking, that's for sure. And as I've said, I'd give good money if a president would simply send the SOTU in written form to be read--or ripped up in Pelosi's case--out of the spotlight. But in our video age that isn't going to happen because it is a lot of free advertising for the president and even some for those present but in opposition.

Members of Congress are calling for investigations into the practice of the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece China Daily of putting hundreds of pieces of propaganda into the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times disguised to resemble news articles. The Chinese paid for those pieces, of course. Fake news meddling in our daily life and not just during election season, eh?

The Army wants to build up  Army pre-positioned stock (APS) sites in INDOPACOM. Obviously I'm in favor of that.

I've been very worried about the ALIS logistics software that supports all users of the F-35 given what an enemy could learn if it is hacked. Allies weren't too comfortable with this, either. We worried enough to build a replacement called ODIN. Is this just ALIS with a tougher name or does it work?

Hahaha!


The Ukraine crisis where the West battles with Russia. My view is that Russia's 2014 invasion and occupation of portions of Ukraine plus the fact that pro-Russian Ukrainians in Russian-occupied Ukraine can no longer vote in Ukraine has made Ukraine the front line of the West and not just the no-man's land point of contact between Russia and the West. A big battle in that struggle is reducing Ukrainian corruption so that Ukraine isn't just a weaker version of corrupt Russia. Do that and Ukraine can fully take it's place in the West. That first article also notes that Russian control of Crimea allows Russia to project power south. I did say that Russia's direct intervention in Syria in 2015 was not just enabled by Crimean bases, but actually provided a justification for the war with Ukraine.

Russian special forces get an all-weather Mi-8 helicopter.

I'm going to try to draft a succinct description of the whole Russiagate-to-impeachment saga as I see it: "The Obama administration had some reason to believe Russia colluded with the Trump campaign to influence our 2016 election. Rather than investigating and rapidly dismissing such notions as without basis, the administration went too far into its own illegal collusion to find evidence it was true, believing Clinton would win and nothing would come out. After Trump won, the Democrats involved in that illegal collusion of their own have been conducting a spoiling offensive--including impeachment--to remove Trump from office. Or to at least stall and taint Trump administration actions against the Obama administration people for their overly enthusiastic investigation to make that illegal collusion "old news" unworthy of punishment at this late date." There you go.

Escorting the Tonnage

Moving and sustaining American forces sent to Europe requires an alliance escort effort.

So good:

NATO’s Joint Force Command Norfolk is heading towards reaching full operational capability next year, after the U.S. 2nd Fleet it is colocated with reached FOC in late December.

Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, who leads both organizations, said JFC Norfolk and 2nd Fleet are “natural partners” in bringing together allies on both sides of the Atlantic.

“We will seek to develop an innovative and collaborative effort between the two commands. Colocation in the same building, alignment of battle rhythms and staff integration where possible are just some of the things which will enable us to do more for the mission, whether it’s the one given to 2nd Fleet by U.S. leadership or the one given to Joint Force Command Norfolk by the 29 allies in NATO,” Lewis said Tuesday at an event co-hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Naval Institute.

I wasn't happy when 2nd Fleet told the logistics ships "good luck, you're on your own."

And a reborn fleet and simply building more logistics ships aren't the sole answer.

Getting the NATO receiving nations to help move the supplies and troops from North America is a good idea.

In for a Penny, In for a Pound?

Turkey has sent about a thousand vehicles and an unknown number of troops into Idlib recently, and has clashed with Syrian troops there:

The new push came as Turkey, a main backer of the opposition, sent more reinforcements into Idlib, according to the Observatory and Idlib-based media activist Taher al-Omar who is embedded with militants.

The Observatory said a convoy consisting of 430 vehicles entered Syria since Friday night, raising the number of vehicles that entered Syria since last weekend to well over 1,000.

A rare clash on Feb. 3, between Turkish troops and Syrian soldiers left seven Turkish soldiers and a Turkish civilian dead as well as 13 Syrian troops.

Turkey had too little inside Syria last year to stop Assad. The reported numbers recently sent don't seem nearly enough to halt the Russian-backed Assad offensive there.

Isn't it a bit late for Turkey to enforce their old ultimatum?

Or does Erdogan think Iran is too weakened by America's effort to resist Turkey? And does Erdogan think Russia is too weak and too eager to complete the sale of S-400s and perhaps aircraft to Turkey (in the hope of scoring a diplomatic coup of splitting Turkey away from NATO) to oppose Turkey as long as Turkey leaves Russia's Syrian bases alone?

If Turkey is willing to intervene in a more distant Libya, perhaps their willingness to fight in Syria is higher, eh?  Maybe there is no expiration date on the ultimatum.

What is Going on With Mookie 4.0?

What on Earth is Moqtada al-Sadr up to?

At least eight anti-government protesters were shot dead and 52 were wounded in clashes with followers of a radical Shiite cleric in southern Iraq on Wednesday, Iraqi medical officials and activists said.

The violence comes as new divisions have emerged among protesters and supporters of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who initially threw his weight behind the uprising. But he then re-positioned himself toward the political establishment after political elites selected Mohammed Allawi as prime minister-designate, a candidate he endorsed.

Since then al-Sadr has issued a dizzying array of calls to followers, asking them to return to the streets days after withdrawing support from protests. The often contradictory orders have exacerbated existing tensions between anti-government demonstrators and his followers, with some activists claiming al-Sadr’s followers had threatened them to toe the cleric’s line or leave protest sites.

I don't trust that three-time insurrectionist Sadr one damn bit and I worry we'll live to regret we let him live.

Casting Call for the Cannon Fodder

Iran wants to lead the Moslem world to battle against America and Israel:

On Wednesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei responded to President Donald Trump's Israel-Palestine peace plan by calling on "all Muslim nations & the world of Islam" to engage in a jihad against "the Zionist enemy & the U.S." President Trump and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled the "Deal of the Century," a two-state plan for peace between Israel and Palestine, on January 28. Palestinian leaders immediately rejected the plan and cut off ties with the U.S. and Israel.

Iran can't have peace between Israel and a peaceful Palestinian state. How would Iran wage war on Israel without launching pads in Gaza and Lebanon via compliant Arab terrorist group clients?

But past templates for deals have failed miserably. Perhaps we have to stop pretending that Israel hasn't won and that the peace deal must reflect that false reality of equals, as I noted in this data dump:

The Palestinians are angry at the US proposal for a two-state solution alongside Israel? One, they're always angry about something.  And two, the deal might be something that Israel can just unilaterally do. This may be more about dumping the Palestinians as too much bother to govern. If the Palestinians reject the deal the only thing they might be rejecting practically speaking is $50 billion in aid, a UN seat, and cooperation with Israel to help make things better for the Palestinians. Is Iran going to bail the Palestinians out? Even if Iran under sanctions could afford that, are the Palestinians unaware of the way Arab deals with Iran work? (After I wrote this I see that Scott Adams recognized the same aspect of not requiring the Palestinians to carry this out.)

And have no doubt that the Iranian call to arms is also a shot at Saudi Arabia in an effort to wrest control of religious leadership in the Islamic world from the Saudis--and undermine exclusive Saudi control of Mecca and Medina holy places.

Consider this Khamenei response just a really big version of Iran's desire to fight its enemies to the last dead Arab.

Explaining the Iowa Imbroglio

Results from the Monday Democratic caucus voting in Iowa are still incomplete.

And the head of the DNC wants a total recanvass of the vote.

Seriously, tell me this surprises you.

UPDATE: State Dem-DNC squabbles and the simplest explanation.

UPDATE: Good Lord, what is wrong with these Democrats?

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, a Texas Democrat, suggested during an FBI oversight hearing on Wednesday that Russia is responsible for the vote-reporting issues from Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses.

“I hope that the Iowa Democrats will ask for an FBI investigation on the app,” the Texas Democrat told FBI Director Christopher Wray. “I believe that Russia has been engaged in and interfering with a number of our elections dealing with the 2016 election.”

The Russians actually weren't involved. Democrats--with the company run by someone who worked on the Hillary campaign!-- did it to themselves.

For the record (at the moment and subject to recanvass if the DNC gets its way), Sanders won the most votes narrowly over Buttigieg who earned one more delegate than Sanders. Warren is in third in votes and delegates. With Biden behind her, and Klobuchar after that and managing just one delegate.

The Economy-of-Force Front

Africa has never gotten to the head of the line in resources as an economy-of-force front compared to CENTCOM the last twenty years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan; and compared to INDOPACOM especially and EUCOM in the newly defined era of great power competition against China and Russia. But some force is necessary in Africa.

AFRICOM is making its case:

While there have been reports of a possible U.S. drawdown of forces in Africa as part of Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s review of U.S. force posture around the globe, the top U.S. general in Africa, General Stephen J. Townsend, presented his assessment to the U.S. Senate that: “A secure and stable Africa is an enduring American interest.”

In the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, which serves as a guidance for the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. government prioritized addressing security challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as violent extremist groups. AFRICOM’s new strategic approach to secure its interests on the continent are guided by the following: partner for success; compete to win; and, maintain pressure on non-state actors.

I discussed this issue recently.

Indeed, this low priority in resources (the AFRICOM unofficial motto must be "Thank God for SOUTHCOM!") is one reason I advocated in Military Review for The AFRICOM Queen modularized auxiliary cruiser as a power projection platform for use around Africa. It would provide a mobile reserve to move the few assets where it is needed from over the horizon.

We need to be careful in allocating combat resources to our unified commands. With the small numbers involved, will reductions in AFRICOM in favor of EUCOM or INDOPACOM provide significant reinforcements to the latter two regions?

Or will those transfers simply cripple AFRICOM's ability to defend our interests and prevent big problems from emerging in Africa?

As an aside, when I wrote that Military Review article it was virtually verboten  to refer to any American "base" in Africa. In that lead article I link the American base in Djibouti is referred to as "the largest U.S. military base on the continent." Times change and I guess local sensitivities have faded (although I'm assuming reporter terminology reflects military source terminology. That might not be so).

And Reporters Need to Be More Informed. I Do Dream Big, Don't I?

Germany needs a bigger and stronger army. This is fascinating. Who knew Germany had a military that needs to be bigger and stronger?

Anyway, on that not big and not strong army:

German tank crews have of late been practicing with Volkswagen minibuses because as many as three in four of their Puma tanks are in the repair shop — or rather, they’re waiting endlessly to be repaired, owing to Kafkaesque bureaucracy. Ordering backpacks, bullet-proof vests, helmets, visors and all sorts of other gear can take years in the German army. About 20,000 job openings can’t be filled because so few young people want to enlist. Officers complain that standards are being lowered, and that new recruits are “fatter, weaker and dumber.”

This is all according to Hans-Peter Bartels, an ombudsman appointed by parliament to audit the country’s armed forces. Among his devastating conclusions this week was this simple observation: Germany’s army would currently be unable to contribute adequately to the collective defense of NATO, the Western alliance, if any member were attacked.

Yes, Germany should have an army able to fight the Russians. But I can't take the article author too seriously because he calls a Puma infantry fighting vehicle a "tank."

The Germans chose minibuses as Puma substitutes because the minibuses can carry the infantry squad that rides in the Puma.

How can Germany help defend NATO with the slightly ornery collection of civil servants they call an army?

How can people write "news" about things they simply don't understand?

UPDATE: This author has a good point and a way to see if Germany is serious about spending to meet the challenge of building the logistics to defend NATO:

Germany needs to be the key U.S. partner working on mastering this challenge. Here is why: The German ministry of defense estimates it will be 2035 before it reaches its 2% of gross domestic product spending commitment. The delay is not because Germany doesn’t have the money; it’s because the German military can’t efficiently absorb the massive increase in assets they would receive if Berlin met the original 2025 deadline. Over the interim decade, however, Germany should have the capacity to help build out the capabilities NATO needs to make Defender-Europe more credible.

Mind you, it is Germany's fault that their military is too weak to revive quickly. But it is a good point that meeting the goal on time might be a waste of money given the self-inflicted wounds of the German military.

But if the Germans aren't just defense freeloaders they'll be open to this kind of interim spending that NATO could say counts toward the spending goal until 2035.

Looks Can Kill

Army marksmanship has been a hallmark of our fighting this century so far: single aimed shots versus enemy "spray and pray" shooting. We're going to be better at that. So will enemies eventually. What then?

Precision shooting is coming to the infantry:

An Israeli company, working with Sig Sauer, recently showed a version of its high-tech, smart-shooter technology that the U.S. Army is currently evaluating in its Next Generation Squad Weapon Fire Control competition.

Smart Shooter Ltd. demonstrated its SMASH Fire Control System at a Sig-hosted range day for SHOT Show 2020. The SMASH is designed to help improve the accuracy of any shooter engaging stationary or moving targets in both day and night conditions, said Devin Schweiss of Smart Shooter Inc.

The SMASH "allows you to acquire, lock on and engage targets" using a weapon-mounted optic and special pistol grip that "allows the weapon to fire only when it's a guaranteed hit," he said.

I wrote about this trend on the Naval Institute Blog, and argued that enemies will also get the technology that allows you to kill whatever you can look at eventually. This will end the American advantage of fighting against "spray and pray" enemies who count on luck and volume of fire to hit anything.

I referred to SMASH-type fire as Dumb but Controlled (DBC). Eventually guided rounds will be the technology for precision rifles, and argued for multiple lanes of response:

The response to this technologically pushed development must take place in three realms:

1. Revised Marine boot camp training that exploits the Marine training advantage, without wasting time on marksmanship.

2. New technology to protect Marines and to better identify and target enemy super shooters.

3. Exceptional small unit leaders who exploit revised tactics based on revised training and new technology to nullify enemy super shooters and allow Marines to shoot first.

The change is beginning. Let's look ahead to adapt first.

Supporting the Fleet

The Marines are looking at adjusting Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) for the new anti-access/area denial A2/AD) environment that restricts large-scale amphibious invasions against opposition. And there is more:

But recently an entirely new formation was mentioned that could cause its own ripples across the force: a Marine littoral regiment.

“It’s looking at creating the Marine Littoral Regiment and how that’s going to resource and help make (Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations) successful,” said Maj. Gen. Mark Wise, deputy commanding general of Marine Corps Combat Development Command. ...

A retired Marine Corps officer now a senior adviser for the Center for Strategic & International Studies shared analysis at the same conference showing “no growth” for personnel in future Marine budget planning.

“Coastal defense, cyber, space,” Mark Cancian said. “They will have to take down existing capabilities to find the structure and the space to do that.”

The Marines have long been the most significant "allied" army to fight alongside the Army in expeditionary warfare. This shifts the Marines more to helping the Navy deploy, sustain, and fight.

I am on board attempts to get the Marines to adapt to A2/AD by spreading out in smaller units more useful for raids or small missions, as I wrote about in this article in the Naval Institute Proceedings (USNI membership required to access it online)--at least until naval and air dominance is achieved.

The idea of coastal defense is also an idea I'm in favor of the Navy or Marines adopting.I thought that in place of MEUs as the building block that Marine Expeditionary Companies (MECs) could be that basic unit for disaggregated operations under A2/AD threat. And some could be used for other purposes in support of expeditionary advanced base operations:

MECs also could carry out A2/AD missions. Prior to 1921, the Marines prepared “for the defense of advance bases and not for offensive landing operations.” Citing World War II experience, EF21 holds that the Marines must be capable of establishing and defending advanced bases while working with other services to “project power and control the sea.” This will allow the United States to “turn the A2/AD table” on an enemy by deploying weapons and sensors in a “network of numerous austere bases—by occupation or seizure—as a means of dispersing aircraft, missiles, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets” that deny an enemy the ability to operate in those waters and in that air space. Such advance expeditionary bases equipped with long-range strike, antiship, and antiair systems would function as “sea denial outposts.”

Such outposts—quickly established and abandoned as needed—could be used for forward arming and refueling points to support dispersed air operations ashore, making a transition between sea-based and land-based Marine air power truly seamless.

The Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) also should be part of the dragon swarm concept. The NECC could create island defense forces of mixed infantry, air defense, and antiship (tube, rocket, and missile) units. Their coastal riverine force patrol boats also would contribute. Used in place of MECs, NECC coastal defense units would hold small islands and force an enemy to operate in an A2/AD environment.

So I was looking at more than just the Marines. I thought the NECC as the Navy's truly in-house ground force should have a role in these missions.

I'm assuming that creating the Marine Littoral Regiment is all about organizing these outpost forces.

NOTE: EF21 is a basic doctrine document.

What Shall Phase IX in Iraq Look Like?

How shall we win the current phase--the ninth--in the Iraq War? Will it be a military or societal main effort?

I described the five phases of the Iraq War in this "Iraq SITREP" post in December 2006, and speculated about the next two phases:

With all this in mind, we are now debating the form of Phase VI. It began this month and will likely be the last phase dominated by American combat operations. I estimate it will last no more than sixteen months.

Phase VII will be the Iraq phase with the Iraqi government taking the lead in fighting the insurgents. We will supply air power, special forces, and keep at least seven brigades of troops inside Iraq to deter conventional invasion. I only question the pace of our draw down in this phase. The main question is whether we break Sadr's forces and the other Shia extremists and make the Iraqi government's task easier. The second question is whether Syria and Iran will continue to support their side, perhaps escalating to direct intervention. The third question is whether the government will win by winning hearts and minds or by slaughtering enemies. This phase will last as long as it takes one side or the other to win. Iraqis can't go home. It will be victory or death and on this struggle will depend our image for resolve in the Long War. And whether Iraq serves as a beacon of hope for others or simply reflects the realist-level goal of flipping an enemy Baathist state to a friendly authoritarian state.

I was pretty close with my estimate of how long Phase VI, the last American-dominated phase that would be defined by the Surge and Awakening, would last. It ended with the American and Iraqi campaigns in Sadr City and Basra, respectively. Call it April 2008.

Phase VII went from May 2008 through December 2013. It was the phase dominated by Iraq that saw America turn over the fight to Iraqis, transition to a formal end of our combat operations in New Dawn (with 6 combat brigades recast as "advise and assist" brigades rather than 7 as I expected) in September 2010, and leave Iraq entirely in December 2011, leaving Iraq in victory as both the president and vice president boasted. I call the end of that phase as December 2013 because in January 2014 the jihadi enemies began taking ground in Anbar, Iraq, culminating in the collapse of Iraqi security forces across the northwest Sunni Arab regions in June 2014, leading to the ISIL caliphate spanning eastern Syria and western parts of Iraq.

Phase VIII was the rise of  ISIL in Iraq and our re-intervention to defeat the Islamic State caliphate in September 2014, what I have called Iraq War 2.0. America organized a coalition to defeat ISIL that unfortunately undid the work of Phase VI that included the defeat of Iran inside Iraq by allowing Iran to return to Iraq in 2014 to fight ISIL. The liberation of Mosul by June 2017 when the ISIL defenses were broken signaled the end of Phase VIII and the beginning of a new defense of what we achieved.

So call it Phase IX to defeat Iran in Iraq since July 2017. Iraqi protests against corruption and lack of effective government and services began in 2018 and continue despite extensive violence directed by the Iraqi government and encouraged and enabled by Iran which wants to keep and deepen its foothold in Iraq.

What we are doing is not working.

The question is, should American tactics shift--again--to deal with the new threats that the tactics appropriate for the last phase no longer no longer work for the existing threat and the fragmentation of Iraqi governance into virtual fiefdoms based on tribes, militias, and political parties:

Humanitarian programs in the fields of education, health and job skill training are desperately needed in Iraq. While military training programs budget could (and probably will) be cut, a Works Progress Administration (WPA) type program may be a viable solution for addressing endemic problems in Iraq, without the use of outside military and civilian contractors.

The WPA employed millions of American citizens to build sustainable infrastructure, learn skills and earn income for their family, savings and discretionary spending. This type of temporary program implemented in Iraq, would cost less than building, arming and training (yet again) Iraq’s military.

Moreover, no nation can maintain its existence as any form of “democracy” without an educated population and qualified leadership. Instead of supporting training for the military and law enforcement, an allocation of funds could go toward partnership for teacher training, curriculum and materials development, counseling for those children affected by Daesh/ISIS indoctrination and those suffering from post-trauma reactions and victimization. These projects could expand the horizon of adaptable systems for different communities within Iraq and encourage networks as well as exchanges for educators in other Arabic and English-speaking countries. The United States could supply them with a first round of instruments of mass instruction in a range of subject areas, at a lesser cost and greater lifetime use than arms/weapons sales.

Of course, we'd have to prevent such aid from being dispensed by the fiefdoms to benefit their own loyalists. But I'm open to something like this in pursuit of new tactics appropriate for the new phase of war we are facing in Iraq.

Work the problem.

UPDATE: This article says that Iraq is "stuck in the middle" of the US-Iran conflict.

That's not quite the way I'd frame it, to say the least. Honestly, the piece seems like another effort in the long left-leaning genre of "fighting back just makes things worse."

Iraq is one objective in the US-Iran conflict. And working the problem there should be for the purpose of getting Iraq fully on our side to fight and defeat Iranian influence in Iraq--and not cushioning Iraq's discomfort as if they are an unfortunate bystander in a conflict that has nothing to do with Iraq.

China's Marines

An author argues what I have long argued about the Chinese marines--they are not intended to invade Taiwan. Which means measuring China's amphibious threat to Taiwan by counting the marines and dedicated lift does not reflect the Chinese ground threat to Taiwan.

Yes:

The PLAN Marine Corps is currently moving toward modularization and combined arms formations, characterized by more flexible operational structures. In terms of PLANMC changes in operational concepts, traditional tactics and fighting methods are no longer applicable. The new force structure and operational concepts of the PLAN Marine Corps will offer it a greater role in protecting Chinese interests abroad, in a variety of terrain types and climate conditions—as well as making it a valuable counterpart to PLA Army amphibious forces in island landing scenarios involving the South China Sea or Taiwan.

I agree. I've long argued that defining the Chinese ground threat to Taiwan in relation to the marines is a red herring.

Expeditionary warfare on small islands or across the Indian Ocean on land are their missions.

Although I can think of one marine mission in particular (and this is another) in regard to invading Taiwan that would be very valuable.

Otherwise, look to the PLA Army to hit Taiwan when the trigger is pulled.

Navy Still Unclear on the Concept

The Navy is having problems defining what to build to get to a 355-ship fleet, and the related issue of how those ships will fight needs to know what those ships will be:

The Navy also planned for the new force structure to implement the evolving operational concept of Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) — having many sensors and shooters, widely dispersed, all linked through a network. (Breaking D readers know that, although the Navy doesn’t like to talk much about multi-domain operations, this will have to be one of their main contributions to it.) This concept, with its implication for building more numerous, smaller, and more vulnerable platforms, breaks with the Navy’s previous operational concept that concentrated capabilities in a small number of extremely capable, but extremely expensive, carrier battle groups.

Ah, DMO is the concept term of art for something I've been droning on about--pre-TDR--since it was network-centric warfare.

Under the conditions of today’s platform-centric warfare, dispersal weakens a force and makes it slow to respond and mount a concentrated attack. In order to concentrate effect in an attack with platforms, forces need to be collocated or, if dispersed, near the enemy (or collocated with or near the friendly asset to be defended). Aircraft carriers overcome this problem of delivering massed effect by collocating a powerful air wing on a mobile airfield that, on its own, can deliver strong blows. While a carrier may be assisted by outside sensors and weapons systems, the carrier's and associated battle group's organic capability to fight enemy assets is substantial and greater than any other individual naval platform. Before Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles entered service with the fleet’s escorts, the carriers were the sole means of offensive action and represented “the highest value seaborne target against which an enemy could aim.” These newer weapons allowed any surface action group to conduct offensive warfare.

According to the United States Navy, the basic advantage of network-centric warfare is that the Navy will be able to deploy widely dispersed units that mass effect in a timely manner without needing to mass the components themselves, as platform-centric warfare requires, for coordinated action. Superior surveillance, communications, mobility, and weapons effectiveness and range will allow this geographic dispersal of units. Even before the dawn of network-centric warfare, the widespread deployment of surface-to-surface missiles throughout the Navy made the aircraft carrier an important asset rather than one vital for offensive missions. By allowing all the units in the network to fight as a physically dispersed but tactically unified force, networks will make the carrier platform’s ability redundant. Concentration of effect will no longer rely on concentration of forces. In addition to the evident offensive value, this characteristic has defensive value by reducing the footprint of our forces, thus avoiding giving the enemy an attractive, high-value target. Dispersed small units that can fight as one yet remain dangerous despite the loss of even many of the individually less capable platforms will confound the enemy's efforts to deliver a decisive strike against the Navy.

Now we have DMO, which dashes my hopes of getting the capability in our fleet before we got a new name for the concept:

I hope it gets to our fleet before it gets to the Chinese fleet. We've had concepts of "network-centric warfare," "cooperative engagement," the "tactical cloud," and "distributed lethality." Am I missing any? Could we get that capability before the Navy gets a new name?

Perhaps the Army will save the Navy for dropping the ball on the rail gun.

UPDATE: I'm hopefully up-to-date with concept terminology with this late addition of "kill web."

It is true that new technology that increases our naval capabilities should lead us to adjust how we count our ships to measure our naval capabilities. It is also true that gaming that definitions game has been used to hide reductions in naval capabilities. What to do?

Maybe we should count the launch cells on our ships, with a definition that considers ease of reload and how you define aircraft on an aircraft carrier as more easily reloadable "launchers."

As I recall, near the end of the Cold War the Army was defining its division power, in part, by the number of anti-tank weapons, and was aiming for 1,000 anti-tank weapons per division able to absorb and destroy massed Soviet tank attacks. So there is that precedent.

We need the concept in the fleet before we get a new term for the concept. Seriously. Now.

Weekend Data Dump

A pro-Iranian government (if not actually affiliated with Iran's mullahs) lobbying group, the National Iranian American Council, is back in action to defend Iran and recruit Americans to their banner. No doubt, given that the Iran nuclear deal Echo Chamber Band already got back together. And as that first article notes, the two worked together to get the awful Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Tip to Instapundit.

Wow! Kudos to that pilot for getting the plane down safely. Tip to Instapundit.

Iranian nutball president Rouhani is right that the Guardian Council's decision to bar candidates for office in Iran is a threat to democracy. But that kind of screening of candidates is business as usual in Iran, which observes the form of democracy without actually having democracy. If that horrifies Rouhani, wait until he finds out what other powers the Guardian Council has! Isn't it odd how thug rulers go to great lengths to appear to have Western-style democracy?

Have no doubt, the New York Times "1619 Project" is pure BS. It isn't history. It's propaganda. Anti-American propaganda. The Russians probably figure they don't need to interfere in the 2020 election with that abomination doing their work for them.

An interesting book review in the "why (post-World War II) America loses all its wars" genre. You know my view on that genre. Heck, I addressed that book twice, I see.

Yeah, support for Ukraine in America is just fine. As it should be.

I suspect the latest media declaration of a "bombshell" from John Bolton against Trump will, like all the others, be a dud or actually inflict collateral damage on the Democrats. It's like toddlers playing with firecrackers and matches.

I am disgusted with Europe's reaction to the just killing of the Iranian terror mastermind Soleimani, but I don't think that means Europe is useless to the Western alliance. America was late to World War I and World War II. We were still useful to the Western world. Let's not go overboard on complaining about our allies. They seem more cooperative than a lot of the modern Democratic Party, truth be told.

Fiscal shortfalls are crippling India's naval expansion plans. But don't forget their dysfunctional defense industry for a share of the blame.

Poland will buy F-35s.

Well that's just all kinds of stupid.

Last week I noted that American forces halted a Russian convoy heading for oil fields we protect in eastern Syria. Apparently that was the fourth time Russia has tried that.

My opinion is that every day that people think that Hillary Clinton might run for president and somehow return to a position of influence is another day that she can cash a check from people hedging their bets that she might win and take vengeance on those who abandoned her.

I noted that if Trump is impeached and removed from office for apparently reading his mind about why he is carrying out a foreign policy objective, no president can carry out their duties in the face of a hostile Congress. President Trump unveiled a Palestinian-Israel peace plan. How did AP frame that? "Trump looks to boost 2020 bid with peace plan, Jersey rally[.]" So the peace plan is about benefiting him and his reelection campaign? It's no different than his New Jersey rally? No doubt achieving peace will help Trump, but really? This isn't a foreign policy objective that has long been pursued by past presidents? What success isn't a help and what failure isn't a drag on reelection? And for God's sake, please let this be Peak Stupid in this insane line of thinking.

Can ATR-MCAS with enough data and processing power predict enemy battlefield intentions?

The precarious position of modern Mongolia. I find it amusing that the Mongol blood-filled history of rampaging across Europe and Asia is called "a proud cultural history dating to the founding of the Mongol Empire (1206-1368)." In 600 years will people be speaking of Germany's proud cultural history dating to the founding of the Third Reich?

I find it hilariously illustrative that only Von der Leyen has her face concealed in the group photo.

"Unanticipated" collateral damage. "We're from the government and we're here to help" really should scare if you if didn't ask for help. On the bright side, maybe one result is that China stole a lot of crap from us. Tip to Instapundit.

Last week I observed, "Democrats have dialed their frothy Resistance up to 11 since before the 2016 election. Impeachment puts it to 12. What will they be like in October?" Perhaps I worry too much. Is impeachment Peak TDS? Remember, you can dislike and/or oppose Trump without being deranged.

Keep in mind that the House Democrats picked their best case against Trump in their impeachment articles and claimed it was overwhelming. But they insist they need a fishing expedition of witnesses to make the case in the Senate. Okaay.

When that fails there will be a Coronavirus buyback program. Tip to Instapundit.

Despite claiming that Trump's delay of anti-tank missiles going to Ukraine (where they went into storage in western Ukraine) was a grievous harm to American national interests, three of the House impeachment managers voted against that military aid. Fancy that.

This practice caucus reveals that Bernie supporters are unclear on the concept of "persuading your party allies." That attitude will go over well during the real thing, eh? Treating fellow(?) Democrats as deplorables isn't the path to success. Tip to Instapundit.

This is small progress that hopefully indicates a trend. I have never liked civil forfeiture laws which target the poorest. That state power should be reduced, and until then the revenue should go to state general funds to reduce the incentive of police agencies to pursue civil forfeiture. Tip to Instapundit.

"Tactical" nuclear warheads have gone to sea on our Trident missiles. I don't like that. Not because it makes nuclear war more likely because it looks like we are ready to fight a small-scale nuclear war. If our enemies have the capability and we don't, a one-sided nuclear war is more likely. If Russia grabbed NATO territory and then threatened to use nuclear weapons to deter a NATO mobilization and counter-attack, what would we do? We have to be able to match an enemy to deter them. I oppose tactical nukes on our SSBNs in part because enemies might see a launch from the ocean and assume it is a full-size nuke, and then make a bad decision to use their own large nuke rather than wait to see if it is "tactical" or "strategic."

The Palestinians are angry at the US proposal for a two-state solution alongside Israel? One, they're always angry about something.  And two, the deal might be something that Israel can just unilaterally do. This may be more about dumping the Palestinians as too much bother to govern. If the Palestinians reject the deal the only thing they might be rejecting practically speaking is $50 billion in aid, a UN seat, and cooperation with Israel to help make things better for the Palestinians. Is Iran going to bail the Palestinians out? Even if Iran under sanctions could afford that, are the Palestinians unaware of the way Arab deals with Iran work? (After I wrote this I see that Scott Adams recognized the same aspect of not requiring the Palestinians to carry this out.)

China is going to get their student nationals expelled from America if they keep up this "thousand grain of sand" and campus Confucius Institute espionage hubs approach to espionage against America.

The United States has asked Iraq for permission to put Patriot missiles in Iraq to guard against a repeat of the Iran missile barrage that hit our bases and injured some of our troops from the blast concussion effects.

This article looks at Iran's network of proxies and allied groups. To be fair to Iran, they don't just want to fight Israel to the last Arab--Iran will happily sacrifice Afghanis and Pakistanis, too, in order to achieve the mullahs' objectives.

I think the question is too passively generic to be useful. Better for Moslems to ask what did they do to themselves. And calling pre-revolution Iran and Saudi Arabia "friendly rivals" is ridiculous. You can say that the rivalry was constrained because America was a friend of both Saudi Arabia and Iran under the shah. But who would say that Greek-Turkish relationship was anything but constrained for being NATO allies?

American and Iraqi forces have resumed joint anti-ISIL operations. So much for the brief post-Soleimani expulsion panic, I guess.

Is it just me seeing this or are a lot of pro-impeachment people grossly misinterpreting one particular Dershowitz defense of Trump's actions in the Ukraine phone call? I heard it and did not take it as a defense of doing anything that might help the president's reelection if the president thinks his reelection is good for the country. That is indeed a really bad standard. My reading of the defense is that if you are going to--as the Democrats have done--charge that an otherwise legal action is illegal because you somehow know the president's motive is purely political, you have to abandon that charge because a lot of things are perfectly legitimate as a matter of policy and will also benefit the president politically without reducing the policy legitimacy. That's it. Which does not seem like a bad standard at all. Indeed, convicting contrary to that standard is what seems like a really bad standard to me.

The F-35 gains fans.

The LCS is not as cheap as it was intended to be (shocking, I know), but I'd still rather have these less capable ships forward showing the flag just in case they are also the first targets of an enemy bolt-from-the-blue surprise attack. So, good: "Currently the plan is to have six LCS ships based in the Western Pacific, including three at Singapore. Another seven will be based in the Persian Gulf (Bahrain)." If the modules ever work, the good-on-paper LCS will be a flexible ship despite the higher cost. And on the bright side, that whole "brown" and "green" water deployment nonsense is apparently over.

In regard to Putin's plans to jumble the Russian government to let him stay in power, Putin says he will "give voters a say" on the issue. I believe him. Putin will absolutely give to the voters exactly what to say on that question.

The Wuhan Flu coronavirus may be nothing, but we need someone in charge of our response just in case. Here are some factors involved in the virus. Tips to Instapundit. Also, the virus is not a bioweapon that escaped into the wild.

I have no problem with the House of Representatives trying to claw back war-making powers from the president. Practically speaking, however, I think it is all about politics and trying to score points against the current president. Which doesn't make the effort illegal, of course. But really, this issue only gained urgency as Democrats bizarrely reacted to the fully justified and fully just killing of Iran's terror master Soleimani. The issue of war authority is complicated even apart from politics.

Why should Afghanistan be  a place that is an exception to Iran's efforts to kill Americans?

AFRICOM says that Iran is seeking to kill Americans in Africa. I admit I was suspicious of the Kenya attack recently: "Al Shabab's aggressive language and expansive threats to America after their attack on a joint US-Kenyan airfield in Kenya makes me wonder if the Iranians have pushed the Somali terror group to go after America."

We keep passing their deadlines for saving the planet. Shouldn't we either just give up and enjoy ourselves because it is too late or question their doomsday credibility? But as long as the fear merchants' fans continue to accept the "never minds" and new doomsday predictions, their gravy trains will continue showing up. Tip to Instapundit.

I wish Democrats were as doggedly determined to defeat our enemies abroad as they are to get rid of Trump without bothering with an election in November 2020.

And I want PETA replaced by AI, so neither of us will get what we want.

A number of countries are willing to work with the American proposal for an Israel-Palestinian peace plan. Look, trying to split the difference between destroying Israel and not destroying Israel has proven to be difficult to negotiate between the Palestinian leadership and Israel for many decades now. Maybe that game has to end to have any hope for moving on.

So ... there aren't enough Virus Americans involved to keep the perspective of the coronavirus front and center?

They've got to be effing kidding.

I've long been conflicted about General Michael Flynn. I did not know enough about him to have a solid opinion. If he lied to his bosses that was bad, but it seemed like he was being railroaded just to have a Trump scalp as a trophy. I began to suspect he really was given a raw deal about a year ago. And not it seems clear that my belated suspicion was right as were a lot of his supporters all along.

I've already heard about problems with the F-35 gun. It's still a problem. I'm not too worried because the plane isn't really designed to dogfight and I never expect the plane to strafe ground troops. Still, it would be nice if it worked as a last resort in self defense or to knock down non-combat warplanes without wasting a missile.

The United States will loosen up our restrictions on using landmines. Good. Before this we only reserved the right to use them to defend South Korea. Despite the widespread ban by a lot of countries that don't have or need landmines or don't misuse them in ways that kill civilians, bad actors still use them. That's the problem with the international agreement. And while our restrictions could be excused in the post-Cold War era, in the era of great power competition I'd like the ability to use manually placed or artillery- and air-delivered scatterable mines to halt or at least slow and degrade massed Russian armor and infantry.

Yes, Burkina Faso is playing with fire by training and arming civilian local defense groups to defeat jihadis. But that's a long-term problem that would be moot if the jihadis collapse the country because its military is unable to defeat the threat. That said, the local defense groups will need to be disarmed when the crisis passes and the military can handle the reduced threat. Once the threat recedes such armed groups can become private armies or gangs that pose a threat to the government and people. But one problem at a time.

Democrats have been trying to nullify Trump's election, starting with trying to get Trump Electoral College delegates to refuse to vote for him; and continuing with various impeachments charges or other ploys since he took office. What will they do after their actual flimsy impeachment case is rejected by the Senate despite their bizarre insistence that they overwhelming proved it (and by the way they want more witnesses than they interviewed secretly in the House to make their overwhelmingly proven case even more overwhel--wait. What?)? Their more unhinged followers could get out of hand.

I'd tighten security around the president. Because some of his opponents are seriously unhinged.

Given that the Treaty of Paris ending the American Revolution actually named the several states as the parties Britain was recognizing as independent as part of America (and even Americans didn't start thinking of America as the United States instead of these United States until after the Civil War), could Britain have pulled a slick move and declared war only on certain American states in 1812 in order to split apart an America divided on war with Britain? That never occurred to me until now.

English is a veritable rainbow of languages already, so I don't want to here another disparaging word about how Americans don't bother to learn other languages. Tip to Instapundit.

The global economy is taking a hit on fears of China's isolation from the global supply chain. But consider that while each country takes a hit from losing trade with China, China loses trade with everyone. That's gotta hurt. That might accelerate the industrial flight from China to other low-cost producers. And while Hong Kong protesters may not want to gather because of the coronavirus, harming the protests, maybe cutting off the mainland (tip to Instapundit) is kind of a virus-based declaration of independence, eh?

I've noted before that the 2016 election featured a formerly Democratic brand new Republican taking over the Republican Party and a never Democratic actual Socialist almost taking over the Democratic Party. And now we see Sanders the Socialist who seems to hate the Democratic Party (with justification considering the party rigging needed to heave the desiccated political carcass of Hillary Clinton across the primary finish line in 2016) seemingly having control of the Democratic Party within his grasp. This article isn't about that but does mention it. Still, given that commie-loving Bernie would push hard to be an autocrat "to save the planet" I hope the Democrat Party succeeds in a new round of "stop Bernie."

I don't know why this ship's mission is called a Freedom of Navigation Operation by the article author when the Navy clearly called it Innocent Passage. They are different and it is complicated as to what should be done.

It looks like we nailed the top scumbag in charge of Yemen's branch of al Qaeda. One more good jihadi, I hope.

Leadership has a point that special operations needs to police its own given some recent issues with behavior. But the special operators have a point that their job is to be mean and to kill our enemies. Stopping the special forces from being effective killers is dumb in wartime when results are more valued--and when the operators are more focused on the mission of killing--than satisfying Miss Manners. The effort may simply reflect that the leadership in Washington thinks we are effectively at peace and not at war. On the bright side, maybe we're getting closer to seeing the struggle as the Global Troubles. Just balance the behavior and the results, okay?

I don't believe Hillary Clinton would run as the vice president with Biden. Biden would not run the risk of "committing suicide" in his third week in office with a very sad note left behind about the pressures of the office being too much for him.

It is kind of funny that Brexit and the election of Trump have both been described as revolts against the elites. And Brexit Day and Trump's acquittal in the impeachment take place within days of each other.

Iran is boasting about their expensive underground ballistic missile "hangers" to protect missiles from air attack. Strategypage notes, as I have, that the entrances (and air vents) are still vulnerable to destruction by precision weapons. As I've asked, aren't these just tombs waiting to seal in the personnel manning them? They better have tunnel digging equipment inside with local power and oxygen. ISIL thugs apparently got a boost to their belief that Allah was protecting them when fuses to our penetrating bombs failed to work. We hope new versions work better. But if jihadis thought Allah protected them, why not build above ground? Just asking.

Heh:


Juan Guaido is still trying to get international support for getting the thug dictator Maduro out of office and hopefully end the slow-motion destruction of Venezuela.

Bravo, Professor Andrew Parker, simply magnificent.

People on the left like to (wrongly) say that Republicans are racist and puppets of the rich. Never mind that when candidate Obama spoke in 2008 of "bitter clingers" who might be uncomfortable with an African America as president he was speaking of Democratic primary voters. The Democratic debate stage has become rather white, based on voter preference in polls. The Democratic Party would not change the rules to achieve diversity. And now it is getting richer as the Democratic Party has changed the rules to allow another white billionaire, Bloomberg, to be on the next stage. Huh. The party elders really don't want socialist Bernie Sanders to stage a hostile takeover of the party, do they? I don't blame them. But how will Bernie's supporters take that?

Iraq has a new prime minister. The protesters who reject corruption and Iranian influence have a scalp. We shall see if he is any better at combating corruption and Iranian influence that is wrecking Iraq's chances for prosperity and stability.

Learning to live with GPS jamming and spoofing.

The French government continues to quietly ignore and beat anti-government protesters that persist in coming out to demand better opportunities.

I assume nothing on the Senate impeachment vote considering that leftists have attacked legislators before in recent history. Will some lunatic think he or she is acting to save democracy as so many on the left seem to bizarrely believe?

On the other hand, I have some hope that if Wednesday arrives and the vote for acquittal still looks solid that a good number of Democratic senators will join the almost if not totally uniform bloc of Republican senators in dismissing the charges. It would be a good signal in defense of some future Democratic president that partisan impeachments on trumped up charges are out of bounds as far as the Senate is concerned. That would be a fine tribute to the world's greatest deliberative body, I think.

I don't know if it is an iron-clad rule, but it sure seems as if the more city governments waste time on issues outside of their authority the worse they do on issues actually under their authority. Tip to Instapundit.

I used to like Bill Kristol. I can understand disliking Trump. I certainly have a history of that. I can understand wondering if his inner liberal will come out at some point. I worry about that (but the Democratic insane opposition has pushed Trump to be more conservative than he otherwise would have been, I believe). But I cannot understand the idea that Democrats and their policies are better than what a suspect and somewhat dick-like Trump has actually been doing on policy. I may think that Jonah Goldberg gets some of his criticisms of Trump wrong, but I do believe Goldberg at least is trying to call balls and strikes. He is worth reading and hearing. I'm not sure what Kristol is doing, and I just don't care. Tip to Instapundit.

(Misplaced) guilt, cowardice, and virtue-signaling. 

Who is Tired of War?

Talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a ceasefire line agreement. But does it mean Russia is giving up or that Ukraine is giving up?

That's new:

Ukraine and Russia agreed to move back more of their forces from the current front line in eastern Ukraine (D0nbas). In early December there was an agreement to exchange prisoners and continue discussing measures to reduce the violence, most of it instigated by Russian-backed Donbas separatists. Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have agreed to meet in Germany during April to continue negotiations to end the Donbas stalemate and resolve the problems there.

Apparently Russia has lost its appetite for further confrontation in Ukraine. There have always been some Russian leaders who backed leaving Donbas, and maybe even Crimea, to get the sanctions lifted. Ukraine wants all its territory back. That is a hard sell for Russian leaders, who spent a lot of money seizing and later subsidizing Crimea and Donbas, in addition to the even larger economic costs of the sanctions.

But what does it mean? Does it really mean Russia is getting out of Ukraine? Or even just the eastern Donbas?

Or does it mean Ukraine is giving up trying to retake the Donbas? Ukraine has been conducting a nearly subliminal counter-offensive for some time now.

Will Russia try to exit Donbas without giving up Crimea? Would Ukraine admit the loss of Crimea to get back the eastern Donbas?

Or is Ukraine content to reduce the casualty rate with this agreement while refusing to cut a deal with Russia that would end Western sanctions and let Russia come in from the cold?

When the Rulers Despise and Distrust the Ruled

This is a good summary of the rationale for and plan to reach the European Union (EU) proto-empire:

The founding principle of the EU was the unification of hitherto warring nations into a single bloc, built around common economic and political principles and a common European identity. The assumption was that given Europe’s history, putting aside differences was a self-evident need for all European countries. [emphasis added]

I have long ridiculed that rationale for creating the EU:

The EU elites believe that the public led them to slaughter each other again and again? In Europe's long history of warfare, do they really think that too much democracy was at fault? ...

It is pure rot, of course. The elites are pretending that the public is bloodthirsty and that only erasing democracy in a smothering European bureaucracy can prevent future bloodshed.

Imagine that, the Europeans looked to their past, noticed that the rulers of Europe often rallied their publics into repeated wars against each other and the rest of the world, and concluded that the key failure in this is their own public that failed to stop the leaders! Never mind that it was the leadership that led Europe to fight. I just want to know how putting an elite that has been prone to war back in complete charge will end European wars? Isn't this recreating the Europe of divine right rulers that created the bloody swath that Europeans cut across the globe?

The EU elites may wrongly actually believe they are preventing war in Europe--although America's presence as the leader of NATO rather than the EU has been the factor successful in preventing great power war since 1945.

But no matter, the EU will destroy independent nations within Europe and stifle democracy and freedom for Europeans to make them subjects rather than citizens in order to keep those bloody-minded peasants from forcing their social betters to wage wars in Europe.

How convenient for the Brussels-based apparatchiki class.

But the nations that make up the EU resist a blandly illustrated currency-based Euro identity. But if the EU gets the power that the want, the imperial state will no doubt use raw power to make those unruly peasants get in line. It may not work, but it will be a bloody failure.

The EU is no friend of freedom, democracy, or America.

For Reciprocal Advantages and Mutual Convenience

Congratulations to Britain for finally getting to Brexit Day to escape the proto-imperial European Union.

This description of Brexit is BS:

“Brexit is a defeat, a rebellion against the concept that working together makes ­Europeans stronger,” German Marshall Fund fellow Rosa Balfour told the New York Times.

No, Brexit is a defeat for an imperial EU that makes independent countries mere provinces under the heel of the imperial class.

Britain can still work together with EU members through NATO and other multi-lateral deals, including bilateral deals with other independent (for now) European countries.

Brexit is in fact a glorious victory for Britain and for the proto-subjects on the continent who might draw comfort from this victory.

But I won't breathe easily until the transition period ends sometime late this year. The Brexit vote may be Britain's Fourth of July, but America's Declaration of Independence was just the beginning of true American independence.

Maybe this Brexit Day is like the Treaty of Paris formalizing independence from the imperial master.

... to forget all past misunderstandings and differences that have unhappily interrupted the good correspondence and friendship which they mutually wish to restore, and to establish such a beneficial and satisfactory intercourse, between the two countries upon the ground of reciprocal advantages and mutual convenience as may promote and secure to both perpetual peace and harmony[.]

That would be a true basis for working together rather than Britain being just one of a team of oxen yoked together for one purpose the EU driver determines.

But Britain didn't really accept our independence in 1783--and loomed over us in loyal Canada--until after the War of 1812--a.k.a. our Second War of Independence.

So let's see how the rest of the year goes--and what role Northern Ireland and Scotland play--and whether the EU really accepts the results, eh?

Heck, maybe the British need a failed European Union counter-attack to unify the parts of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland divided over Brexit and get their own "Era of Good Feelings" in the aftermath.

I wonder how the EU will react to a new America-British trade pact? Will the EU try to impose some sort of continent-based trading system to punish Britain?

History doesn't repeat itself, but it can certainly sort of rhyme sometimes.

UPDATE: Are these the first shots of the counter-attack or just stray shots from people who haven't got the word that the war is over?

European fugitives could seek to escape justice by fleeing to their home countries after Brexit, it has emerged.

Austria, Germany, and Slovenia confirmed they would not extradite their nationals to the UK during the 11-month transition period which starts tomorrow.

Yes, their laws require this. I guess the answer to my question will come from whether they close the loophole--which they knew was coming.

Still, Macron has decided to bolster the morale of the Resistance in Britain:

French President Emmanuel Macron plans to travel to London to award the city with France’s highest award, the Legion d’Honneur, on the 80th anniversary of General Charles de Gaulle’s June 18, 1940, appeal to the French Resistance from the U.K. capital.

“I am coming to London in June to award the city the Legion d’Honneur, in tribute to the immense courage of a whole country and people” during World War II, Macron said in a letter to “British Friends” released on social networks on Saturday.

Call me cynical but this sounds like a tribute to the Remainers who dominate London and not to Britain itself.

So there you go.

UPDATE: Heh:

The China Dream Exposed?

Will the Chinese people conclude that the only people the Chinese Communist Party values in the "People's" Republic of China are CCP members?

Huh:

China’s recent deadly coronavirus outbreak, commencing in Wuhan in early December 2019 and rapidly spreading throughout the country and world, demonstrates that dictatorship can exacerbate a disaster, whether it is naturally occurring or manmade, such as the Soviet Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak in 1979.

The pandemic is China’s Chernobyl. While the Chinese authorities initially reported about 800 cases and 25 deaths, that death toll in China has risen to 80 and the number of confirmed cases is growing by the thousands. Videos, texts and other information sent out from the epicenter through various outlets indicate the number of people exposed to the virus may be as high as 100,000. Videos show Wuhan hospitals packed with patients, people collapsing on the streets, and medical staff breaking down. ...

China’s actions compel damning conclusions about the behavior of the CCP. Local party officials could not contain the disease and evidently chose to lie about its scope and severity until the truth was exposed. These actions likely worsened the impact of the virus far beyond China’s borders.

And here's another analyst wondering about the political effect:

The coronavirus and its potential consequences of mass death expose the dictatorship's brittleness. If you prefer, substitute "incompetence masked by police intimidation and lack of free expression" for "brittleness."

Well, I mentioned something related to this recently:

China has confirmed the spread of a SARS-like coronavirus. This is potentially a world health problem. China has to be worried for more than the health angle, because you never know what will end the Mandate of Heaven.

Is it significant that (and this is a repeat of the "brittleness" source) Xi called the virus a "demon?"

While meeting with a World Health Organization official in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping conceded that the coronavirus epidemic presented "the Chinese people" with a struggle. "The epidemic is a demon, and we cannot let this demon hide," Xi said. Xi added that the Beijing communist government would "release information on the virus in a 'timely' manner."

How fragile is the popular--whether actively supportive or resentfully passive--consent in China to being ruled by the Chinese Communist Party?

And as an aside, is this possibility what Russia is relying on to avoid vassal status?

UPDATE: Secrecy kills:

A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.

In those weeks, the authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but didn’t broadly curb the wildlife trade.

Can it kill the CCP?