Is pulling army units out of Anbar province cities really going to settle things down?
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Tuesday announced the army would leave cities in Anbar province, apparently seeking to defuse simmering tension after security forces cleared a major anti-government protest camp. ...
He called on "the armed forces to devote themselves to... pursuing Al-Qaeda hideouts in the desert of Anbar" and for the army to turn over "the administration of the cities to the hands of the local and federal police," his office said.
Can police control the cities with the army out beating the bush? When we were fighting there, the cities were the battlefields. Why has that changed?
This at least seems wise, if overdue:
In another move apparently aimed at placating Anbar residents, the cabinet decided Tuesday to provide aid to the province.
The oil, trade and health ministries were to provide food, fuel and medical items, and other ministries would also give "support and necessary services to Anbar province," the cabinet said.
After enough Sunni Arabs flipped in the Awakening, the Iraqi government only needs to keep a good portion of them on board with the government. Why using oil revenue to keep the Sunnis divided (some will always pine for the Saddam glory days--Maliki's suspicion of the Sunni Arabs is not without a basis in reality)--hasn't been a no-brainer is a mystery.
So it is not too shocking that jihadis managed to push into cities of Anbar. On the bright side, Maliki hasn't managed to alienate all Sunni Arabs:
Some Iraqi tribes battled al-Qaeda-linked militants on Thursday after the jihadist group seized control of some parts of cities belonging to Anbar province, Al Arabiya correspondent reported Thursday.
The tribesmen were trying to stop the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) from further advancing in Ramadi city in the Sunni stronghold governorate, the correspondent said, adding that clashes were heard from a distance.
An interior ministry official also told AFP that ISIL militants were on Thursday in control of half of another city in Anbar, Fallujah.
That's great. Al Qaeda is advancing into Anbar province cities. That's even effing great, if I may be so bold to pronounce.
But at least there are still Sunni Arabs fighting against al Qaeda. So it isn't totally screwed up.
But since Sunni Arabs in parliament pretty much demanded what they got, I suppose Maliki had little choice--if you admit he can't go back in time and come to an agreement with the Obama administration to keep US forces in Iraq after 2011:
Iraq’s Shiite prime minister, seeking to contain Sunni unrest, called on his Sunni political rivals Tuesday not to withdraw from the government over the dismantling of a protest camp that led to deadly clashes in a major western city. ...
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Tuesday that the army will leave cities in Anbar. He called on the armed forces to “devote themselves to continue operations pursuing al-Qaeda hideouts in the desert of Anbar” but said the military would “turn over the administration of the cities to the local and federal police,” according to a statement from his office.
I suppose another bright spot is that Maliki isn't blind to Shia threats to his government:
The Interior Ministry spokesman, Saad Maan Ibrahim, told The Associated Press on Thursday that Wathiq al-Batat, the leader of the so-called Mukhtar Army, was arrested in Baghdad on Wednesday. ...
Al-Batat last year formed his Iranian-backed militia to protect Shiites from attacks by Sunni extremists. Earlier, he was a leader in Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades, which is not related to the better-known Lebanese Hezbollah.
Yes, Iran's pawns are a threat to Iraq, too. The Sunni Arabs will like it if Maliki shows he will defend Iraq against Iran, too.
Meanwhile, as Iraq struggles to endure caught between the war in Syria and Iran's ambitions, John Kerry seeks the Unicorn of his Nobel Peace Prize in the Israel-Palestinian issue:
US Secretary of State John Kerry met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday as he pushed a framework for Middle East peace talks, amid growing tension with the Palestinians.
Of course Kerry is in Israel.
Defend our gains from fighting in Iraq? Or pursue a deal between Israel and Palestinians who view the destruction of Israel as the only real solution to the crisis?
Duh. Like the Nobel Peace Prize people would reward peace in Iraq short of calling an al Qaeda takeover "peace."
So while we send Hellfire missiles and some drones to Maliki, don't expect us to really help Iraq win. Iraq is (still) essentially on their own.
Maliki needs to reach out to as many people as possible to organize them--again--into an alliance against the Islamists:
Maliki needs to implement a comprehensive counterinsurgency campaign such as the one that General David Petraeus implemented in 2007-2008 whose central feature must be outreach to the estranged Sunnis. The tragedy of Iraq today is that Maliki lacks the acumen to do that–and the U.S. lacks the leverage to compel him, because of the ill-advised pullout of American forces at the end of 2011.
Iraq isn't lost. But Iraq needs to change course to avoid renewed fighting. I'd hope that everyone is tired of fighting and dying after their history since 1980. But clearly not everyone is.
Hey, maybe Iraqis could ponder what a renewed sectarian war that doesn't involve America could look like:
More than 73,000 people were killed in Syria in 2013, the bloodiest year yet in the brutal civil war that began in March 2011, an NGO said on Wednesday.
That's more than half the total of the Iraq War between 2003 and when we left at the end of 2011. How fun.
So of course Kerry is ignoring Iraq, the last time the Nobel Peace Prize committee issue an award based on Iraq, it was to punish the man who would win that war.
Kerry is just playing the odds.
UPDATE: Iraqi forces and Sunni tribal forces have surrounded Fallujah and Ramadi but al Qaeda is still holding their ground:
As a concession, al-Maliki on Wednesday pulled the military out of Anbar cities to give security duties to local police, a top demand of Sunnis who see the army as a tool of al-Maliki's rule. But al-Qaida militants promptly erupted in Fallujah, Ramadi and several nearby towns, overrunning police station, driving out security forces and freeing prisoners.
Since then, militants have dug in in the cities, setting up checkpoints in streets and waving black al-Qaida banners. Al-Maliki called in military reinforcements and sought the support of Sunni tribal fighters, who oppose al-Qaida though they still mistrust the government.
Government official Dhari al-Rishawi told The Associated Press that clashes were still underway on Friday, saying the militants remain in control of Fallujah and some parts of Ramadi. On Thursday, government warplanes fired Hellfire missiles — recently supplied by the United States — at some militant positions.
Well, maybe getting their wish of having the national army out of their cities will give Sunni Arabs second thoughts about de-Awakening because Maliki's government isn't coming through like he is supposed to with revenue sharing.
Everybody needs to work through the system to keep violence from reigniting sectarian fighting.
