Weekend Data Dump

It's not "mobile" if it is dead. Unless "many" means many thousands of armored fighting vehicles that are semi-disposable, "light, mobile, and many" means "light, mobile, and dead." That is what light tanks mean on a modern battlefield. The urge is a recurring one that has reared its ugly head with the Army's Future Burned Out Hulk light tank project. Face it, the wonder tank won't be built. The cost of keeping heavy tanks in the field is indeed high--but it is worth it.

An array of nano-satellites can do the job of a big satellite for photo recon. Imagine hundred of these in orbit spread out, but which can maneuver into an array to carry out a mission? How do ground forces hide from that? Now attentive ground units can hide when known satellites are scheduled to come over them. What do they do against that capability? And could this be adapted on the ground for air defense? Stealth planes aren't actually invisible, remember. Although quantum advances in military fields (tip to Instapundit) could  be what really reveals stealth planes. But Lord knows where that tech will lead.

The British army is desperate for recruits and is now recruiting "snow flakes" and "seflie addicts" (tip to Instapundit). I know that there is a lot of mockery for this, but the British army does have a record of being able to effectively use "the scum of the Earth." Although isn't this soldier's decision a validation of the "snow flake" label?

The elephant in the room: what is wrong with Kansas Arab Islamic culture? As individuals, there is nothing wrong with them as most Arabs whether Moslem or Christian demonstrate when plugged into the American culture. Arabs are starting to confront the problem. Which ultimately is what can win the Islamic civil war that rages over who gets to define Islam--jihadis or people who just want to live their lives and leave other people alone. We need to support the good guys in that civil war while protecting our people from the collateral damage at the hands of jihadis that takes place in the West as a result of the civil war. Strategypage recycled some language without review because post-Saddam Iraq is no longer run by a Sunni minority. But other than that, read it all. Also, you can see how the Iraqi army rotted away so quickly between America's withdrawal in 2011 and the rise of the ISIL caliphate in 2014.

American liberals must have some serious France envy. Not only does France have a glamorous, sophisticated, and nuanced Macron as their president, France also has an actual resistance against a president seen as a heavy-handed dictator out of touch with ordinary people!

The United States isn't letting Iran participate in Yemen peace talks in Sweden. Good.  Iran wants to win there and no peace should include letting Iran get a win. Honestly, I don't know why we don't have a robust information operation against Iran that highlights that Iran is willing to fight to the last Arab in order to defeat Israel.

Brexit delayed is Brexit denied. Once there is no deadline for Britain leaving the EU, there will never be a deal good enough to resist the call for another delay to make it "better."

I know that I'm not the only person forced to use dial-up internet access or simply use a typewriter to send out printed newsletters since the end of "net neutrality" a year ago. Remember when it was the end of the world? And yet we'll all be fine.

An American destroyer sailed within 12 miles of Chinese islands in the South China Sea to challenge Chinese claims. It was called a "freedom of navigation operation" although no details about what the ship did indicate it is an actual FONOP rather than innocent passage. But we have started to conduct actual FONOPs in the current administration unlike past phony FONOPs, so I will assume we challenged China unless I read otherwise. Also, I seriously think our ships on these missions need overwatch in case the Chinese try to swarm it with fishing boats to foul a propeller and have their coast guard "rescue" the ship and crew by towing it to port. Perhaps we do that and it just isn't evident in the news. Seriously, don't let our ships conduct FONOPs alone.

It won't be long before we hit the 30th anniversary of American intervention in Somalia to enable famine relief (and, in my opinion, prove we didn't just intervene to save oil-rich Moslems as we did for Kuwait in the Persian Gulf War). There was mission creep, the Battle of Mogadishu ("Blackhawk Down"), and withdrawal before our current involvement with other allies to try to rebuild governance in Somalia and "mow the grass" by killing jihadis.  One would hope that we'd learn a lesson for Afghanistan that building a national government where no nation exists is futile. And for Somalia, too.

Forget the eye candy Armata. In Russia and especially in China, the T-72 remains the building block for the best tanks over there.

This is AWESOME! Tip to Instapundit.

I haven't been impressed with blockchain's claim of security since I have more faith in people being able to undermine what other people design. So, yeah, this isn't shocking.

Dealing with Iran's actions in any given area is treating a symptom. Going to the source to put pressure on Iran directly is far harder but ultimately more enduring. Also, the US is working to tie our withdrawal from Syria to the safety of our Kurdish allies in Syria. If we can harm Iran without being in Syria and shield the Kurds, we go a  long way to making withdrawal from eastern Syria a fully good idea. And let me add that our moral responsibility to the Syrian Kurds does not go as far as letting them use America to gain their maximum objective of independence. Ultimately our interests must be promoted.

Perhaps President Trump can legally use an emergency provision to divert funding to physical barriers on the Mexico border.  But as I've noted, too much is actually legal as President "phone and pen" Obama demonstrated. I opposed that tactic that abandoned traditional restraint and respect for separation of powers in favor of legalistic decisions. And I oppose it now even though properly defended barriers should be a part of controlling illegal immigration. Although I admit there is a problem if only Republican presidents abide by restraints while Democratic presidents do not. Perhaps this could be a rare point of agreement between the parties in Congress to eliminate or narrow all the provisions that allow a president to carry out quasi-legislative functions. I am a dreamer, I know.

If Israel is planning to hammer Hezbollah in Lebanon, it would be good to establish that any damage done to the Lebanese army in the operation isn't actually collateral damage after all, because it is an ally of Hezbollah now despite the Western aid to try and make it a counterweight to Iran's proxy force. Pity, I once hoped that the Lebanese army could take advantage of the destruction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to reassert Lebanon's authority in the region now run as a virtual Iranian province in some ways. Of course, I'm looking for dots in the picture I have already constructed. This likely means nothing even if I think it could be a clue.

Nigeria was unable to keep their victory over jihadis. The basic rule for dealing with jihadis is shoot on sight, shoot first, shoot to kill, keep shooting. Corruption prevented Nigeria from doing that. Not that killing jihadis is the only thing that must be done. Or even the most important in the long run. But it is job one.

More on the election fraud in Congo (DRC), which could cause the country to descend into mass violence (again) and drag the region into war (again). The government engineered a "win" by the minor opposition candidate willing to protect the corrupt ruler once out of office rather than declaring the president the victor. The trusted local Catholic Church rejected the announced results. So here we go.

Interesting: Marine LAVs on amphibious warfare ships could be used to track and attack small boats. Although on a moving and rocking ship, I imagine the TOW missile would work better than the 25mm gun. But on smooth seas the latter would be good to go, eh?

The Netherlands pulled their F-16s from Jordan where they participated in the anti-ISIL campaign.  That might be a good idea in case they are needed in the Caribbean Sea.

And yet I bear up with good humor and stoic endurance. Although Saudi Arabia's relatively good gender equality score may reflect that the men's satisfaction gap is due to their dissatisfaction with the women's education gap advantage. And of course you shouldn't celebrate if everyone is oppressed equally. Via Titania McGrath. Who is hilarious.

I'm confused at the outrage. I mean, NASA didn't actually find Nazis there, right?  Which is good. Because Space Nazis need to be found before they strike. Good luck to the Chinese.

Angela Davis is a communist bastard who colluded with the Soviet Russians and deserves no sympathy whatsoever.

Duterte worries me sometimes, but he is making progress in defeating the scourges of communists, criminals, corruption, and the caliphate in the Philippines, I must admit. Add the Chinese, who are stealing Filipino territory, to the list and it's a clean sweep.

The Seattle Resistance in action against Trump's Oval Office address?  If he is so awful naturally why feel the need to make him look bad? Tip to Instapundit. Oh, the staff member responsible has been fired.

If ASEAN opinion polls doubt American commitment to defend the South China Sea as international waters despite America's stepped up Freedom of Navigation Operations there in contrast to the innocent passage missions masquerading as FONOPs during the Obama administration, the Trump administration is clearly failing to convey our seriousness. If presidential tweeting is undermining his actions, he clearly needs to revise his messaging approach.

When you hate your audience it makes sense. Tip to Instapundit.

The European Union has been eager to undermine American sanctions against Iran. But Iran has such utter contempt for the Europeans that the EU is shamed into sanctions against Iranian mayhem in Europe.

We don't actually know if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than citizens. One, data is on non-citizens versus citizens. That is mostly legal immigrants, tourists, and other visitors. Since those people are pre-screened to keep out criminals, of course they are more law abiding than citizens who are here legally regardless of their criminal status. So lumping illegal immigrants into that category is not accurate, even if you don't count illegally coming to America as a crime. Two, "sanctuary" jurisdictions hide the crimes of illegal aliens by not reporting them or by downgrading their felonies to misdemeanors--and even downgrading felonies to misdemeanors in general. Three, even if illegal immigrants have a lower rate of crime, their presence increases the total crimes committed against people already here. Unless you plan to send into exile one American from groups with a higher rate of criminal convictions for every illegal immigrant admitted to America (and boy would that be "problematic"), we get more crime with illegal immigration. Via Instapundit.

And to be clear, I am in favor of a process to legalize those who came here illegally. I do not want people living here with no real ties to America and no reason to develop loyalty. But it should lengthy and difficult so as not to punish people who followed the rules to come here.  And anybody born here should be a citizen. But I am tired of legalization for immigration security deals that never get around to the security part. We should have broader controls over who comes here and stays--and crossing the southern border is just one part of that problem that includes overstaying visas and working illegally. So make a deal. But the deal has to be security first and then a process for legalizing residents.

I"m glad this false war crimes charge was reversed. But there was a decade of Hell for Marine Corps Major Fred Galvin and it will linger despite the correction. One good thing I will say is that our military has apparently adapted to fighting under the microscope of widespread battlefield surveillance and combat video without a lot more of these problems from outside accusers.

Western animal rights activists will no more condemn China for this threat to the elephants of Laos than Western Islamophobia activists spend much time condemning China for their Moslem gulags.

North Korea is in bad shape with hungry troops, hungry people squeezed to keep the hungry troops from getting dangerously hungry, and no interest in getting rid of their nuclear weapons program.

France told Iran to stop testing ballistic missiles capable of being used as nuclear weapons. I'd celebrate this but given the Iran deal experience, France seems like it only pressures Iran to cut a better economic deal with Iran.

American and allied forces have started to withdraw from eastern Syria--although apparently just some equipment so far--despite the uncertainty over the pace and scope of full withdrawal.

I lean to thinking there is nothing to the Trump-Russia "collusion" accusation because it doesn't make sense (Russia didn't think Trump could win any more than Trump believed he could win) and because nothing breathlessly billed as BOOM! the last two years has resulted in anything. And I'll add that "collusion" isn't actually a crime. I wish the Democrats had been as vigilant about working with the Soviets as they are suddenly worried about Russia. That said, if Trump (or more likely if there is something, some of his allies) did something wrong, of course there should be appropriate punishment. And please look to what happened to Bill Clinton for his campaign collusion with China and with Obama's campaign finance violations as guides. So given that we know nothing of substance, I can respect a wait and see attitude. One problem is that after two years of BOOM! that repeatedly turned into nothing, it will be hard to recognize any violation as serious, no?

I see Britney is overtaking Tiffany in the "traffic sources" links in my Blogger statistics as if online sex workers are suddenly interested in foreign affairs. I suppose I'm supposed to click on the "cam" links. Do these spam/malware traps actually work on anybody?

China slowly creates a submarine-based nuclear force, Russia's sub-based ballistic missiles stumble, and America's Trident rolls along. Although since nobody (but North Korea) actually detonates warheads these days, I wonder how long before errors creep in with the simulations to result in inoperative warheads in the major power arsenals?

Hopefully when American forces are out of eastern Syria we can still shield Iraq from jihadis having a potential sanctuary in eastern Syria, as they had during the Iraq War and which eventually resulted in the rise of ISIL there during the Syrian civil war which led to the loss of northern and western Iraq to the caliphate. Iraq has an interest in preventing a jihadi sanctuary, too, although it may involve closer relations with Assad's Syria. Which isn't necessarily bad if the effort pries Syria out of Iran's grip.

While I think the methodology is suspect--relying on assumptions of the proper base number when discussing Russian claims of percent changes in their nuclear arsenal--I do think we should worry about Russian cheating on New START limits on their strategic nuclear weapons.

Yes, the Zumwalt class "destroyer" (there is Navy grade inflation) is somewhat of a clusterf**k. But the capabilities shortfalls are the result of truncating the class at three ships making equipping it as planned too expensive; and the cost problem is also because of that decision which compels us to count the research costs for what would have been a large class of ships into just three hulls. Have no fear, the technology of the Zumwalt class will live on in future ships.

The Russian Su-57 isn't really intended to be fully stealth 360 degrees. But its frontal stealth and speed may lead Russia to think they can use it to dash in rapidly and kill our stealth fighters. But if one of our stealth fighters doesn't open fire and instead remotely fires the massed missiles of a B-1 bomber equipped with large numbers of anti-aircraft missiles, there goes that hope. The article says China is making fully stealth aircraft, but I thought their stealth plane designs are thus far also frontal stealth only.

I don't even want to hear about the "reality-based" community any more. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia lost control of their Spektr-R radio telescope satellite. Wait. What? SPECTRE is real? Next you'll be telling me KAOS is a threat, I suppose.

The Navy has a leadership problem, especially in the top tier 7th Fleet in the western Pacific. While these problems predate the Obama administration, his "pivot" to the Pacific was supposed to prioritize the military in PACOM (now INDOPACOM). What happened? And has Trump made a difference in 2018 after the very visibly bad 2017?

Ancient humans breeded with now-extinct humanoids? Tip to Instapundit. Yeah, that is not a shocker.

The U.S. is clearly stating our desire to help any Latin American initiative to deal with the "illegitimate" Maduro government in Venezuela, rather than being willing to take the lead.

Is modern Germany the best Germany ever? Well, a modern democratic Germany part of the West is certainly far better than the Germany that rampaged across Europe twice in the 20th Century, leaving death in its wake especially the second time.  So there is a case to be made that modern Germany is the best ever. However, I tire of modern Germans essentially denying they are better by saying their 20th century history means they can't be trusted with a military.

Our secretary of state is trying to protect the Kurds of Syria from Turkey with diplomacy given the intent to pull American troops out of eastern Syria.

Dogs and Cats Living Together--Mass Hysteria!

The countries that between them tried to conquer Europe three times have decided to work together to strengthen the continent-spanning European Union:

On Jan. 22, the leaders of Germany and France plan to sign a treaty aimed at bringing the bloc’s two most powerful economies – and its original founders – even closer.

What could possibly go wrong?

And I'm leaving out Charlemagne and the Holy Roman Empire because they really didn't get off and running for a truly continent-wide effort.

The proto-imperial EU is attempting to bind Europe together not with troops but with increasingly intrusive cheese regulations. And God help us, but it could work. Mark my words, if this project works the "proto" part will disappear and Europe will be dominated by two hostile powers--the EU and Russia. And those two will work out some sort of ... pact ... to reduce aggression between the two.

Oh, and this is kind of funny:

This “twinning” pact, negotiated over the past year, also calls for ministers to regularly sit in the cabinet meetings of each other’s government. It seeks greater unity in diplomacy and peacekeeping missions. France will push for Germany to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

One, I'm sure the Germans think their power will allow them to dominate France; and France believes it is clever enough to dominate Germany.

Wait, I've seen this movie.

But more importantly, the French push for a German permanent seat is pure theater (perhaps part of the cleverness the French imagine they have).

Russia will never grant a permanent seat to the country that invaded them twice in the 20th century. And the Russians aren't too happy about the Teutonic Knights, either.

And if France was really serious, they'd offer their own permanent UNSC seat (and veto power) to the European Union. Nothing would even need to be done to the UN charter. France could simply agree to allow the EU bureaucracy to decide when to use the French veto. A veto by proxy as I've suggested we could do for Japan or India, the only two states that deserve it.

But France will never grant their cherished status symbol veto to the EU no matter how much they want the EU to grow more powerful (in the belief they will dominate it).

And let's not get carried away win pan-continental solidarity and even bring up the question of turning France's nuclear force to the EU.

I used to like the EU--when it was the European Economic Community for free trade, and not a proto-empire that will inevitably become something less than an enemy but far short of an ally of America.

This article highlights why I worry about a Europe without American influence (originally from this post):

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

We really do need Europe in our team. Which is one reason I am a firm supporters of America's leading role in NATO and do not think the alliance is obsolete.

But Europe does have a role in keeping America in Europe by remaining worthy of defending--as we designed it to be. Which is why I so vocally despise the European Union.

We should not want the EU to develop a "closer union" as they put it.

Don't Be Mesmerized By the Bright Lights of the Big City

The Army and Marines are practicing how to fight in cities (and especially in "megacities," the flavor of the day). Which is good. But even better would be an exploration of why we should fight in cities and what objectives will be enough to achieve victory in a city.

This technical approach to urban warfare is certainly needed:

A recent Army and Marine war game that included engineers, academics and other defense representatives evaluated how troops could use experimental technologies to fight in dense urban areas and underground.

The U.S. Army Subterranean and Dense Urban Environment Materiel Developer Community of Practice is a working group that has conducted three prior workshops that set the challenges of fighting in those environments.

“Fighting in dense urban environments and the unique challenges it presents is still not totally understood, and this study was the front-end look at identifying and defining those materiel challenges to drive where investments need to be for this operational environment,” said Bob Hesse, technical lead coordinator for the Community of Practice.

The most recent “tabletop” exercise looked at the gear troops might need to get through those intense battle scenarios, according to an Army release.

But I think the technical and tactical question pales in comparison to the operational question:

Unless we are trying to liberate one of our own cities, why do we need to capture an entire enemy-held city? Unless it is the capital of a highly centralized state whose capture can reasonably be said to represent the final objective of winning the war, why do it?

If our purpose is to defeat the enemy army, I'd rather bypass an enemy force holed up in a city and let them wither on the vine. Treat the cities the way we treated Japanese-held fortresses in the Pacific during our island-hopping campaign in World War II.

If we do that, we just need to conduct limited military operations in the city to allow our forces to bypass the city. ...

We need to get back to the idea of "securing" a city as meaning making it secured enough to continue offensive military operations in pursuit of the objective--not that the city is full controlled, pacified, and functioning. We don't need officers who understand how a city works enough to just crush the latest version of SimCity. We need officers who understand how much of a city we need to control to continue the campaign.

We need to identify the key terrain in any particular city and match our operations to our objectives for the campaign. I'm especially speaking of a conventional war where the enemy army in the field is the real objective and a deadly and time-consuming city fight is a fatal distraction.

Also, as I have long believed (as I mentioned in this Joint Force Quarterly article) that the Marines are the natural home for urban fighting skills since it complements their traditional forcible entry from the sea mission (even if carrying that out is problematic given the vulnerability of the ships taking the Marines to the shore):

The Marine Corps is already light and has more flexibility to adapt to new strategic realities. It must abandon amphibious warfare as a core capability and embrace an expeditionary role based on urban warfare and air mobility to complement the role of the Army to fight heavy forces.

What is an urban fight but an amphibious operation against a defended shore but without getting wet?

In the Army, combat engineers should be the home of urban warfare expertise in case the Marines need help.

Never Mind. Drive On

I recently wondered if the new Army physical fitness test should be restricted to the combat arms who really need it because it seems difficult to achieve and administer. I could be 100% wrong on the former complaint, at least. Which leads us to recruiting.

Strategypage notes that the new Army fitness test is geared toward non-combat troops:

The U.S. Army, and the American military in general, have a growing problem with soldiers who are too overweight to stay in and a growing number of potential recruits (47 percent of men, 59 percent of women) who are too overweight to handle basic training and seem incapable of losing enough weight to qualify. ... The latest solution is the ACFT (Army Combat Fitness Test) which is based on combat experience since 2001 of all troops in combat zones. Most of those soldiers had support, not combat, jobs and the ACFT is mainly for them because the non-combat troops were initially the most unprepared for operating in a combat zone where ambushes, roadside bombs and mortar/rocket attacks on bases was more frequent than during earlier wars, even the 1965-72 Vietnam War.

So I reverse my opinion and will wait to see how the Army rolls it out to the troops. The issue of administering the test still exists, but any change requires adaptation and time, I admit.

It would be good if this works, of course.

In related news, the Army is looking for recruits in big cities where it traditionally hasn't gotten recruits:

For decades, Army recruiting has relied disproportionately on a crescent-shaped swath of the country stretching from Virginia through the South to Texas, where many military bases are found and many families have traditions of service. Young people there enlist at two to three times the rate of other regions.

By contrast, in the big metropolitan areas of the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast, young people are less likely to have a parent, teacher or coach who served in the military, which can be a major factor in deciding to enlist. And in those regions, many high schools openly discourage recruiters from interacting with students. ...

Army recruiting can be difficult in liberal-leaning cities in part because young adults are less likely than their red-state peers to know someone who has served in the military.

With more potential recruits too fat to enlist and succeed, the pool has to be broadened.

One problem is that the Army isn't seen as an option in the big cities, in contrast to that recruiting crescent where the Army has a presence.

To get the Army story out to potential recruits in the cities, in Army magazine I proposed a program in cities to create civilian combat lifesavers based on the Army course for soldiers.

The course would be a combination of Army history and traditions, instruction on courtesy and military bearing, and lifesaving skills that would be useful for the Army and in the civilian world even if the graduate does not enlist in the military and stays in their community. As a civilian that graduate of the course would be capable of responding to emergencies whether criminal, terrorist, or natural disaster.

And the graduate would be a source of information for peers who might be influenced by a friend who has a positive image of the Army from the course.

Some physical fitness aspect to get a potential recruit on the path to being able to pass the new physical standards would be helpful.

I know I benefited from a weekend mini-basic training course that the Michigan Army National Guard put me through before I went to actual basic. Let me tell you, I did push ups after that weekend. And in actual basic training I never experienced muscle failure when dropped. Others sure did to their regret.

So yeah, I think I was wrong to reject the new standards for physical fitness. Lord knows recruits need to be far more fit than the traditional recruiting pool is providing. And hopefully a bigger pool can provide more fit recruits. Or at least fit enough recruits.

Damn the Torpedos, Full Speed Ahead

If this works, it will save the surface fleet from obsolescence in the face of precision weapons and persistent surveillance networks:

Last summer USS Dewey (DDG-105) fired 20 hyper velocity projectiles (HVP) from a standard Mk 45 5-inch deck gun in a quiet experiment that’s set to add new utility to the weapon found on almost every U.S. warship, officials familiar with the test have told USNI News.

The test, conducted by the Navy and the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office as part of the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2018 international exercise, was part of a series of studies to prove the Navy could turn the more than 40-year-old deck gun design into an effective and low-cost weapon against cruise missiles and larger unmanned aerial vehicles.

You could potentially get rid of specialized missile defense systems if the guns can do this. If you had more guns on the ship. On existing ships this would just add to the defensive firepower.

No word on range.

And the Army and Marines could sure use it to with all their tube artillery, as the article notes.

And if it has the range, it could be used for offensive missions, too, in place of missiles, which the article also notes.

(I got excited about the potential and started writing about other missions before I got to the parts above that covered my speculation!)

Could we see warships without the vertical launch cells that cover the decks? Would more gun turrets--or even vertically fired guns embedded in the decks--and larger shell magazines for both offensive and defensive use?

Perhaps my worry about the rail gun is misplaced.

This Army Heavy is Good

By 2020, the Army will be a bit heavier:

The changes over the past few years and those coming up will put the Army at a total of 31 BCTs in the regular Army, comprised of 11 armored. 13 infantry and seven Stryker brigades once complete.

The Army National Guard will hold 27 BCTs, among them five armored, 20 infantry and two Stryker brigades. This gives the total Army 58 BCTs.

Also, the Army has rethought the idea of having divisions with multiple types of brigades in it. Even though the Army is brigade-centric with independently operating brigades, having sister brigades of the same type at the same base is still useful, for example, for sending a brigade off in emergencies.

I had missed that notion when it was the idea of the day.

The Army is smaller than it was pre-9/11 as far as brigade numbers. I think the combined total was more than 70 if memory serves me.

Although the brigades should be fully (or more) manned unlike the pre-9/11 under-strength brigades.

I suspect the Army is still too light for peer-to-peer. I'd like to see four more armored brigades in the active component.

And, as I argued in Army magazine, separate tank battalions or heavy task forces that can be attached to the Stryker and infantry brigades when needed.

For Want of a Nail the Kingdom Was Lost

The military has been ordered to rebalance its thinking and capabilities to conventional warfare against peer competitors. This is a problem:

The strategic American military system for moving troops, weapons, and supplies over long distances has decayed significantly and needs rapid upgrading to be ready for any future war with China or Russia, according to a report by the Pentagon's Defense Science Board.

A special task force on survivable logistics evaluated the military's current airlift, sealift, and prepositioned equipment and supplies and found major problems with supporting forces during a "high-end" conflict.

Even the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, while requiring a large logistics effort, didn't prepare our forces for the attrition and high rates of expenditure of ammunition and spare parts--and replacement of losses, all while under fire and losing some percentage of the supplies moved forward--that a conventional war would require.

And our ammunition shortage existed even before America shifted emphasis to great power competition.

My hope is that our enemies are worse off.

Also, if our supply capacity is deficient, that causes problems for our allies who need resupply from our stockpiles--and for our policy of keeping allies on a short leash.

Now We Can Have Bases in Africa

It wasn't that long ago that discussion of American "bases" in Africa was forbidden. I recall one testimony from the Pentagon calling the exception to the rule--the base in Djibouti at the Horn of Africa--an "enduring presence." Now AFRICOM will have bases:

Niger Air Base 201, a future hub for armed drones and other aircraft, was supposed to be completed this year. The region’s difficult weather and harsh conditions are pushing completion back to the middle of 2019, officials told Air Force Times.

Air Base 201 will eventually house the U.S. armed drone mission in Niger that currently operates out of Niger’s capital, Niamey.

In the Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia, a former Soviet-built air base called Camp Baledogle is being refurbished and converted to better handle the evolving multinational mission in the country.

Apparently African states are getting used to the idea. No doubt the jihadi threats are changing minds about the sensitivity of openly having American forces help them kill jihadis.

The ability to put bases on the continent reduces the need for my idea in Military Review for mobile bases based on container ship hulls using shipping containers to hold facilities, equipment, and weapons, which I christened The AFRICOM Queen.

Of course, one of my ideas for the modularized auxiliary cruiser was the ability to put some sets ashore for temporary land bases or missions. So now in addition to that, the ship could reinforce land bases.

And given the size of Africa, a mobile base that brings more of the littoral into range of American military power--in addition to other aspects of government assistance to African states--will always be useful.

The Question Isn't Platform, It's Priority

Pilots love the F-35 and it is probably superior to the A-10 for ground support. But that isn't the issue.

I'm relieved that the F-35 is turning out to be a really good plane:

A total of 174 U.S. pilots currently have been trained to fly Lockheed Martin’s F-35A Lightning II. The Heritage Foundation interviewed 31 of these former F-15C, F-15E, F-16C, and A-10 pilots. Each expressed a high degree of confidence in the F-35A, their new fifth-generation platform.

As long as the whole hacking issue is locked down, we're in good shape.

And this is not too surprising (from the linked article):

A former A-10 instructor pilot said the situational awareness aids associated with the sensor suite of the F-35A allowed pilots to execute close air support missions as well or better than the A-10 in low-threat environments. The F-35A is the only multirole platform capable of conducting close air support in high-threat environments.

I even conceded that the Air Force had a point about the inability of the old A-10 to survive in a modern air defense environment in this Army article about networked air defense drones for our troops.

The main problem about the demise of the A-10 is that a dedicated close air support plane and its culture of supporting the Army die, too.

With just the multi-purpose F-35A, the Air Force will always have higher priorities to attend to than supporting Army troops.

If the Air Force designated a certain number of F-35 squadrons as close air support units with the weapons and training to back up the designation, I wouldn't whine about losing the aging A-10 made for a different era.

Air Bases in Boxes

The Air Force is having problems rolling out their idea to create "instant bases" with equipment sets in shipping containers that can get a rough base up and running quickly:

Due to poor planning and a lack of centralized management, it will take more time than originally expected for the U.S. Air Force to procure “base in a box” kits and forward deploy them in Europe, the Defense Department’s inspector general found in an investigation.

The Air Force began buying Deployable Air Base System—Facilities, Equipment, and Vehicles Kits — known more simply as DABS kits — in fiscal 2016 as it sought to push back on Russian influence in Europe.

This should work. And I mentioned it in the summer. The problem is management--or lack of it--and not concept, it seems.

I proposed a similar idea in Military Review of "bases in boxes on ships" for the Army (and it would work for the Navy and Marines, too, for that matter).

News ... From the Sea

Just in time for a new sea control focus, the Navy will test a littoral combat group concept designed to operate in the waters close to shore.

Okay:

The Navy deployed a new ship pairing – a destroyer (DDG-51) and an amphibious transport dock (LPD-17) – to test out a new concept that could supplement amphibious squadrons and surface action groups as a formation in future operations.

USS Somerset (LPD-25), USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG-108) and Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force (SP-MAGTF)-Peru deployed together as Littoral Combat Group 1 in November and December.

While at sea, the operations the group conducted leveraged both ships’ bread and butter missions: supporting Marines and pushing them ashore, embarking a Coast Guard law enforcement detachment, hosting a surgical team for humanitarian assistance work, and more. The two ships sailed to Valparaiso, Chile, for the Eleventh International Maritime and Naval Exhibition and Conference for Latin America (EXPONAVAL) and the 200th anniversary of the Chilean Navy. Also during the deployment, the 1,000 sailors and Marines from LCG-1 worked with the Peruvian Naval Infantry in a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise in the disaster-prone Chorrillos district outside Lima, and conducted a maritime patrol exercise with Ecuadorian navy assets to counter illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) fishing, among other activities.

This sounds exactly like the mission I thought The AFRICOM Queen modularized auxiliary cruiser (in Military Review) could accomplish--and for SOUTHCOM, too (that's just my latest post on that issue), given that having Navy assets is bound to be rare with higher priority theaters taking precedent.

And if you are talking about combat missions in the littorals for Marines, I covered that before 9/11, with a mention in a Joint Force Quarterly article of a Marine Expeditionary Battle Force that combines amphibious warfare ships with warships (and in my suggestion, afloat prepositioning ships for the balance of a Marine brigade).

Note too that the "littoral combat group" doesn't include a Littoral Combat Ship. Shocking, I know.

The Fountain of Aging

Funny enough, the Chinese rulers got exactly what they wished for when they mandated one child per couple. Let's be careful in the western Pacific.

Mark Steyn notes that a researcher in the West thinks that China's population dropped last year, quoting a Japan Times article:

China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy...

The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by U.S.-based academic Yi Fuxian.

I didn't think China could mandate more children. And isn't it odd that China's so-called ability to plan a century ahead didn't see that one coming?

While I haven't been as sure as Steyn that China can't pass us by, I've been pretty sure that even if China surpasses our economy, they can't hold it.

Of course, perhaps China wants genetically compliant people and robots for subjects as an alternative to slaughtering protesters every generation or two.

As Steyn wonders, could China strike before it declines relative to America?

A China that sees its future dominance fade could try to use their power while they can to lock in their power and influence in a global order they design before they reach peak power.

The Sun Will Never Set on the Royal Navy?

Britain's decision to spread a thin net of military power around the globe will help America--and Britain. And some bigger picture stuff, as it turns out.

This is helpful:

Supporting the U.S.-led international order, Britain will establish a new naval base in Southeast Asia. To be most effective, the Royal Navy should use that base to facilitate submarine operations.

Still, the U.S. should be grateful for Britain's decision here.

This is not new.

It may also reflect a history of Britain preferring not to commit heavily to continental land warfare if they don't have to. And Russia's power relative to a fully mobilized NATO means it isn't necessary. Perhaps getting busy elsewhere provides them with a reason not to commit a corps to eastern Europe as they did in Germany during the Cold War.

Let's hope that this measure of national power (which is not a measure of national military power, keep in mind) reflects reality:

The audit also shows that once again that the UK – though far behind the US – still enjoys a lead over China (albeit less than in 2017), despite having access to a far smaller national base.

“Indeed, in 2019, the UK remains second only to the US in terms of overall geopolitical capability, with a particularly strong performance in relation to diplomatic leverage and national resolve.” [emphasis in original]

Branding the UK “a truly global power”, the rankings find Britain retains its “unique capacity to project and extend itself around the world”.

This is the latest ranking, FYI*:

 

And I suspect there is an economic component if the European Union continues to punish Britain post-Brexit:

Britain might build bases in the Caribbean and Far East after Brexit. This sounds like a "trade follows the flag" policy to encourage trade with Commonwealth countries if the European Union continues to punish Britain for leaving the EU.

Either way, it is helpful in the South China Sea as long as Britain knows their limits, which that initial author rightly notes. Nuclear attack submarines are probably a wise choice, all things considered.

*Allow me to digress (as I can!). The article on national power notes that Britain is ranked above China and Russia in the military power category that contributes to the overall score because "the logistical capability to deploy, support and sustain those forces overseas in large numbers" is lacking in China and Russia.

That is misleading.

In many ways the old USSR was a regional military power--albeit across a vast region from the Elbe River to the Amur River. But the ability to drive to the Rhine River a short distance away would have achieved global results by defeating NATO and driving America from the continent. Russia today is weaker than the USSR and is so far east that it lacks a close target in NATO with global impact.

So a "regional" military reach can have global implications depending on the geography. Although again it is important to keep in mind that the ranking in question is not a military power ranking. But my objection does apply to the military category.

The article on national power says our soft power is lower now as a result of Trump-era polling data abroad. I'm not sure that is a proper metric. As long as other people risk life and limb to reach America, I don't think our soft power appeal has weakened.

Also, that overall score for Turkey has to hurt Erdogan given his ambitions for his revived caliphate.

Happy New Year: The Chinese Year of the Threat

China claims free Taiwan and will not allow Taiwan to remain free if that claim is made real.

The Taiwanese have rejected the Chinese notion of one country and two systems (that is, Taiwan could continue to run its own affairs if it submits to Chinese authority) by highlighting their embrace of democracy despite China's demand for unification:

On Tuesday, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan gave a New Year’s speech in which she said her 24 million people insist on freedom and democracy, unlike on the mainland. “China has to face the fact that the Republic of China [Taiwan] exists,” she said. It should use “peaceful and equal terms” to deal with differences.

The next day, in a speech solely about Taiwan, President Xi Jinping said in Beijing that “differences in [governing] systems” should not be an excuse against unification, an idea he called “inevitable” and perhaps made possible someday by force. The people of Taiwan are part of the same “family,” Mr. Xi insisted, which he called the “Chinese nation.”

Well, the Taiwanese have eyes. Democracy is "further out of reach" in Hong Kong. Did you expect anything else from China?

And ears. So duh.

This author thinks that Taiwan could not defeat an invasion and must work to increase China's perception of the cost of invading, including combat losses, economic losses, and international isolation.

Although I don't think a traditional beach invasion is how China would invade, China can invade.

Worse for Taiwan, all China has to do to doom Taiwan is seize a bridgehead and survive to a ceasefire.

It is true that China has a level of casualties to take Taiwan that they won't pay. But that price China is willing to pay could rise dramatically depending on internal Chinese circumstances--like legitimacy shattering economic problems.

Remember that party supremacy is more important than anything else as far as the Chinese Communist Party is concerned. As the post about economic problems indicates, China spends more protecting the party from internal threats (the internal security budget) than it does protecting China (and the party) from external threats (the defense budget).

And even if some internal event doesn't prompt an invasion regardless of the cost, the growing military imbalance in favor of China will get to the point where Taiwan's only path to survive as a democratic and free country is to own survivable nuclear weapons or somehow convince ordinary Chinese that their military shouldn't conquer Taiwan--or even inspire a revolution in China.

Weekend Data Dump

Stratfor looks back at trends from 2018.

Yes, civilians died during our air strikes against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. That is unfortunate but not a war crime. It is not illegal to strike enemies even knowing civilians will die. We go above and beyond what is required to avoid civilian deaths. And it is a war crime to use human shields to stop air strikes, which our enemies routinely do. Why don't "watchdog" groups highlight the use of human shields or armed groups or states that target civilians as a matter of strategy or apparent fun?

Democrats define themselves as against what Trump is for and for what Trump is against. You don't find that at The Dignified Rant. I did not let my long history of not liking Trump make me incapable of supporting good policies. Nor have I allowed my joy that Trump is not Hillary Clinton make me incapable of questioning his policies. I continue to offer my own opinions--right or wrong, but at least based on formal education and a life of immersing myself in the issues--on world events and defense issues. Although yes, I took personally the outrageous Democratic attacks on non-college educated voters who switched to Trump in 2016. I grew up in "Deplorableville" and deeply resent their relentless campaign of demonization. I will note that you did not see me descend into deranged criticism of Obama. In fact, in his first two years there was at least one person in the White House's vast staff that routinely visited TDR. I think I even kept a printout of my stats package as a memento. As for Bush, I operated under different conditions where I avoided any discussion of domestic politics for reasons of my employment conditions. And the issue of winning in Iraq kept me busy. Anyway, I assume the trend noted in the article ends that whole "reality based" pretense.

The U.S. Marine rotational presence in Australia went up in 2018, on its way to a full MEU of 2,500.


Rumors persist that these troops violated the UCMJ when Santa visited and distributed the hats.

Bake the cake you tragically funny hater.

Two hours into a naval war with the United States when all of Iran's Revolutionary Guard speed boats disappear from Iranian radar screens, who will tell their chief nutball that they didn't finally turn on their new stealth features?

Governor Jerry Brown: "I would point to the fact that it took [President Franklin D.] Roosevelt many, many years to get America willing to go into World War II and fight the Nazis." Um, no. The Nazis declared war on America. Next up: "Was it over when global warming bombed Pearl Harbor?" Brown is rolling.

I don't know why federal agencies need their own armed detachments. If these non-law enforcement entities need muscle to carry out their duties they should have to ask federal, state, or local law enforcement agencies. Tip to Instapundit.

Syria has no problem with Iraq bombing jihadis in Syria at will. Another reminder of how easy it is to overlook our victory in Iraq.

She seems to have developed a healthy attitude. So she will be shunned and figuratively stoned as a result. Tip to Instapundit.

It pains me that I have to repeat this, but the Statue of Liberty celebrates our liberty and not unrestricted immigration. And even the poem added on much later celebrated legal immigration to America. But apparently I'm an awful person for celebrating our liberty and our ability to welcome immigrants under conditions and numbers that we define.

Strategypage has their semi-annual review of wars. They start with terrorism, which has declined since hitting peaks when the ISIL caliphate existed. They are the most unlikely people to get their dream of restored empire. Russians, Chinese, Iranians, Turks, and even Europeans pine for imperial glory days (even if the proponents don't want the methods of their, ah ... overly enthusiastic ... past practitioners)  Also, what is with the Russians picking a fight with NATO which would rather not think of the place let alone invade it, while China with land claims on Russia grows more powerful in the east? Do read it all.

Good. I worked on administrative rules issues at the state level, and while they have a valuable role if limited, they can be abused if divorced from statutes that authorize and need them.

German scumball demonstrates he is as bad as he thinks foreigners are. Jihadis may be drawn from Islam, but Islam is not the same as jihad. Jihadis should be ruthlessly killed. Moslems, as a rule, are allies in killing jihadis.

Egad. My sympathies to the Russians. Just because Putin is wrecking Russia to reclaim scraps of empire is no reason to withhold human decency in a tragedy.

Good. Walking away is a nice symbol. But I think the world would be better off if about 75% of the UN agencies were simply disbanded and their employees fired.

Fresh off of the frustratingly dumb claim that a 10-foot wall can be defeated by an 11-foot ladder, opponents of physical barriers on the US-Mexican border claim a wall is a 5th century solution to a 21st century problem. Sorry, but walking and migration long predates the 5th century. And yes, physical barriers adequately defended work.

I'd say they've set the bar high for Peak Stupid very early in 2019, but we all know people are lining up to set new levels of stupidity. Too many people with PhD's are credentialed idiots. But please remember, this is a parody account that exposes the efforts to reach Peak Stupid.

This suicide for global warming is sad. But I fear that it is only a matter of time before we have homicide for global warming.

People who reject religion often just choose a substitute religion. This is related--and hilarious. I'm going to work on "the evil eye" as my weapon of choice.

Big deal, Twitter does that with thousands already. Tip to Instapundit.

China landed a craft (and rover) on the far side of the moon--which is a first for humans. Which is impressive. Although the Soviets did that, too. Young people may ask, who?

If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around, does it make a sound? "Nearly a million of these [Chinese] Moslems have been sent to reeducation camps and that has become an international issue, but not with Moslem nations who are usually quick to complain about any real or imagined slight by Western nations. ... The lack of criticism from Moslem nations is mainly about money and the realization that China is able and willing to maintain or withdraw investments depending on how recipient countries behave towards China." Well there you go. Democrats said if Trump was elected president there would be gulags for Moslems. And they were right! Of course, it was done by those famously reasonably enlightened Chinese communists.

Is the Iranian mullah regime really vulnerable to upheaval based on more broad opposition? The bigger question is whether the minority base of support is willing to kill on a large scale if there is upheaval. Tip to Instapundit.

So we will withdraw troops from Afghanistan? But not the special operations forces? That's risky because the special operations troops can't effectively operate without the net of security and information that a robust Afghanistan security presence in the country. If our troop withdrawal harms Afghan troop and police presence--and it is possible it won't since the situation in a year is different than the situation two years ago, of course--that's a problem. In related news, the top Army officer visited Kabul to discuss the war with Afghan officials.

The Iranians reject our demand they stop testing missiles capable of being adapted for nuclear weapons. Well of course they rejected it! How else will they deliver cheap and clean nuclear electricity?

Assad succeeded in dividing and conquering his armed opponents. Which isn't as difficult as you might think given that the shrunken rebellion continues to divide and fight itself. Close to 500,000 dead and a wrecked economy later, and Assad is still in charge. What a waste of sacrifice and opportunity. It could be 30 years before people want to challenge the Assad family regime again.

Niger isn't shy about giving body counts when they fight jihadis.

I imagine shutting off the Internet is the only information you need to conclude the DRC government rigged the election. Eighty US troops (I assume a Marine reaction force) were sent to nearby Gabon as a staging area just in case our diplomatic personnel in Congo need help if there is unrest as a result of whatever is announced. If The AFRICOM Queen patrolled the littorals, it would be steaming within range just in case.

It would be ironic if China's Social Credit Rating system to encourage people to do as they are told is, when it is fully rolled out across the country, the source of the communist party's destruction. Because the system will provide those who control it a way to earn money. How will people think of their rulers when the big shots and their children get great scores no matter how they behave because they bribe the right officials? Could that be the spark of revolt?

Egypt is close to the Saudis due to Saudi financial support. Is the phone call between Trump and Egypt's Sisi at this moment an indication that Egyptian special forces might go to eastern Syria? Strategypage writes that it is not likely that Saudi or UAE special forces will go to eastern Syria as RUMINT has reported.

Is Russia preparing to launch a major escalation of the ground war from a reinforced occupied Crimea? We'll see if Ukraine can inflict enough casualties to make it a problem for Putin. Heck, would Ukraine strike first seeing an offensive coming? I am braced for more fighting in Ukraine given that Russia's Condor Legion is no longer busy in Syria and Russia seems to have a problem with more than one small war at a time.

The Turks aren't eager to suffer casualties to fight the Kurds in Syria. So Turkey will use their Syrian "rebel" FSA allies to fight the Kurds. In what way are they "rebels" against Assad if they simply fight whatever way Turkey points? Which Assad is probably fine with at the moment.

The Russians would prefer to return to the days when Ukraine couldn't decide not to ship militarily important items to Russia.

I will clearly be watching news less the next two years if Speaker Pelosi is on the air a lot, bringing along Schumer for courtesy photo ops.

The battle to defend (restore?) rule of law in Romania continues. Rule of law will make Romania more prosperous and better able to resist Russian influence and interference.

Netanyahu and Putin had another discussion, this time "centering on Syria." Which doesn't rule out Lebanon as a topic of discussion, eh?

Just a reminder that I didn't buy the Khashoggi as saint full court press by our media. The man was a player in the Saudi version of Game of Thrones--and he lost. Perhaps he didn't deserve to be killed. But winning in Saudi Arabia isn't a polite affair and if Khashoggi had won, would he have behaved any better on that winning side?

Attacking an economically and foreign policy illiterate elected official for acting like a cute young woman is just stupid. Which is worse than wrong, of course. Unless the point of the temporary anonymous poster was to make conservatives look bad. Perhaps I shouldn't assume it was a conservative poster. Although that is probably the way to bet, I imagine. Not that any Republicans of note piled on, I should add. Mostly the kerfuffle seems to be Democrats outraged at nobody in particular.

On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog bot.* So social media is worse than a circle jerk of committed activists who think social media is the entire universe? Also, the article discussed the difficulty of counting real traffic, which I've whined about. *Classical reference for you youngsters out there.

An Army National Guard armored brigade took a turn in the rotations through Kuwait under Operation Spartan Shield. I did not know that. Which helps with the demands on active armored brigade combat teams for forward rotations.

Trump proves to be a thoroughly stupid dictator, allowing Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives as 2019 began. Not since the Bushtatorship allowed the Democrats to take control of the House in 2007 have we seen a tyrant display such ineptitude.

I'd have preferred to have killed this man involved in the Cole bombing a long time ago, but it is a good sign that we don't rest until we kill enemies.

Well, perhaps our troops in the most eastern part of Syria won't leave as long as we have to deal with ISIL there.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church's split from the Russian church is formally completed.

It's darned considerate of the Iranian navy to spare us the need to go all the way to the Arabian Sea to sink their ships.

Curacao is worried that Venezuela's collapse is harming their economy. Yeah, it could be worse. At some point Maduro may run out of domestic "enemies" to blame for the country's woes.

RAND has a long paper on the characteristics of the new era of international competition. I don't know if I will read it because of this angle: "The emerging era is likely to involve a drawn-out combination of contestation, competition, and cooperation in which 'winning' or 'victory' is the wrong mental model." "Contestation?" Is that some odd form of a "contest" that doesn't involve victory or winning? Because of there is a contest between states, of bloody course there will be "victory" or "winning"--or "defeat" and "losing." Why compete if there is not the lure of winning or the fear of defeat? Good God that framing lacks adequasivity. We may have difficulty defining what "winning" means in any particular area, but the notion that it doesn't exist seems ludicrous, to say the least.

Your feel good story of the week: The (alleged) criminal would have had better luck running into a vegan bakery.

I'm fully on board the notion that France should worry more about car bomb footprints than carbon footprints.

Is Israel's threat to take out Hezbollah precision rocket production facilities in Lebanon just a cover to provide a less threatening reason for Israel's military "already on high alert" in preparation for a major ground offensive into Lebanon to rip apart Hezbollah and its infrastructure? As I've said many times, it is difficult to completely hide military preparations. Surprise is generally achieved by convincing your target that the reason for what they see isn't threatening. Or I'm wrong, of course. Also, I disagree that withdrawing American forces from eastern Syria harms Israel significantly. American intervention was never about Israel.

The chief opposition leader in Syrian civil war negotiations says he is surprised at how readily countries are reestablishing relations with Assad. Really? What surprises me is how readily rebels fought each other rather than focusing on defeating Assad. What surprises me is how many foreign countries ignored the advice that when you strike a king you should kill him. But here we are.

This is exactly why I stopped linking and commenting on the Leftist outrage of the day. I knew no individual represented all Democrats or liberals, and decided that even commenting on some loony toon who deserved the bad attention contributes to the polarization evident among the politically active. You do what you can.

Is it my imagination or has Indonesia experienced more than their fair share of natural disasters lately?

The Goddess of Autocracy Above Us

China's "dark side of the moon" lander has sent its robotic rover off on its mission:

The Jade Rabbit 2 rover has succeeded in establishing a digital transmission link with a relay satellite that sends data back to the Beijing control center, the space agency said in a posting late Friday on its website.

The rover's radar and panoramic camera have been activated and are working normally, it said. A photo released by the agency showed the rover stopped at a point not far from where the Chang'e 4 spacecraft touched down Thursday.

Chang'e 4, named after a Chinese moon goddess, is the first craft to make a soft landing on the moon's far side, which faces away from Earth.

The Chinese moon goddess of autocracy rises? So much for the Tiananmen Square Goddess of Democracy.

And within minutes, a Chinese democracy activist stood in front of the lunar robot which promptly ran him over and crushed him.

I await the dark side's inclusion on China's newest official map of control and claims.

Will the Navy Get or Face a Rail Gun?

China has put a rail gun on a ship to test it out. Where is our rail gun?

Is this a sign that China will have a rail gun weapon before our Navy?

The Type 072II Yuting-class tank landing ship "Haiyang Shan" and its weapon were spotted along the Yangtze River at the Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan earlier this year.

The latest photos of the test-bed ship, which appeared on social media a few days ago, show the ship toting the suspected railgun as the vessel roamed the high seas, Task & Purpose reported. ...

China is expected to field warship-mounted electromagnetic railguns with the ability to fire high-speed projectiles at targets up to 124 miles away by 2025, CNBC reported in June, citing US defense sources with direct knowledge of the latest military intelligence reports on China's new naval weapon.

I worried about the Chinese effort even as if it seemed we dropped the ball. I've written about the potential of the rail gun to replace naval aviation if it is spread throughout the fleet and networked.

I have serious worries about investing so much money and personnel in the platform-centric huge aircraft carrier--which we can't afford to lose--when the network-centric naval world of distributed offensive power is coming. We should have this first and not our potential enemies.

Missiles are a big part of this, but I think rail guns will solve the resupply problem of missiles when the rail gun is combat ready and in the fleet.

I hope it gets to our fleet before it gets to the Chinese fleet. We've had concepts of "network-centric warfare," "cooperative engagement," the "tactical cloud," and "distributed lethality." Am I missing any? Could we get that capability before the Navy gets a new name?

Perhaps the Army will save the Navy for dropping the ball on the rail gun.

UPDATE: I'm hopefully up-to-date with concept terminology with this late addition of "kill web."

Fighting a Land War in Asia

A corps-sized Army on the Asian continent to help less capable but more numerous allied troops is not a radical idea.

I did not know this World War II idea:

"[General] Marshall firmly refused [the American commander of forces in China and Burma] Major General] Stillwell's request for an American army corps to spearhead the fighting [against the Japanese] in China."

That is from page 273 of Antony Beevor's The Second World War, which I am reading now. I like it. It weaves in granularity that I never saw before, making it more than just another retelling of World War II.

I would have included that detail in my article in Military Review calling for the Army to plan for a major land campaign in the Asia-Pacific region--and not just in the Korean peninsula.

China's army is professionalizing and being reduced so it is no longer like punching sand to take it on. And while I don't rule out using up to a 5-6-division Army-Marine force on the mainland of China--or perhaps in Pacific Russia (perhaps for a major raid or to temporarily hold key coastal territory to support the Navy, but more importantly to make sure China has to worry about such an expedition)--mainly I wanted our Army to plan for landing a major force to support larger allied armies who could use our force as a spearhead force with unique capabilities to fight an enemy more effectively--as Stillwell wanted an American corps to do.

But our World War II strategy was not to defeat Japan in China but to keep the Japanese stuck in China while we won in the Pacific Ocean.

Despite that choice, the notion of fighting in Asia is hardly out of the question despite the simple warning of "don't fight a land war in Asia" without any context on why you shouldn't--and why you might need to.

Well, They Didn't Try REAL Socialism, Right?

Will the region be ready when Venezuela finishes circling the drain and takes the big plunge?

Our secretary of state discussed Venezuela with Brazil's new government:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Venezuela with Brazil's new right-wing government on Wednesday in the context of what he termed a joint-front against authoritarian regimes in Latin America.

I've hoped that Brazil, the strongest country in South America, would take the lead in a regional response to cope with the socialist basket case autocracy that Venezuela has become under Chavez and now Maduro.

Three million people have already fled Venezuela (tip to Instapundit):

An estimated 5,000 people pack up their lives and leave every day, eager to flee the economic collapse and humanitarian crisis which has beset the oil-rich nation.

More than 3m people have fled Venezuela in recent years. According to the UN, that number is expected to rise to more than 5m by the end of 2019[.]

This is in contrast to all those Democrats who remain in America despite their claims of economic disaster and tyranny after our election in 2016. Because America is not in danger of becoming the authoritarian disaster zone that Venezuela is.

Maduro claims America is behind the crisis. I wish we could do that much damage to an oil-rich state if we choose.

And I worry that even at this late date Maduro might think a short and glorious war could rally his people around him.

Defendng the Senkakus is Fun and Easy

Japan's F-35s should provide a more efficient way for Japan's aircraft to counter China's increasing challenges to Japan's control of the Senkaku Islands.

Yes, Japan's fleet of fighter aircraft are stressed responding to Chinese aerial challenges to Japan's sovereignty over distant islands:

A long-standing rivalry between China and Japan has intensified in recent years, owing in part to growing parity between the two Asian great powers. Although the competition involves many issues and spans political, economic, and security domains, the dispute over the Senkaku Islands remains a focal point. The authors examine how China has stepped up its surface and air activities near Japan, in particular near the Senkaku Islands. They survey the patterns in Chinese vessel and air activity and consider Japan's responses to date. The authors conclude that resource constraints and limited inventories of fighter aircraft pose formidable obstacles to the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force's ability to match Chinese air activity. Given China's quantitative advantage in fighter aircraft, Japan's current approach may not be sustainable.

The authors have a number of suggestions, including using ground-based air defenses to fill in for aircraft when possible.

I've suggested sending in the "robots" to defend the Senkakus:

Surface, sub-surface, aerial, and ground based robots (or remotely crewed devices, in the case of anything that can shoot) could be deployed around the Senkaku Islands. These robots would be defenders of Japanese control that will always be there, never tiring. And they could soak up every electronic and sound emission that the Chinese vessels release, for future reference.

Deploying coast guard or even navy vessels could be reserved for the most important messages.

Otherwise, let the Chinese play with the Roombas with attitude--they could transmit a message welcoming visitors to Japan and wishing them, "Have a nice visit!"

If the Japanese want to play a little rougher, like red-light camera systems, they could photograph intruding ships and planes and then send them a bill to the pilot or captain (sent to the unit) for the fee to visit Japan.

Armed robots for the really tough cases would be an option, too. With the Japanese Self Defense Forces in the background and the American armed forces on call, too.

If you combine those assets with the ability of even a single F-35 to fire the ground-based missiles at a large force of aircraft, it will be the Chinese pilots who are stressed by their challenges and not the Japanese defenders.

The Countermeasure is Obvious

Robot swarms could take over the anti-sea mine mission. You know what happens next.

Good idea:

A sea mine is a promise of tragedy in the future. Built for the immediate demands of a naval conflict, deployed for some once-pressing strategic end, and now left in place for decades, sea mines are an enduring risk. Clearing the sea from the dangerous refuse of the past can be a high-stakes proposition. Why not, then, let robots do it?

It won't be long before sea mines are themselves moving swarms that slowly travel away from such robotic hunter killers and can move to more target-rich environments.

Perhaps minefields will have defensive escort mines that attack the minesweeping swarm.

This capability will eventually be lethal.

I note a similar prediction for land forces. And there is an air defense version I have advocated, too.

Empire of Mediocrity

The Germans want to divert even more potentially useful European military potential into the dysfunctional German military.

Germany needs to look abroad for recruits as it seeks to marginally improve its marginal military:

Seven years after Germany scrapped conscription, its defence chief has said employing EU citizens is "an option" to fill expert posts.

Army general inspector Eberhard Zorn said the forces had to "look in all directions in times of a lack of qualified personnel", such as doctors and IT specialists.

The armed forces have been beset by years of under-investment.

Germany aims to increase its military by 21,000 personnel by 2025.

It has also pledged to raise its defence budget from 1.2% to to 1.5% of its gross domestic product by 2024, in the face of criticism from President Donald Trump that it does not meet the Nato target of 2% of GDP.

The Germans say it is just a program for certain specialists, but Germany is already infecting NATO armies by absorbing entire NATO brigades into their force structure.

Maybe America should have a rival program to make potential NATO military power real within the American military.

West Germany used to have a good military in the Cold War. Heck, even East Germany had a small but good military in comparison to the rest of the Soviet-controlled Warsaw Pact forces. Now united Germany is an economic powerhouse but a weak and unreliable military ally badly in need of beatings with the clue bat.

Russian propaganda to encourage pacifism in Germany, as this writer notes, has done wonders to cripple Germany's military.

Is the China Century Over Already?

China's growth could slow to a crawl.

This article argues that China is not necessarily destined to become the dominant economic power any more than the Soviet Union or Japan were able to surpass America:

Do not extrapolate from the recent past. China has had a hugely impressive four decades. After their triumph in the cold war, both the west and the cause of liberal democracy have stumbled. Should we conclude that an autocratic China is sure to become the world’s dominant power in the next few decades? My answer is: no. That is a possible future, not a certain one.

I'd add the booms of predicting German or European Union triumphs.

I have long rejected arguments that  assumed past performance was a guide that extends with no end. China has made tremendous progress but has not discovered a means to sustain that growth rate from a very low level forever.

It is possible that China could pass us by in the middle of this century. Although China's stumbling now could stop that rise.

But even if China does pass us by in mid-century, the end of the century could see America reclaim the crown. I base this on population trends that will no longer allow China the easy method of putting peasants in factories:

Until now, much of China's growth has been based on the "Lewis turning point" that reflects direct inputs of new workers rather than more efficient use of existing workers. Once the direct input slows, wages rise and the comparative production advantage erodes. As I liked to say, take the most efficient peasant and take him from a farm and put him in the most inefficient factory and the GDP he produces goes up.

The years 2050 and 2100 may look very different from today where anybody who is anybody tries to predict when China takes over our top spot on the globe.

And I'll add that as long as we are trying to figure out possible futures of China, I'll ask why we have to choose only one?

Why the author had to digress with a pointless insult against Trump is beyond me, I'll note. It was just one sentence but it tainted the analysis by adding politics when none was needed.

UPDATE: China's economy is running into problems that past solutions can no longer solve:

In December, for the first time since February 2016, Chinese factory activity declined. That alone was enough to cause stock markets worldwide to continue their sharp declines because the factory slowdown was more evidence that the entire Chinese economy was hitting a rough patch. It was also confirmed that Chinese GDP growth in 2018 was 6.5 percent and many economic indicators continue declining while those in the United States are growing. This is a reminder that the current trade war with the United States favors the Americans for many reasons that Chinese leaders cannot ignore. China has hit economic slumps since the 1990s, usually the result of economic problems in the West. But now the cause is China because of a lot of bad decisions that are now catching up with the Chinese leadership that made all the mistakes in the first place. Years of tolerating corruption and ignoring the growth of bad loans (that were at the basis of much corruption) means that just borrowing more money to give the economy a boost will not work. A sharper decline in Chinese economic activity would have worldwide impact because China is a major trading nation and a major customer for raw materials, semi-finished goods and some high tech items. Fewer orders from Chinese firms has major impact on national economies worldwide. That’s why global financial markets have been in decline for months and prospects of a turnaround are not good right now.

Do read it all.

Will China recover despite the problems that have accumulated? Or will the world decouple from such reliance on trade with China?

Robots Forward!

I think robotics will make highly trained all-volunteer armies obsolete.

An Army exercise used remotely controlled vehicles to breach physical barriers to allow manned units to cross them:

First Lieutenant Cody Rothschild told US defence publication Stars & Stripes: “We did a robotic breach today, which has never been done before. This is a great step forward for the Army, and for robotics.”

The exercise involved remotely controlled robots clearing a path for forces, supported by M1A2 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The unmanned systems disabled landmines and built a land bridge enabling infantry to navigate a tank trench.

Reducing the exposure of combat engineers to enemy fire defending the obstacles is good.

When they are truly robotic with autonomy, how long will it be before the assault echelon is robotic, too?

Years ago I wondered if jihadis would respond to robotic and remotely controlled weapons with their own, in a similar breaching mission:

I have to wonder if the next step is for Hamas to switch to robots to attack the Israeli border defense robots. Perhaps crawling mobile mines or EFPs try to work their way through the border defenses, taking days or weeks to try and evade detection. Maybe tunnels are dug to push the robot to the surface where it will begin its infiltration mission. Perhaps UAVs with mine or EFP payloads are sent on one-way missions to land by a road to hit an Israeli vehicle. Perhaps the crawlers wash up on shore as "junk" and then move out. Or maybe terrorists assemble a robotic terrorist inside a city or out in the countryside and then set it to deploy and attack hours or days after the construction team leaves?

Perhaps enough terrorist robots can overwhelm the robotic sensors to clear a path to allow "human" terrorists to exploit the gap and actually reach human targets before getting themselves killed.

And how will jihadi ideology deal with fighting and dying not to kill infidels but robots?

In the bigger picture, I expect robotics to eventually return us to the days of mass armies waging wars of attrition. But instead of pushing meat sacks into the line, the key will be robot production and logistics to get them to the front line.

The F/B-1 AABONE

So how many long-range air-to-air missiles could we put on a B-1?

With the range American planes have to fly to defend targets close to China, there is a risk that Chinese frontal stealth aircraft could overwhelm our fighters on station and go after AWACS-type planes and aerial tankers to cripple our air defenses.

Given the ability of the F-35 to fire anti-aircraft weapons on other platforms, could we equip the B-1 bomber with long-range air-to-air missiles (an Air-to-Air B-1, or AABONE)?

The B-1 could hang well back and let the closer stealthy F-35 fire a barrage from the B-1, without even disclosing the location of the F-35.

I suggest a B-1 for this mission rather than a bomb truck using a converted commercial plane for this threat environment because the B-1 could skedaddle at high speed away from the threat after firing the missiles.

Singing from the Same Sheet of Music

This self-organizing robot swarm is awesome--unless it is scary:

This is a mass of kilobots, minimalistic robots that each contain an LED light, a vibrating motor and the ability to communicate with other nearby kilobots via infrared signals. And after a human tears a swath through their assembled clusters, the robots organically, intuitively, autonomously reform into a similar shape, guided by nothing so much as its own basic rules.

The experiment, by a team of researchers in Spain, the UK and the Netherlands, posits a simple question: Robotic swarms scan as intense, complex things, but what if people can engineer them to work together as simply as cells in organic matter?

The experiment is very simple, but this would have a lot of applications--including my idea for air defense drones providing low level air defense over our infantry units.

Or any other unit, but leg infantry which can't haul around enough air defense weapons to defeat enemy attack drones in large numbers would get the most initial benefit.

Let's do it to our enemies before they do it to us.