Welcome to the Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser Party, Pal

It has been proposed that container ships with weapons and equipment in shipping containers could create auxiliary cruisers to provide needed numbers for the Navy. I proposed the same thing many years ago.

The latest USNI Proceedings has this essay urging auxiliary cruisers using containerized systems mounted on container ships:

In the past half decade, innovators have heeded calls to increase the Navy’s ship count by putting containerized missiles on merchant ships. They have improved the weapons, drones, and sensors to the point the Navy is experimenting with mounting them on container ships. Even so, U.S. politicians, military leaders, and analysts continue to overemphasize the number of destroyers, cruisers, frigates, etc., the Navy needs. But the Navy has acknowledged it cannot meet its goal of 380-plus ships any time soon[.]

If numbers matter, we should pursue numbers.

I proposed a modularized auxiliary cruiser long ago. But contrary to the image above, after seeing a number of photos of container ships with stacked containers tilted and in danger of tumbling off, I suggested stacking the containerized mission modules isn't ideal. Lots of containers fall off container ships--1,500 per year--from many causes not even related to combat:

This included stormy weather, ship design, propulsion issues and how containers are lashed together, including varying regulations around the latter. The degradation of containers and resulting metal fatigue could also be considerations.

After USNI sat on my essay for close to a year, I retracted it, eventually adapted it for power projection missions in AFRICOM, and sent it to Military Review, where it won third place in their annual contest. 

I recently wrote about the concept. And I've noted the cited Dutch development.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The image is from the article.

Supplies Are Not a Luxury

One reason our military budget is so large is that we have to spend so much just to get our troops and equipment to the fight overseas and sustain them there even before we train and equip one member of our military. We got used to not thinking about that. That's a problem if we don't want isolated troops surrendering in large numbers overseas.

Yeah: 

The U.S. military’s reliance on commercial providers for sealift and airlift is not viable should a conflict arise, and the Defense Department is hoping partnerships with allies will improve its sustainment processes, a Pentagon official said Feb. 11.

During peacetime, commercial industry provides the military 90 percent of its sealift and personnel airlift, and about 40 percent of its cargo airlift requirements, said Leigh Method, who is currently performing the duties of principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for sustainment.

We've also gotten used to the luxury of doing maintenance back in the continental United States instead of overseas.  But what was a sanctuary in the "end of history" era is no more. 

Power with no projection is no power at all. We started addressing the problem. But we have to scale it up significantly.

And the problem gets even worse.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo from the U.S. Army.

Let the Decimation Begin

I want to have confidence in our senior military leaders. But they lost me in the months before our Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle and years after. The needed Roman decimation may be beginning.

Be still my heart (tip to Instapundit):

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is considering firing a slate of military generals and flag officers as early as this week, according to two defense officials and three congressional officials.

Pentagon leadership has shared a list of generals and officers who could be fired with Republican members of the House and the Senate, the defense officials and congressional officials said. The officials said the timing for announcing the decisions could shift.

And here we go. Trump fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I didn't care what that general was thinking about George Floyd as he did in a video he posted. I wanted to know about his views on the protection for our aircraft he was responsible for in INDOPACOM. And I questioned his "recruiting" commercials that seemed like an advertisement to get his JCS job. He has surely done way more to protect this country than I did or will. But hold the top job? No.

But so far we're in rookie number territory for an old fashioned Roman Decimation, eh?

I want a purge. I lost confidence--justifiably, I believe--in our flag officers and general officers (FOGOs) over the Afghanistan defeat. Although my disappointment in our FOGOs regarding Afghanistan is not all-encompassing.

Our staffs are too bloated with officers, I believe. But I concede I'd rather have rigorous analysis of what expanded duties and coordination with other services require in the area of senior officers. Perhaps some of that staff is better suited to higher levels of command rather than overloading the combat commander in the field. Perhaps the black box of effects I want for troops should be duplicated at higher echelons to fulfill the expanded duties needed to wage a battle.

One means of keeping useful slots for not quite apex generals might be to increase our divisional headquarters by 50% by commanding just two brigades each. In 2000 I proposed this as part of a Military Review article (charts were stripped and some text garbled, which broke the flow, so I put the corrected text version here) on making divisions more deployable while being capable of absorbing another brigade for large-scale conventional operations.

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Hezbollah Calls for Emergency Mullah Service

I was perhaps hasty in admitting I was wrong about the inability of Israel to defeat Hezbollah with fires. But Hezbollah is being reconstituted by Iran already.

January was not even over when reports of Iran working the problem emerged:

Iran is financially supporting the military reconstitution of Lebanese Hezbollah. Israel submitted a complaint to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire committee, claiming that Iranian envoys are delivering "tens of millions of dollars in cash" to Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut to fund the revival of Hezbollah, according to an unspecified US defense official representing the ceasefire committee and people familiar with the content of the complaint. Western media reported in December 2024 that Iran may seek to establish a new "hub" in the Beirut airport for military shipments to Hezbollah.

I prematurely admitted to being wrong about Israel's ability to defeat Hezbollah's rocket surge strategy. Although I argued that special circumstances allowed Israel to carry out the fires strategy that are unlikely to apply more broadly. And new information led me to retract some of my admission of error.

You may recall that my view has long been that Israel needed to mount a multi-division ground raid into Lebanon to rip out the rear area infrastructure of Hezbollah--both people and physical assets:

I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.

Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.

That infrastructure has remained largely intact because Israeli ground operations remained shallow and the air campaign didn't cripple Hezbollah's rear areas. That administrative base of Hezbollah remains to absorb Iranian money and equipment to reconstitute Hezbollah's ability to cripple the Lebanese government and to again threaten Israel.

If Israel takes down the mullah regime in Iran that wants to rebuild Hezbollah, my objection is moot, of course.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Turns Three Years Old

After three years, war weariness erodes the most just cause or the most vicious dictator's plan of conquest.

All the talk of America fighting Russia in a proxy war as if America compels Ukraine to fight has been ridiculous. I've long said Ukraine is fighting for its interests and that if Ukrainians decide they can't fight any more, Ukraine won't. Ukraine seems prepared to end the war without liberating all its territory:

Ukraine will offer to swap territory with Russia in any potential peace negotiations, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview published [earlier this month.]

I would prefer Ukraine liberate its territory. But I would at least like Ukraine to inflict a major defeat on Russia's ground forces and take back significant chunks of territory before talks settle on the details. 

And I do wonder how long Russia can pretend it is unconcerned with its high casualties and economic distress. I just don't buy this analysis:

Russia’s stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons and larger population have allowed it to withstand heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine as the West fails to provide Ukraine the aid needed to mount a counteroffensive, according to an annual review of the global military situation.

Ukraine may not be able to mass the forces to eject Russia, but who breaks first isn't a simple mathematical formula based on size:

I ask if we will see Russian morale break because in the Iran-Iraq War, Iran's cannon fodder hopped up on Shia Islamist fervor developed a reputation for disregarding casualties. It was widely thought that it was just a matter of time before Iraq's army broke under the strain. And yet, as I wrote in this old summary of my Iran-Iraq War manuscript, nobody saw the change that happened after Iran's massive Karbala V offensive[.]

Ukrainians increasingly seem weary of suffering and waging war to eject the Russians from all Ukrainian territory. We'll see what they are willing to fight and die for after three years. They may complain about a ceasefire--even a really bad one, God forbid--but they may be relieved to get anything.

But the Russians may be equally eager to get a ceasefire to forestall a collapse of their weakened ground forces. Don't assume they are immune to the effects of losses despite their bravado. How much of his conquests will Putin give up to avoid the possibility his staggering military and economy falter and spark disaster at home? 

UPDATE (Wednesday): FWIW, my first post on Russia's invasion the night of February 23, 2022 (date in eastern America). The post was largely written early in the day. I suspected we were on the eve of war. I was at a bar and wanted to get home to see if Russia had invaded. I made some edits and published. I think it holds up well. And here we are.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Criticism of America getting compensation from Ukraine via a deal on rare earth minerals vital our military and for military aid to Ukraine is being portrayed as refusal to simply help a friend under brutal assault rather than a means to sustain American support. Lend-Lease, gold for weapons, and the Destroyers for Bases Deal in World War II were unavailable for comment. 

UPDATE (Thursday): The U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal has no security component. But you must admit that the premise of the deal assumes a sovereign Ukraine able to carry out the terms of the deal where the minerals are mined, no?

UPDATE (Friday): I didn't like how the joint press conference looked today. Ukraine is our unofficial ally, I believe. And Russia must be stopped.

Yet I can't help but think Trump and Zelensky had a chuckle together when it was over. Both fully know television optics, yet performed as they did. If the idea is to bolster Zelensky with his people for an election and to trust him to get a good deal; scare Europeans into doing more to help Ukraine and defend themselves; buy some credit with his own conservative base; reassure Russia it can trust Trump to shepherd a peace deal to completion; and warn Putin not to publicly confront Trump, the optics of the event were perfect.

Or it was exactly what it looked like. Hard to say. 

UPDATE (Friday): Although the Russians are so paranoid, I'm sure they see this as a ploy by America and Ukraine.

UPDATE (Friday): And it is interesting that Trump said Zelensky wants to "fight, fight, fight." Which is a Trump rallying cry after the first assassination attempt on him. Things can change dramatically, quickly, on this issue.

UPDATE (Saturday): If you think I am simply delusional in thinking perhaps there is method to Trump's apparent madness, keep in mind that I also worked to keep an open mind when Biden was reaching out to Putin. 

UPDATE (Saturday): Mission accomplished? "Western leaders scrambled to back Ukraine after Friday’s acrimonious meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky[.]"

UPDATE (Sunday): And now I see a video report that Trump and Putin have "split" over the issue of post-war European peacekeepers. Just calm down and stop reacting to every diplomatic fart like it is the end of the world. 

I want a good deal for Ukraine. I want Russia to stop its pointless hostility toward NATO and instead focus on blocking China over Russia's Far East territories taken from China in the 19th century. I'm not prepared to draw a picture of the outcome based on scattered dots.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

HTS tries to form a Syrian government while not frightening minorities and former Assad supporters, while preventing jihadis from [prematurely?] ruining the show. I don't assume the multi-war is over.

Ukraine did too good a job: "Turkey and Ukrainian special forces helped. This was an unexpected combination that no one inside or outside Syria saw coming." Better for Ukraine to have created a renewed front to distract Russia than defeat Russia fast allowing it to focus on fighting Ukraine. 

Russian electronic warfare screws up civilian plane navigation.

I don't like meeting with Russia about Ukraine without Ukraine present. Don't let Russia pretend Ukraine isn't a sovereign state who America represents. 

"U.S. forces killed a senior operative of the al-Qaeda-linked group Hurras al-Din in northwestern Syria this weekend, U.S. Central Command said."

The Army is deploying a new spy plane, Athena-R. I guess the Air Force doesn't want to do that job.

Is NATO falling apart? I doubt it. Terms are changing. That doesn't mean it is ending--unless the EU kills to. It would certainly be awful that an alliance in search of a mission after defeating the USSR would fall apart just as Russia begins to march west again. NATO absolutely has a modern mission. 

Truman's collision damage seems like an ugly fender bender and far from a mission kill.

I believe welcoming a "tame" Islamist government in Syria is suicidal. 

I concede that Ukraine is losing the war now, as measured by territorial loss and considering its troop losses. But "losing" the war is not the same as "lost". Things change. And I suspect Russian indifference to losses is a desperate facade to get a good deal. Russia could break first.

Europe could rebuild the economic foundation for restoring military strength but they'd rather pursue fantasies. The EU has higher priorities than mere economic growth.

Poland was lauded as a model ally. Indeed. It is the center of gravity for the U.S. Army these days.

Interesting: Vance: "U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine are a consideration if Russia refuses to negotiate an end to the war[.]"

To the shores of Japan: "The newest America-class amphibious assault ship will head to its new home in Japan later this year, USNI News has learned."

China is selling munitions to Russia. I didn't think China would risk that. Did China judge there was no risk? Will there be risk going forward? 

Well, make Putin actually compromise: "The Russian government still sends more troops to Ukraine but is also looking for some sort of compromise to end the war, and all those ruinous sanctions."

Russia leans on Iran and North Korea to sustain its economy. 

In defense of tanks in Australia's army.

America first does not mean Europe alone. Remember, the proto-imperial EU wants Europeans to believe that.

The Ukrainians should be involved in talks to end the Winter War of 2022. But I can accept mostly involved in talks as long as Russia is forced to sign the deal with Ukraine, with other powers merely supporting signatories.

Hamas continues to dribble out hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. I imagine Hamas is running out of living hostages.

Russia has hardened its stance as talks on the Winter War of 2022 commence. Don't let Russia bank those demands as a condition for talks. 

Vance's Operation European Freedom speech. We need to (again) shape Europe so it is sponge-worthy.

China plays with fire over the South China Sea. 

The Precision Attack Strike Missile (PASM) will "dramatically extend the range at which AH-1Zs can engage targets on land and at sea."

New American and British facilities to build 155mm barrels will go online this year.

Ukraine's recon and artillery fire control drone.

DOGE success is crucial for national defense: "Ike's West Point gut told him America faced a long and dreary strategic siege, and to pay for the win, we needed wealth — meaning a long-term productive and growing economy." 

Pre-strike recon and targeting data compilation?

Normalizing jihadi terrorism as if its just a fall hazard on slippery ice. Why do we hate us? 

Can Germany rise to the challenge of defending Europe (also here)? That's the 21st century German Question.

"Europe" (that is, the European Union and their fanboys) is in a panicked frenzy over Trump. Blaming America--and him in particular--is much more comforting than confronting how Europe has sabotaged itself for decades. If we have problems with Europe, it's not us--it's you. Have we made that clear?

The administration is seeking 8% cuts in defense spending, with some part to be redirected to higher priority spending. 

Sweden may send Ukraine JAS 39 Gripen multirole jets. This plane has long been called better than the F-16 for operating on rougher runways.

Could NATO aircraft patrolling Ukrainian air space be the means of deterring Russia after a ceasefire? Only if they can bomb Russian targets. Russia is unlikely to violate the ceasefire with air power.

CRS report to Congress on American special forces.

American, French, and Japanese (allegedly) aircraft carriers finished joint exercises in the Philippine Sea.

The Minuteman III nuclear missile still works.

New York State mobilized National Guard troops to help secure prisons during a sudden prison guard strike. That can't be happy or fulfilling duty.

A PLAN frigate, cruiser, and supply tanker are unwanted guests off of Australia's east coast. 

The United States designated eight Latin American criminal organizations as "terrorists." Are they? Shouldn't being large-scale criminal groups bad enough? I just don't like diluting the "terrorist" designation needlessly.

NATO states are practicing large-scale combat operations.  Good.

Putin is juggling more and more chain saws to keep his war, economy, regime--and possibly his life--going.

Elections won't save Haiti. Rule-of-law democracy is the ideal. Right now Haiti needs rule of law more than voting.

"Europe" is sidelined. But "Trump might yet realise, as this column has consistently argued in the past, that it is in America’s interest to contain Russia and maintain a strong defensive posture in Europe." NATO has a modernized mission, along those lines. As for being sidelined? Location, location, location.

I noted the contract almost a year ago, but Tinian will get its airfields rebuilt for the U.S. to resist China. It's taking a long time to act. Yet we island hopped across the Pacific against Japanese resistance in three and a half years.

The Navy fixed the Constellation design? I think we effed up by altering the proven basic FREMM frigate design way too much, making Constellation a new ship, with new-design problems. Costs skyrocketed.

To be fair, the West staged a production of Resolve Theater against the Houthi. 

Could a Nordic-Baltic coalition based on the non-NATO Joint Expeditionary Force step up to aid Ukraine more? Really? But it would strengthen the coalition for defense of NATO's Baltic central front. And bolster Estonia against the Narva Gambit, as I advocated in Army magazine. I cited JEF in that piece.

European media has gone simply nuts claiming Trump is abandoning Ukraine and Europe. Trump strengthened NATO. I think Biden accidentally supported Ukraine. And just who was in thrall to Putin? I want to defeat Russia. I'm not sure what the point of Trump's rhetoric is. But I'm not worried right now.

Mission accomplished for Trump's radical Gaza plan? "Arab leaders are set to meet in Saudi Arabia on Friday for the first time to formulate a response to US President Donald Trump’s plan for the US to take ownership of Gaza, expel its Palestinian population and turn it into a Middle Eastern 'Riviera.'"

Mission accomplished for Trump's harsh language on NATO? "Denmark says it plans on injecting an additional 50 billion DKK ($7 billion) to its defense budget over 2025-2026." 

SOUTHCOM is getting a destroyer for a while. Time for The SOUTHCOM Queen?

Mission accomplished for Trump's harsh language about Zelensky? "Trump’s attempts to denigrate Zelenskyy have led to a surge in Ukrainian unity[.]" Zelensky might like that in an election.

Mission accomplished for Trump's attacks on European defenses? "The prospect of the U.S. removing its vast military and financial support for Ukraine, particularly as it begins negotiations for a peace without the involvement of Europe or Kyiv, has forced a reassessment of the European security architecture. "

China works on getting troops across the Taiwan Strait: "All this would be a rather ramshackle effort by American standards, but the Chinese believe it would be adequate against the Taiwanese. The key to such an invasion is keeping the U.S. Navy out of the war." I explored a "grains of sand" approach recently. 

Fake Hamas atrocity news too good for the media to fact check.

Does the CIA have too many agents with a license to type? And I'm not sure they're very good at that.

That was expected: "The commanding officer of the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman has been fired following a collision with a cargo ship near the Suez Canal, the Navy announced Thursday."

"'Germany is ready and willing to take on responsibility for the Baltic Sea, and is establishing itself as a strong partner,' Rear-Adml Haisch told The Telegraph." Thank you.

Mission accomplished? "Zelensky surrenders to Trump and 'will sign mineral deal within hours'[.]" But America will abandon Ukraine? Really?

Maybe, just maybe, Allah isn't on the side of Iran's mullahs. One day there will be a revolt and perhaps separatist movements that reject the rump empire's corrupt mullah regime. But I don't try to predict any more.

China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) builds and controls military-compliant ships and ports around the world. Which could come in handy for the PLA. 

Congratulations to Canada's NHL player team for defeating the U.S. team in the four-country tournament. I like hockey. And wanted to win. But Canada probably needs a sports win more than America. We'll get revenge in curling. Still, please don't stink on ice.

Hey, check out what we can see using a maneuverable space vessel?

Another "known wolf" Islamist killer in France operated inside the OODA loop to identify, incarcerate, and expel him.

Potemkin military with Chinese characters? I wouldn't assume the PLA can't fight. But perhaps its main purpose is to be shiny and look like a great achievement of Xi Jinping.

Rebel factions in Sudan unite in the face of defeats. 

Colombian city of Cúcuta experiences worst insurgent violence in decades. Unexpectedly!

German elections credit "opposition leader Friedrich Merz's centre-right CDU/CSU bloc with a clear lead of 28.7% to 29%, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 19.6% to 19.8%." Given the rampant "Hitler" and "Nazi accusations we see, I doubt AfD is far right. Greens are far worse, IMO.

My "mission accomplished" entries this week are intended to contemplate whether freaking out over Trump's outrageous language because you think it states official policy or objectives should be kept in check until the results start coming in. And later, I see this very timely video.

Kill the Enemy as Well as Their Missiles

Defending Navy warships must not consider shooting down inbound missiles the first line of defense.

The Navy is learning lessons from the Red Sea fight against the Houthi to prepare to fight China:

Navy brass says they are now able to tune ship radars, provide feedback and update tactics far more rapidly than when the hostilities started. Just analyzing engagement data has gone from 40 days or more to just a day or two, a massive gain that could prove critical in a Pacific fight.

But the lesson seems to be too focused on shooting down the inbound missiles more effectively. We really don't seem to be trying to win. Focusing on more efficiently shooting down missiles ignores the point of battle--destroying the enemy.

And unexpectedly®, the Houthi are more confident and popular for their long missile campaigns against Red Sea shipping and Israel. We created that confidence through lack of seriousness.

Better to learn the lessons of the World War II North Atlantic campaign that didn't focus on defeating the U-boat torpedoes but on sinking U-boats at sea and in port, or at least making it too risky for U-boats to persist in attacking the escorted merchant and troop ships.

We need to expand the scope of the problem from the terminal phase of the inbound munitions to the beginning of the kill chain where the missiles are launched--or even better, where produced. Are our Navy ships waging war or serving as shooting gallery ducks?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The photo is from the U.S. Navy.

Mission Accomplished: 1945 Edition

America came close to abandoning Europe when it was crippled and unable to resist an outside threat on its doorstep. The struggle continues to hold Europe as an asset.

Despite understanding that the Soviet Union was a major threat after defeating Germany and Japan, FDR had no plans to contain a triumphant USSR and even planned to get out of Europe after the war and leave it to the Europeans:

Roosevelt had known what he wanted in the postwar world: a new international body, the United Nations, to replace Wilson’s failed League; an open global economy to promote shared prosperity; a concert of great powers to keep the peace. But he hadn’t devised any real formula for stability in Europe, much less a backup plan if the Allies’ wartime comity gave way to postwar enmity. ...

And despite Churchill’s concern that the rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops would leave Europe at Stalin’s mercy, FDR had pledged, before his death, to do just that. “You really ought to bring up and discipline your own children,” he airily told Churchill in 1944; Europe was not America’s ward.

Fortunately, events forestalled that short-sighted withdrawal from Europe as the reality of the Soviet threat suddenly in the heart of Europe became clear.

Little did we know how close that threat was, actually.

Nor was Europe anywhere near to being able to handle that responsibility without America. Which shows that the impulse to leave Europe is not really based on Europe stepping up. It's just the impulse to bury our head in the sand and pretend all is well, for as long as our enemies grant us that delusion.

You can add chrome and tail fins to that basic 1945 model by pretending Europe without America will remain fully part of the West as an American ally. And by pretending you only oppose the current threat in order to face the more urgent threat. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Defending Europe isn't charity. It matters.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Bone is Thrown Away With Plenty of Meat Left

Goodbye B-1 bomber. If we need every swinging stick in the air for INDOPACOM, doesn't a long-range plane that doesn't add to overloading air bases close to China worth the price of keeping it a bit longer?

The B-1 bomber will be retired: 

In the next few years, the U.S. Air Force will say goodbye to the B-1 Lancer. The venerable bomber, known affectionately as the “Bone,” will be phased out, alongside the B-2 Spirit, in favor of the forthcoming B-21 Raider. But the B-1 will be difficult to replace, at least with respect to its specifications, which are impressive on paper. Although, in an era where air defense systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated, the non-stealth B-1’s ability to survive behind enemy lines has become imperiled, reducing the value of the strategic bomber in future conflicts against capable nation-states.

It's more than being non-stealthy given that the ancient B-52 clings to life as a bomb truck. I assume the issue is really operating cost compared to the B-52, notwithstanding the B-1's larger payload. The B-1's swing wing capability is no doubt a maintenance hog. 

What will it do prior to being phased out "before 2035"?

I don't know why the fast  B-1 couldn't serve in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as a long-range anti-ship bomber armed with anti-ship missiles. Or with long-range torpedoes. We could use land-based anti-ship capabilities, right? 

And what about using the B-1 as a long-range fighter?

We do have a window of vulnerability to fill, don't we?

UPDATE: The old girl still has teeth:

Two B-1B Lancers out of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, flew alongside three U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcons from Osan Air Base, South Korea, four Marine Corps F-35Bs from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, and four South Korean F-35As and F-15K Slam Eagles, according to news releases Thursday from the U.S. 7th Air Force and South Korean Ministry of National Defense.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The picture is from the article.

Do Not Let Narva, Estonia Become a Gray Area of Resolve

Recent Russian aggression against NATO, commonly called "hybrid" war, has been most evident in the Baltic Sea where NATO is reacting to defend critical infrastructure from Russian attacks (that Russia denies carrying out). Will that aggression and denial come ashore at Narva, Estonia?

While NATO is responding to Russian attacks in the Baltic Sea, the threat is broader:

Moscow has long been waging a shadow war against the military alliance, but the war in Ukraine has led to an escalation of hybrid, or gray-zone, attacks on NATO since the conflict began. ...

"It is an inherent part of Russian strategic thinking. The military is only part of it," Appathurai, the NATO secretary general's primary advisor on hybrid threats, told BI. "Their aim is to achieve political victory using the full spectrum of tools."

I worry that Russia could escalate their "little green men" attacks with an invasion of Estonia that captures Narva, posing as separatists pining for the embrace of Mother Russia. I explored in a recent Army article that threat and the necessary Army response within a NATO effort to deter or defeat such an invasion.

Failure to clearly win could break NATO by making the Article V defense guarantee appear hollow. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Art of the Deal or the Art of the Kneel?

We seem to be violating some basic terms of negotiating by ruling out things that Russia should fear if they don't agree to reasonable terms for ending Russia's war on Ukraine for good. But I admit that the image for diplomatic purposes can be different than the terms of a deal, whether that is America's military role in NATO or a peace deal in the Winter War of 2022.

Well of course Europe isn't the highest priority theater:

In just one speech by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, the most powerful member of NATO has thrown the world’s biggest military alliance into disarray, raising troubling questions about America’s commitment to European security.

Hegseth told almost 50 of Ukraine ’s Western backers on Wednesday that he had joined their meeting “to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”

It's the economy-of-force theater. It long has been. We've been reducing forces in Europe since we won the Cold War, excepting a small bump since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in 2022. Say, here's the visual:

And affordably preserving the shield that Europe is for America with so many fewer troops requires keeping Russia as far east as possible. 

Further, this overly open declaration of strategic reality will be exaggerated to fuel the European Union objective to erase American influence over Europe through NATO. The EU believes it should never let a faux crisis go to waste. Arghh!  

That said, we should not have given up negotiating assets--ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine, ruling out a NATO role to guarantee a "peace" deal, and minimizing the need for American troops in Europe or even Ukraine--before we even talk to Russia about ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Sure, we don't want to be too tied down in Europe. And Russia surely knows that. But make Russia give concessions to get our concessions! Don't kneel before Russia bearing gifts! If we do, Russia will demand more.

That is not the Art of the Ukraine Deal. We have to be smarter if we want to provide peace to keep Europe as an economy-of-force front rather than just get a period of Russia reloading to begin another war. 

Although of course I recognize the need to at least appear to Russians as an honest broker so any deal doesn't look like America dictating terms. So I don't take administration language that doesn't scream "Hitler!!" at Putin as a sign that American policy is pro-Putin. Ditto on the need to appear willing to walk away to get our European NATO allies to do more.

So we'll see. I withhold judgment until I see details when diplomacy--with Russia and with our NATO allies--unfolds.

UPDATE: Via Instapundit, just calm the ef down and stop letting your fears do your thinking.

Sound advice that I believe I laid out above despite my own worries. 

UPDATE: I really don't understand why Trump said Ukraine started the war or why he said Zelensky is not legitimate without a new election. 

Putin ordered the invasion. And if you say Ukraine provoked it by not wanting Russia to dominate it, I don't know what to say.

And Ukraine's laws provide for the suspension of elections during a state of emergency, which the invasion certainly is. Obviously, free elections are good. But maybe talk to Putin about that first.

Unless Trump is really playing the part of being nice to Russia to get Russia to give concessions, I have no explanation. We'll see. 

UPDATE: America must exploit Russia's growing weaknesses.

UPDATE: It would be brilliant if the Trump-Zelensky "feud" has been staged to lull Russia. Trump hasn't frozen military aid and assistance, after all. Perhaps it is to feed red meat to conservatives who oppose aiding Ukraine. Or scare Europeans into helping Ukraine more. Or maybe it is what it appears. Dunno.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

The Winter War of 2022 Looks to the Next War

Russia is seeking to rebuild its military to prepare for conflict before 2030, but the slaughter of its ground forces over nearly three years of the ongoing Winter War of 2022 makes Russians less than eager to die for their country in a foreign land. If Putin does expand his military, who will it fight? I'm tired of thinking Russia might need an "exit ramp" out of the war. That train pulled out of the station by the end of 2022, as far as I'm concerned. Russia needs to be defeated in Ukraine. Or there will be another war that Russia starts, somewhere, and sooner than we hope.

Strategypage addresses Russian ambitions to rebuild its military:

Russia is preparing its combat forces for battles that might or might not occur between now and 2030. Russian forces are still locked in combat with Ukrainians and leader Vladimir Putin is vague about how and when this war will end. The new American president wants to end the war quickly but the Russians are not responding.

The Russians hope their silence will provoke Western concessions before ever sitting down across a table. Our response should be silence. And more weapons for Ukraine. Because Strategypage also notes this:

What Russia is doing is building a lot more weapons and trying to recruit more troops. Few Russian men are willing to serve in the military, despite high pay and large payments when they agree to enlist. Potential Russian recruits know that going to Ukraine is often a death sentence. They know this because so many Russian soldiers have come back in coffins or not at all. The government makes large payments to families of dead soldiers. Russian military age men are reluctant to join the military, even with the financial incentives. Over a million military age men have left the country and those still in Russia avoid the recruiters, who often visit workplaces to arrest men who refused to cooperate with recruiters.

Ukraine is suffering from an infantry shortage. But Russia clearly has problems, too:

There are still about 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine and most are on the defensive. Ukraine keeps its casualties down by using its armed and camera- equipped drones for most of the fighting. Currently about 90 percent of Russian casualties are caused by Ukrainian drones.  

Russia claws forward because Ukraine's drones don't hold ground. But Russia's "human wave" attacks are generally done in small groups. This isn't the "human wave" assault of your imagination of past massed assaults by armies that truly had no practical limits on manpower and didn't care about losses. 

With only 200,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine, the idea that Russia can expend men without worry is clearly wrong. Russia wants to appear that way, but I suspect Putin has constructed a Potemkin Horde to bluff his way to a victory. And Russian talk of rebuilding its military is all about convincing the West that Russia must be unstoppable now if Russia is already planning for the next war.

I also suspect that Trump's talk of Putin caring about ending the bloodshed of the war and Trump's claim of "millions" of deaths rather than the hundreds of thousands in reality are an attempt to push past Putin's censorship that prevents the people of Russia from knowing about the high costs of the war they are waging. 

Despite years of warnings, it doesn't sound like America intends to abandon Ukraine:

Vance stated during a press conference following the meeting that the United States remains committed to ending the war and achieving a "durable, lasting peace" in Ukraine and not the "kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road."

But I'll wait to see the Definitions Section, of course.

We should make sure Russia loses this war so a next foreign war is less likely. 

But yeah, at this point I would consider a deal that concedes Russian control of pre-2022 occupied territory in parts of the Donbas and Crimea; and NATO strengthening of Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia if Russia attacks again--including battling Ukrainian corruption--as a victory for the West. Face it, after three years of bloodshed and suffering, Ukrainians won't die to get 2014 borders. Hell, Ukrainians might accept a ceasefire-in-place. Ideally, a deal based on the pre-war line of control could include making Russia quietly (and deniably) pay to rebuild Ukraine.* Putin's control of the state's security apparatus and media will allow him to boast of this great achievement. And who will dispute him?

*When I wrote that post, Russia's offensive had basically culminated. Their ground forces were shattered. I wrongly hoped Ukraine had reserves to launch a counteroffensive. As weeks and then months passed without a counteroffensive I began to worry that Russia was getting the most valuable commodity in war--time. Russia got the time to recover and prepare, and the much-delayed and openly telegraphed Ukrainian counteroffensive failed in summer 2023. So we have what we have.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

Zelensky stated “on February 7 that thousands of North Korean troops have returned to active combat in Kursk Oblast after a brief pause.”

Russia equips its BM-21s with crew-protection armor, anti-drone mesh for the rocket section, and electronic warfare system. Add an active protection system and that defines drone point defense.

Hmmm: “Senior Iranian military leaders have urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent months to approve the construction of a nuclear weapon, according to an unspecified Iranian official speaking to the Telegraph.” I suspect a decision to proceed means they already have nukes.

Japan is increasing its defense budget but relies on imports for a lot of defense equipment.

The Germans haven’t managed to down them or figure out where they come from: “A Bundeswehr spokesperson reportedly told Süddeutsche Zeitung that the German military has observed an increase in drones flying over German military facilities in an unspecified timeframe.”

Russia will reconstitute its military: "A partially reconstituted Russian military will still pose a significant threat to U.S. and Western interests in the European theater." That early threat is what I wrote about in Army magazine here.

Drone Line project: "the Ukrainian military will 'scale up' five existing drone regiments and brigades in the Ukrainian military and border guard service and will integrate infantry and drones into a single strike system, which will enable Ukrainian forces to create [defensive] kill zones 10 to 15 kilometers deep[.]" 

Is France's quasi-empire in Africa over? 

Ponzi scheme? "China has numerous economic problems, but the worst has to do with real estate debt and 200 million unneeded housing units."

Crawl, walk, run? "The Missile Defense Agency is moving quickly to gather ideas for President Donald Trump’s proposed 'Iron Dome for America' and hopes to make progress on some within the next two years." The need is there. 

Seeking modular anti-mine unmanned surface vessels: "The MCM Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) is central to this effort, a diesel-powered craft designed for various operational launching platforms, including the LCS, vessels of opportunity, or even shore locations."

That's just swell: "A Chinese spy balloon that crossed over the United States in 2023 was packed with American technology that could have enabled it to spy on Americans, according to two sources with direct knowledge of a technical analysis conducted by the U.S. military." Why bother with TikTok already here?

Hamas lets the world know it has not been defeated. TDR has film:

 

Fort Bragg is back. Named after another Bragg. 

The Dutch also work on logistics to sustain a NATO fight in the east.

More active duty military troops are committed to the southern border.

Britain's century-long security deal with Ukraine.

That may protect against suicide drones but traditional artillery fire would defeat it: "Russian troops have set up a 2km (1.24 mile) mesh netting 'tunnel' on a road linking Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine."

Huh: "Canada and the Philippines are in the final stages of negotiating a key defense pact that would allow their forces to hold larger military drills, said the Canadian ambassador to Manila while raising concerns over China’s 'provocative and unlawful actions' in the region." That's in addition, right!?

It's not a mothership launching anti-drone drones. It's a friggin' fighter drone launching guided weapons to knock down enemy drones. The prophecy is fulfilled.

Remember when the Army's need to be light and airmobile led to the Stryker light, wheeled vehicle? Well, it's getting up-armored. "Agile" light vehicles can't out-agile guided weapons.

I'm pretty sure it must be larger than a European corvette that's in the combat zone when it leaves port, but yes: "Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons at the Congressional Budget Office, said one option to expand the fleet quickly is to develop a 'small missile corvette.'" Finally! And networks!

When Trump says Putin wants to stop so many people from dying in the war, people seem to assume Trump is saying something nice about Putin. I take it as a ploy to get information into Russia that lots of Russian troops are dying in the invasion. Which is similar to what I've wanted to do to Iran. 

No Minsk III, okay?  

FFS, what are we teaching Marine officers? And if the Marines are that bad, how bad are the other service academies?

China sure hopes nothing unfortunate happens during our Taiwan Strait FONOPS. I hope we have significant overwatch.

The American secretary of defense has no plans to draw down troops in Europe, but it will certainly review needs for American forces globally. Hold what we have achieved.

The busy dozen Ukrainian F-16s: "Because the air defenses on both sides are so robust, no one has air superiority and keep their aircraft out of range of enemy air defense systems. The F-16s are most useful as another air defense weapon to destroy Russian cruise missile attacks."

If China can detect our stealth aircraft at very long range, why advertise the capability rather than ambush us in a war?

That's the big tragedy of the bloody war? "The consumption of aviation fuel has been significantly increased by the on-going war in Ukraine, according to a journal report published on Wednesday." FFS. 

Somebody (coughrussiacough) has attempted to sabotage a German corvette while under construction. It's part of a pattern of attacks.

That's sad. But it's Russia's problem now, with its new naval base there, no? 

I absolutely agree that Ukraine should be included in negotiations with Russia. Don't let Putin delegitimize Ukraine's sovereignty. We made that mistake in Afghanistan. And our European allies should participate. But if "Europe" means the EU, to Hell with that.

This involves using Purchasing Power Parity: "Based on one key economic metric, Russian defense spending eclipsed all other European countries combined last year and is projected to increase further in 2025, according to a leading defense think tank."

Diego Garcia is important for American missions in INDOPACOM and CENTCOM. Indeed. 

The Axis of Atomic a-holes. Would Pakistan help Iran get nukes? Seems unlikely. But who knows?

And it is not deployed via torpedo tubes: "China has reportedly developed a drone that can operate under water, on the surface and in the air." 

The Pentagon is establishing a counter-drone task force. How about fighter drones, as I proposed in Army?

American talk about controlling Greenland is all about denying China the ability to go from a so-called "near-Arctic state" to an Arctic state at the West's expense. 

Will South Korea again get a left-wing government that seeks closer ties with North Korea? Can America do anything to influence South Korea?

Is Bangladesh the next failed state? It's long been a bastion of Islamic calm largely unaffected--until recently--by the Islamist radicalism that seeks to define all Islam in their murderous image.

Can Europe avert a Third Congo War? Put Belgium in charge of that mission. 

The terrorist is the weapon, not the particular means to murder.

The Philippines will buy short-range Indian air defense missiles. 

China is a-hole: "A People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 fighter released flares 30 meters away in front of a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon on patrol in the South China Sea on Tuesday prompting the Australian government to express its concern to China on such actions."

Good: "Within a year, the United States could have a single integrated grid of sensors from under the sea to space to bolster its air and missile defenses[.]" CONUS is not a sanctuary.

China appears to be building a new class of super carrier. I wonder what their--or the PLAN's in general--purpose is. Sea control? Distractions? Peacetime global power projection? Or is there any plan for use at all?

Sending old artillery shells to Russia paid off: "North Korea sought to acquire priceless combat experience, test weapons systems, gain access to Russian military technologies, and secure Moscow’s further assistance in countering economic sanctions." And they can rebuild their stockpile with new shells.

India (again) vows to reform its dysfunctional and corrupt defense industry. Not that we don't have problems.

China is rehearsing for an invasion of Taiwan. No doubt. That's a core objective. I have no idea when China might consider that option.

Could the B-21 be the most important warplane of the century? Well, it's early yet. But long-range anti-ship and ground attack in support of ground operations will be very important. 

Potemkin Peter the Great: "The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call."

I'm doubtful our modern practice of ending a career with a single mistake is the right practice, but right now this represents the end of at least one Navy career. There will be an investigation.

The center-left proto-imperial EU fanboys (and girls) are worried their purple wall will fall: "Leftist parties in Brussels are terrified that their undemocratic cordon sanitaire against the Right will eventually collapse if the CDU-led EPP follows the lead of the German party at the European Union level." 

China's vassal, Myanmar, is getting a bit ... unsettled.

The stealthy Zumwalt trilogy is losing its empty guns and getting hypersonic missiles. 

China's "partnership without limits" doesn't prevent China from exploiting sanctioned Russia by demanding deep discounts for its purchase of Russian natural gas. But it is unreasonable for America to want access to Ukrainian strategic rare earths in exchange for our military help?

I've noticed that European media types are increasingly abandoning their thin facade of neutrality to openly--and dishonestly--stomp their feet about Trump. Note that they were in thrall to Obama. Those are the types who would run Europe if the proto-imperial European Union gets its way. 

Why didn't Israel intercept or sink those Iranian transport ships? "Iran received a large shipment of a chemical precursor for solid missile propellant from China on February 13."

China's J-36 prototype versus the operational American F-35. 

LEED to replace Nulka as a ship decoy to distract inbound missiles.

I suspect HTS lets this drag on to leverage Western aid: "Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government. " 

Israel wants the ceasefire amended to retain five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon.

Decades of rot aren't fixed overnight: "The German army's battle-readiness is less than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, military officials, lawmakers and defence experts told Reuters." 

I assume the defense budget can be cut without harming defense. Anything that huge has BS throughout it.

In space, no one can hear you wage war. 

I'm experimenting with shorter entries.