Saturday, September 08, 2012

Stumbling To Something

Mali knows that they can't retake their north, but are divided over whether ECOWAS will be more interested in settling rump Mali's internal divisions or reversing the Tuareg secession and jihadi exploitation of that secession.

Mali's request for ECOWAS intervention is less than inspiring:

Days have passed since Mali's interim government made a formal request to neighboring nations for military help to try to take back the country's north, which fell to Islamist rebels after a coup five months ago.

But in a bizarre twist, the Malian government is refusing to confirm to its own people that it has made the regional appeal. Confusion in the capital, Bamako, is growing and heightening the perception that the soldiers who led the March coup — but were then pressured into handing power back to civilians — are still calling the shots.

But Mali needs help (as I've argued from the start):

A copy of the request dated Sept. 1, which was seen by AP, shows that Interim President Dioncounda Traore asked the West African regional bloc of 15 nations to provide five battalions to try to take back the north. Mali is also asking for air support to destroy rebel bases in their remote hideouts, as well as to gather intelligence.

Air and intelligence requires Western forces--aircraft and special forces. I assume France. Maybe the US in support of France.

Assuming 3,000 troops from 15 countries will create a solid force of five battalions is a stretch. And I don't know if ECOWAS is more concerned about battling secession, terrorism, or coups. A 3-battalion French Foreign Legion regiment would be far superior to a similar amount of ECOWAS troops from various nations.

Things seem to be edging toward somebody doing something.