The French have recognized that areas of Syria are beyond the control of the nominal state of Syria:
Amid mounting calls for the international community to do more to prevent bloodshed, France — Syria's onetime colonial ruler — has pushed to secure "liberated zones" in Syria.
France has increased its contacts with armed opposition groups, and started giving aid last Friday to local citizens' councils in five cities outside the government's control, the diplomatic source said. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius promised last week that such aid was in the pipeline.
The aid is notably helping restore water supplies, bakeries and schools affected by Syria's civil war, with the aim of helping rebel-held areas run themselves, the diplomatic official said.
This sounds an awful lot like my notion for a Lexington Rule in international relations as a modification of Westphalian conduct.
This undermines Assad's control of all Syria. But Syria's inability to control all of Syria is the real source of the French action.
Yet Russia continues to shield Assad against Western intervention.
I just don't think Assad can control all of Syria. Unless Assad' mobilization of the reserves goes better than it has been, I don't think Assad has enough troops to extend his control of territory out from the core Alawite coastal areas as far as Damascus and Aleppo.
If Russia wants their security guarantee to Assad to hold up, Russia needs to accept that Assad will not rule all of Syria when the dust settles. Which will at least allow Russia to avoid the unpleasant choice of halting limited Western intervention by militarily confronting the West or allowing Assad to be defeated in totality trying to fight for the entire country.
