But perhaps I've identified the wrong prime actor in this drama:
This hegemony is the growing source of tension in Asia today. Modern China is the Germany of a century ago — a rising, expanding, have-not power seeking its place in the sun. The story of the first half of the 20th century was Europe’s attempt to manage Germany’s rise. We know how that turned out. The story of the next half-century will be how Asia accommodates and/or contains China’s expansion.
Could be. Perhaps my impressions of Russia in Europe have been the equivalent of focusing on Italian aggression in Africa in the pre-Second World War years. The real action is watching out for China in Asia and wondering whether Russia goes along or wakes up and flips to our side.