Washington has repeatedly criticized the planned vote.
"We think that Taiwan's referendum to apply to the United Nations under the name Taiwan is a provocative policy," Rice said last month. "It unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage."
Perhaps. By this view, a vote for independence will only provoke China to invade Taiwan.
Given that China is building up forces and consistently claims Taiwan, I get the feeling that invading is a matter of calculating the balance of forces and not any Taiwanese declaration. As far as Peking is concenred, Taiwan's de facto independence must be ended regardless of the legal situation.
Further, I've come to think that Taiwan made a mistake not declaring independence between 1992 after the Soviet Union collapsed and 1996 after the Chinese fired missiles over Taiwan but before Chinese arms build ups reached today's point.
If that logic still hold true, might not the Taiwanese one day regret failing to press for independence now? Rather than just wait for China to decide to attack, shouldn't we be looking for an opportune time to have Taiwan declare independence when China cannot effectively respond?
In one sense, that is what Taiwan is doing--sort of--by having a vote on "independence." One thing that isn't considered, however, is the impact of the Taiwanese voting "no" on that question.
Given all the talk of a "yes" vote provoking an invasion, the irony is that a "no" vote might simply provide China with the justification for doing what they have always claimed they will do--absorb Taiwan and make it part of China even if they must use military force. If the Taiwanese vote no, the Chinese could claim to be rescuing the Taiwanese who have declared at the ballot their desire to be part of China.
If the Taiwanese vote on this question, the least dangerous vote for them is a "yes" vote. If the Chinese really want a smooth Olympics, the Chinese will have to quietly accept the declaration for many months--perhaps missing a window to strike while the disruption of the status quo is fresh. Or, if the Chinese aren't planning to attack Taiwan this year, ramping up an invasion as a result of the vote before the Chinese think they are ready might lead to a Chinese military defeat.
Or, if China attacks prior to the Olympics, at least their claim to be speaking for Taiwanese will be obviously false and the Taiwanese may have a stronger sense of freedom that will boost their morale and ability to hold out until we can help or even defeat the Chinese. On the downside, there might be a smaller chance that the United States and Japan will intervene if the Chinese strike quickly.
Interesting times.
