Strategypage writes ominously:
Sunni and Shia Arab politicians have united in opposing Kurdish attempts to claim the city of Kirkuk, and nearby oil fields, as part of the Kurdish territory in the north. This is drawing the line in the sand, between Arab and Kurdish attitudes on Kirkuk. Next step is a civil war, unless one side backs down.
Barring massively escalated Iranian assistance to Sadr or other Shia death squads, up to actual Iranian forces, I've had trouble seeing where the next threat to our success in Iraq could arise. The Arab-Kurd divide is surely one area that could generate a crisis.
I hope the Kurds don't mistake their prosperity of late for a glimpse of their independent future. I hope that Turkish and Iranian attacks on Kurdish territory remind the Kurds of Iraq that making Iraq their enemy is foolish. Their safety lies in remaining a partner within Iraq. The Kurds cannot hold Kirkuk in the face of a hostile Iraq. And the Kurds cannot thrive or even survive as an independent state isolated by hostile Turkey, Iran, and Iraq.
I hope that the Kurds realize that if the Kurds trigger a fight between Iraq and the Kurds over Kirkuk, we will not side with the Kurds. All that silly talk by some Americans about withdrawing our forces to the Kurdish regions and abandoning Iraq should things go wrong there is exactly backwards. Our main interest lies with Iraq to the south whether the Kurds are part of Iraq or not. We will help the Kurds within Iraq to reach prosperity and self-rule beyond their wildest dreams of even a decade ago. But only if the Kurds don't screw up a united Iraq.
Further, the simple fact that Sunni and Shia Arabs have united to oppose the Kurds doesn't spell disaster as long as the competition is confined to politics. Shifting political alliances are normal. That's the key. Keep disputes confined to peaceful political means and nobody has to love each other--just abide by the rule of law. Even Kirkuk could be settled if this is kept in mind. Michigan lost Toledo a long time ago because the state of Ohio had more leverage than the territory of Michigan. Somebody needs to lose more inside Kirkuk when the settlement is finally reached--either the Kurds, Sunni Arabs, or Shias. The key will be making sure that those who lose inside Kirkuk wins something outside the city that makes a settlement worth it.
I can only assume we are working hard behind the scenes to find a settlement to this dispute.
