Critics say Chen's policies have allowed Taiwan's once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait. Washington has made it clear it finds Chen's China policies dangerous and provocative — particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the island's political separateness from the mainland.
A March 22 presidential election to chose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists' Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.
The DPP wants to formalize the independence Taiwan has had since an inconclusive civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held off out of fears that China would make good on threats to attack. In contrast, the Nationalists favor more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification.
Economic worries, some scandal, and worries about provoking China, it seems, gave the Nationalists a win. Though how you provoke someone who insists they will own you eventually is a mystery to me. This party, despite the name, agrees with China that Taiwan and China are part of one country.
I've already noted that the upcoming referendum could be read by China as an excuse to conquer Taiwan should the Taiwanese vote against the idea of independence. This vote might provide the same excuse--with or without a referendum on Taiwan's status this March--for China to invade Taiwan this year.
Or the Chinese might think they've dodged a bullet and can go ahead with their Olympics and worry about Taiwan later.
And I assume that significant arms purchases by Taiwan will be scuttled by the Nationalist majority. That, too, would make it easier for the Chinese to wait in order to invade so that China's arms build up can outstrip Taiwan's feeble armaments efforts to pave the way for an invasion later when an attack won't be so risky.
This might have been a dangerous vote, too.
Of course, from the Chinese point of view, they're all dangerous votes. That's the point, now isn't it?
