I'm not predicting it, but were I in charge of China and absorbing Taiwan was as important to me as it seems to Peking, I'd strongly consider an invasion.
More broadly, my point is that China once could not invade Taiwan; one day they will be strong enough to virtually guarantee success; and today China is somewhere in between those two points, and moving toward the latter capability. And the Taiwanese don't seem to be focused enough to improve their defenses in order to really have an effect on this formula. I think China could mount an invasion tomorrow if they are willing to take the casualties, and have a decent shot at success.
But China might really want their Olympics to go off as a pageant showing they have arrived (like the 1936 Berlin Olympics) without the complications of a pre-games invasion. Just because I'd exploit the Olympics to gain the element of surprise doesn't mean the Chinese think they need to do so.
So if China doesn't plan to hit Taiwan in early 2008, could the Taiwanese take advantage of the Olympics?
Consider that Mad Minerva noted this news:
In case you missed it yesterday, Taiwanese president Chen gave a speech strongly worded in favor of formal independence for the island nation.
(Look, it's already DE FACTO independent, so I don't want to hear any diplo-speak whining.)
Chen also supported reforming the Taiwanese constitution and changing the island's name from "Republic of China" to "Taiwan."
I've mentioned that in retrospect it is a shame that Taiwan didn't declare independence in 1996 after the Chinese crude attempt at missile bullying exposed the fact that the Chinese not only couldn't invade Taiwan but couldn't even locate the American navy maneuvering off of Taiwan.
Considering that in another decade China will be more powerful than today, might not the supporters of democracy on Taiwan lament that Taiwan didn't declare independence in 2007?
Or in 2008? On the eve of the Peking Olympics?
If China isn't planning to invade Taiwan, would the Chinese have to just suck it up and ignore the so-called provocation if Taiwan declared independence in early 2008? Would China risk the Olympics by resorting to military action to counter the declaration? And if China won't risk their coming out party to immediately attack Taiwan, will the time that passes until after the Olympics provide legitimacy to the declaration and get Taiwan safely into the new year and past our presidential election campaign that might paralyze our reaction?
Heck, if the declaration provoked a hasty Chinese military attack, this would increase the odds of failure for China and perhaps cement independence with a military victory, too. And China would lose their coming out party.
I'd feel better if Taiwan's military was better prepared to back up such a plan, but I wonder if it would be wise for the Taiwanese to consider this option.
I guess it all depends on whether you believe the Chinese will stop wanting Taiwan and accept a free Taiwan if we can drag this stalemate out long enough. Or might China falter and provide a window of chaos or weakness that Taiwan can use to declare its freedom with more safety from a conter-strike? Either theory may even be right. They certainly have the advantage of not starting anything by declaring independence that might spiral out of control while the Chinese government is fully in control.
But if China won't evolve to accept a free and independent Taiwan, really, just when is the perfect time to anger the communists in Peking?
