So although the people who live in Baker's world are thrilled that there will be a conference over Iraq, it is not the Baker/Munich sellout of Iraqi democracy that realists would so dearly love:
CONTRARY to the impression left by many, this coming weekend's international conference in Baghdad has nothing to do with last year's Baker-Hamilton panel. It's an idea first launched by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari in 2005, and recently adopted by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Maliki and Zebari rejected the Baker-Hamilton recommendation that the United States discuss the future of Iraq with Iran and Syria to the exclusion of the elected Iraqi government. Thus, the conference is a sign that the Bush administration has definitely rejected the key recommendation of the Baker-Hamilton group.
Those who see the decision to attend as a sign that Washington is eating humble pie on Iran are also wrong.
Indeed, the Iraqis aren't going to the trouble of oranizing the conference just to surrender to the bad guys:
Iraqi officials claim they have "names, addresses and a mass of other evidence" indicating Syria's "extensive involvement" in the Sunni-led insurgency. They also claim to possess "compelling evidence" of Iran's efforts to build networks in Iraq, especially in the south.
The Baghdad conference provides an opportunity for shaping an international plan to help Iraq fight its enemies. In that context, it could become harder for Iran and Syria to continue investing in terrorists and militias in Iraq. At the same time, the so-called moderate Arab states that have acted as cheerleaders for insurgents (not to mention tolerating the activities of anti-Iraq groups on their soil) would have to abandon such destructive tactics.
A lot of realists will be disappointed when the conference ends and nobody waves any papers on the tarmac boasting we've achieved peace in our time--with the Iraqis reading what we told them to do the next day in the newspapers.
I wish the Iraqis well on this conference about their future. A strange alliance of Sunni fanatics, Iranians, Europeans, and "progressives" in America want their efforts to build democracy to fail.
