Similarly, Adm. William Fallon, who has just left the Pacific Command in Hawai'i to take over the Central Command that is fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, said in his final report to the U.S. Congress that the objective of Sino-U.S. exchanges was "to increase transparency between our respective militaries."
Further, he said such military exchanges, which were gradually expanded during his watch at Pacific Command, were intended "to break down barriers to understanding and reduce the potential for miscalculation."
Adm. Timothy Keating, who is scheduled to replace Fallon later this month, told a congressional committee that he planned to continue "a series of robust engagement with, principally, the People's Liberation Army." Referring to the China-Taiwan confrontation, Keating said: "If we deal with some frequency at several levels with the Chinese, if we exercise with them -- all services -- if we ensure they are aware of our capabilities and our intent, I think we will go a long way to diffusing potential strife across the Strait of Taiwan."
I think this is a terrible mistake.
The Chinese know we are more powerful than they are. They know that we have better technology. The even know we have better training. Yet we think that showing them our fleet and air power up close will make them fear tangling with us?
Hogwash.
If the Chinese go to war with us--over Taiwan for example--they will do so not because they think that they are militarily superior to us. They will go to war because they think they can beat us. That's a big difference.
If the Chinese go to war with us, they will believe that some factor outweighs our military superiority according to standard measures. They may believe we are too far to mass our power in time to make a difference. They may believe our fear of casualties will prevent us from fighting and a quick kill of one of our carriers will deter us. They may believe they have some super weapon that nullifies our advantages. They may simply believe we are too morally weak to fight.
I don't know what the reasons for Chinese confidence will be, but if they risk war with us they will by definition believe they can counter our apparent advantage.
And giving the Chinese a look at our forces will likely just give the Chinese reasons to believe they can overcome our defenses rather than believe they should just meekly accept the status quo over Taiwan or whatever else the Chinese would like to fight over. Remember, a Chinese decision to go to war with us needs to be rational as they see it--not as we see it. Shoot, I'm not even sure who the decisionmakers are on the question of war.
I was stunned a year ago when I read we were restarting these visits. I have not changed my mind. This program is a grave error on our part. The Chinese won't learn what we want to teach them.
