Monday, July 31, 2006

While the Focus is on Beirut

Israel may not have the time it needs to smash up Hizbollah.

I believe Israeli air strikes in their strategic bombing campaign are futile and counter-productive, but the civilian casualties under the rules of war are the responsibility of Hizbollah which not only fights among civilians but forces civilans to remain while Hizbollah fires in order to cause civilan casualties.

That said, Israel should be far more concerned about inflicting civilian casualties if for no other reason than the losses are putting pressure on Israel to halt their war before they get significant results. And the attacks are simply not stopping the rocket attacks. What has Israel gained from the attacks?

And in the meantime, Israeli ground operations are moving forward out of the spotlight against Hamas (remember they started this whole thing):

While most attention is on the Israel-Lebanon conflict and the monthlong Israeli offensive in Gaza, Israeli forces carry out nightly arrest raids in the West Bank, searching for suspected militants. Often more than 20 are detained in a single night. ...

Islamic Jihad said the leader of its militant wing in Nablus, Hani Awijan, 29, was killed by Israeli undercover troops. They came to arrest him while he was playing soccer with friends and relatives, the group said. Another Islamic Jihad militant was also killed.


And in Lebanon itself where Hizbollah fights:

Israeli ground operations appear to be using paratroopers and other elite infantry to hunt down and kill Hizbollah rocket launching teams. Hizbollah has not got a lot of trained people. Kill them, and they are hard to replace. There are only so many rocket launcher teams. Kill them, and no one will be available to take the rockets out of their hiding places and launch them. Right now, this battle is being won by the Israelis, because Hizbollah has not been able to launch many longer (over 20 kilometers) rockets at more densely populated areas deeper in Israel. Most of the rockets are short range ones. The Israeli attack on the transportation system in southern Lebanon has made it difficult to move large objects, like big rockets, into position for launch.


Strategypage also says the bombing is doing harm to Hizbollah but I have my doubts on that score. UAVs, special ops, and loitering aircraft could still find and attack the larger rockets as they move.

If instead of inflicting civilian casualties, which is what Hizbollah wants, the IAF had been making noisy distractions north by sonic booming Beirut and the Bekaa Valley while using very limited and precise strikes against large rockets and identified targets in support of the ground forces who are having success, the press would still be distracted from covering Hamas and small ground ops in southern Lebanon. Israel would then have had the weeks or even months it needs to really hurt Hizbollah. Remember, even Saudi Arabia wanted Hizbollah hurt. The Arab League refused to condemn Israel alone, and Lebanese Sunnis and Christians despised Hizbollah.

Now it is a race against time for Israel to hurt Hizbollah. And it is all Israel's fault. I know they aren't used to having any internaional support, but this time Israel blew it.